Macro Intelligence · Yearly board

2024

Yearly aggregate · 52 week regimes · drill into children for finer reads

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Yearly

2024 — 52 weeks across 4 quarters

Dashboard from the materialized period object + the de-blended store. Actuals are deterministic; synthesis (below) is narrated for the current period only.

Headline — where each bloc stands

Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder

Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.

Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion

Indicators — pick a metric, compare blocs · recession shading + crosshair

One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.

Per-region breakdown — 2024 vs 2023, with trend

Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper

A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value
B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric

Whole-board snapshot — parallel coordinates · parallel coordinates

Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2024).

Audit trail — detail tables
📊 Data verdicts · 52 week(s) in period · deterministic, no narration

Standing regime — start → end, per bloc

United States
stagflationary → disinflationary stall
W05: stagflationary → overheating / late-cycle · W09: overheating / late-cycle → stagflationary · W14: stagflationary → overheating / late-cycle · W31: overheating / late-cycle → disinflationary stall · W33: disinflationary stall → stagflationary · W35: stagflationary → disinflationary stall · W44: disinflationary stall → stagflationary · W46: stagflationary → disinflationary stall · W48: disinflationary stall → stagflationary · W49: stagflationary → overheating / late-cycle · W50: overheating / late-cycle → disinflationary stall
China
deflation watch · held all period
Euro area
stagflationary → disinflationary stall
W09: stagflationary → disinflationary stall
Japan
overheating / late-cycle · held all period

Mechanisms fired across the period

United States
  • M10 ×34 curve_inversion
  • M6 ×24 growth_slowdown
  • M13 ×16 contraction_easing
  • M5 ×4 growth_acceleration
  • M2 ×4 inflation_surprise_down
  • M9 ×3 yield_spike
China
  • M5 ×9 growth_acceleration
  • M3 ×8 policy_easing
  • M11 ×8 china_credit_impulse
  • M13 ×5 contraction_easing
  • M6 ×4 growth_slowdown
Euro area
  • M3 ×22 policy_easing
  • M13 ×11 contraction_easing
  • M6 ×9 growth_slowdown
  • M9 ×8 yield_spike
Japan
  • M2 ×20 inflation_surprise_down
  • M9 ×16 yield_spike
  • M4 ×12 policy_tightening
  • M12 ×12 boj_normalization
  • M1 ×5 inflation_surprise_up

Net indicator moves (first refreshed value → last)

United States
  • core_cpi: 0.36 → 0.30 -0.06 (2024-01-01 → 2024-12-11)
  • core_pce: 3.16 → 2.80 -0.36 (2024-01-01 → 2024-12-20)
  • cpi_yoy: 3.09 → 2.70 -0.39 (2024-01-01 → 2024-12-11)
  • fx: 102.41 → 108.00 +5.59 (2024-01-05 → 2024-12-27)
  • gdp: 0.80 → 3.10 +2.30 (2024-01-01 → 2024-12-19)
  • pmi_mfg: 47.40 → 48.40 +1.00 (2024-01-03 → 2024-12-02)
  • pmi_svc: 50.60 → 52.10 +1.50 (2024-01-05 → 2024-12-04)
  • policy_rate: 5.50 → 4.50 -1.00 (2024-01-07 → 2024-12-29)
  • slope_2s10s: -0.35 → 0.31 +0.66 (2024-01-05 → 2024-12-27)
  • unemployment: 3.70 → 4.20 +0.50 (2024-01-05 → 2024-12-06)
  • yield_10y: 4.05 → 4.62 +0.57 (2024-01-05 → 2024-12-27)
  • yield_2y: 4.40 → 4.31 -0.09 (2024-01-05 → 2024-12-27)
China
  • cpi_yoy: -0.50 → 0.20 +0.70 (2023-12-09 → 2024-12-09)
  • fx: 7.11 → 7.30 +0.19 (2024-01-05 → 2024-12-27)
  • gdp: 4.90 → 4.60 -0.30 (2023-10-18 → 2024-10-18)
  • pmi_mfg: 49.20 → 50.10 +0.90 (2024-01-01 → 2024-12-01)
  • pmi_svc: 50.40 → 50.00 -0.40 (2023-12-31 → 2024-11-30)
  • policy_rate: 3.45 → 3.10 -0.35 (2023-12-20 → 2024-12-20)
  • slope_2s10s: 0.28 → 0.56 +0.28 (2024-01-05 → 2024-12-27)
  • unemployment: 5.20 → 5.10 -0.10 (2024-01-01 → 2024-12-01)
  • yield_10y: 2.52 → 1.69 -0.82 (2024-01-05 → 2024-12-27)
  • yield_2y: 2.24 → 1.13 -1.10 (2024-01-05 → 2024-12-27)
Euro area
  • cpi_yoy: 2.90 → 2.20 -0.70 (2024-01-05 → 2024-12-18)
  • fx: 1.09 → 1.04 -0.05 (2024-01-05 → 2024-12-27)
  • gdp: 0.20 → -0.30 -0.50 (2024-01-05 → 2024-12-18)
  • pmi_mfg: 44.40 → 45.20 +0.80 (2024-01-02 → 2024-12-16)
  • pmi_svc: 48.80 → 51.40 +2.60 (2024-01-04 → 2024-12-16)
  • policy_rate: 4.50 → 3.15 -1.35 (2023-12-14 → 2024-12-12)
  • unemployment: 6.50 → 6.30 -0.20 (2023-11-30 → 2024-12-02)
  • yield_10y: 2.90 → 2.81 -0.09 (2024-01-01 → 2024-12-01)
Japan
  • core_cpi: 2.70 → 1.70 -1.00 (2023-12-22 → 2024-12-20)
  • cpi_yoy: 2.80 → 2.90 +0.10 (2023-12-22 → 2024-12-20)
  • fx: 144.76 → 157.75 +12.98 (2024-01-05 → 2024-12-27)
  • policy_rate: -0.10 → 0.25 +0.35 (2023-12-19 → 2024-12-19)
  • unemployment: 2.60 → 2.50 -0.10 (2023-12-26 → 2024-12-27)
  • yield_10y: 0.73 → 1.09 +0.36 (2024-01-01 → 2024-12-01)

Busiest week: 2024-W16 (8 active mechanisms) · Quietest: 2024-W29 (2 active)

Synthesis

(historical period — no Claude narration run)

Decompose

2024-Q1
quarterly board
2024-Q2
quarterly board
2024-Q3
quarterly board
2024-Q4
quarterly board