Macro Intelligence · Quarterly board

2024-Q3

Quarterly aggregate · 13 week regimes · drill into children for finer reads

Quarterly

2024-Q3 — 13 weeks across 3 months

Dashboard from the materialized period object + the de-blended store. Actuals are deterministic; synthesis (below) is narrated for the current period only.

Headline — where each bloc stands

Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder

Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.

Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion

Indicators — pick a metric, compare blocs · recession shading + crosshair

One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.

Per-region breakdown — 2024-Q3 vs 2024-Q2, with trend

Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper

A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value

B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric

Whole-board snapshot — parallel coordinates · parallel coordinates

Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2024-Q3).

Audit trail — detail tables

📊 Data verdicts · 13 week(s) in period · deterministic, no narration

Standing regime — start → end, per bloc

United States

overheating / late-cycle → disinflationary stall

W31: overheating / late-cycle → disinflationary stall · W33: disinflationary stall → stagflationary · W35: stagflationary → disinflationary stall

China

deflation watch → disinflationary stall

W32: deflation watch → disinflationary stall

Euro area

disinflationary stall · held all period

Japan

overheating / late-cycle · held all period

Mechanisms fired across the period

United States

M10 ×8 curve_inversion
M6 ×5 growth_slowdown
M13 ×4 contraction_easing

China

M13 ×5 contraction_easing
M3 ×4 policy_easing
M11 ×4 china_credit_impulse

Euro area

M3 ×5 policy_easing
M6 ×1 growth_slowdown

Japan

M4 ×7 policy_tightening
M12 ×7 boj_normalization
M2 ×6 inflation_surprise_down
M1 ×5 inflation_surprise_up

Net indicator moves (first refreshed value → last)

United States

core_cpi: 0.17 → 0.30 +0.13 (2024-07-01 → 2024-09-11)
core_pce: 2.81 → 2.70 -0.11 (2024-07-01 → 2024-09-27)
cpi_yoy: 2.94 → 2.50 -0.44 (2024-07-01 → 2024-09-11)
fx: 104.88 → 100.42 -4.46 (2024-07-05 → 2024-09-27)
gdp: 3.30 → 3.00 -0.30 (2024-07-01 → 2024-09-26)
pmi_mfg: 48.50 → 47.20 -1.30 (2024-07-01 → 2024-09-03)
pmi_svc: 48.80 → 51.50 +2.70 (2024-07-03 → 2024-09-05)
policy_rate: 5.50 → 5.00 -0.50 (2024-07-07 → 2024-09-29)
slope_2s10s: -0.32 → 0.20 +0.52 (2024-07-05 → 2024-09-27)
unemployment: 4.10 → 4.20 +0.10 (2024-07-05 → 2024-09-06)
yield_10y: 4.28 → 3.75 -0.53 (2024-07-05 → 2024-09-27)
yield_2y: 4.60 → 3.55 -1.05 (2024-07-05 → 2024-09-27)

China

cpi_yoy: 0.30 → 0.60 +0.30 (2024-06-12 → 2024-09-09)
fx: 7.27 → 7.01 -0.26 (2024-07-05 → 2024-09-27)
gdp: 5.30 → 4.70 -0.60 (2024-04-16 → 2024-07-15)
pmi_mfg: 49.40 → 49.80 +0.40 (2024-07-01 → 2024-09-01)
pmi_svc: 50.50 → 50.30 -0.20 (2024-06-30 → 2024-08-31)
policy_rate: 3.45 → 3.35 -0.10 (2024-06-20 → 2024-09-20)
slope_2s10s: 0.63 → 0.76 +0.14 (2024-07-05 → 2024-09-29)
unemployment: 5.20 → 5.10 -0.10 (2024-07-01 → 2024-09-01)
yield_10y: 2.28 → 2.25 -0.02 (2024-07-05 → 2024-09-29)
yield_2y: 1.65 → 1.49 -0.16 (2024-07-05 → 2024-09-29)

Euro area

cpi_yoy: 2.50 → 2.20 -0.30 (2024-07-02 → 2024-09-18)
fx: 1.08 → 1.12 +0.04 (2024-07-05 → 2024-09-27)
gdp: 0.20 → 0.10 -0.10 (2024-07-02 → 2024-09-18)
pmi_mfg: 45.80 → 44.80 -1.00 (2024-07-01 → 2024-09-23)
pmi_svc: 52.80 → 50.50 -2.30 (2024-07-03 → 2024-09-23)
policy_rate: 4.25 → 3.65 -0.60 (2024-06-06 → 2024-09-12)
unemployment: 6.40 → 6.40 0.00 (2024-07-02 → 2024-08-30)
yield_10y: 3.11 → 2.83 -0.28 (2024-07-01 → 2024-09-01)

Japan

core_cpi: 1.70 → 1.70 0.00 (2024-06-21 → 2024-09-20)
cpi_yoy: 2.80 → 3.00 +0.20 (2024-06-21 → 2024-09-20)
fx: 161.36 → 145.08 -16.28 (2024-07-05 → 2024-09-27)
policy_rate: 0.10 → 0.25 +0.15 (2024-06-14 → 2024-09-20)
unemployment: 2.60 → 2.60 0.00 (2024-06-28 → 2024-08-30)
yield_10y: 1.04 → 0.85 -0.19 (2024-07-01 → 2024-09-01)

Busiest week: 2024-W31 (7 active mechanisms) · Quietest: 2024-W29 (2 active)

Synthesis

(historical period — no Claude narration run)

Decompose