Macro Intelligence · Quarterly board

2024-Q2

Quarterly aggregate · 13 week regimes · drill into children for finer reads

Quarterly

2024-Q2 — 13 weeks across 3 months

Dashboard from the materialized period object + the de-blended store. Actuals are deterministic; synthesis (below) is narrated for the current period only.

Headline — where each bloc stands

Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder

Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.

Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion

Indicators — pick a metric, compare blocs · recession shading + crosshair

One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.

Per-region breakdown — 2024-Q2 vs 2024-Q1, with trend

Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper

A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value

B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric

Whole-board snapshot — parallel coordinates · parallel coordinates

Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2024-Q2).

Audit trail — detail tables

📊 Data verdicts · 13 week(s) in period · deterministic, no narration

Standing regime — start → end, per bloc

United States

overheating / late-cycle · held all period

China

disinflationary stall → deflation watch

W15: disinflationary stall → deflation watch

Euro area

disinflationary stall · held all period

Japan

overheating / late-cycle · held all period

Mechanisms fired across the period

United States

M10 ×13 curve_inversion
M6 ×9 growth_slowdown
M5 ×4 growth_acceleration
M2 ×4 inflation_surprise_down
M9 ×1 yield_spike

China

M6 ×4 growth_slowdown

Euro area

M13 ×5 contraction_easing
M9 ×4 yield_spike
M3 ×4 policy_easing
M6 ×3 growth_slowdown

Japan

M2 ×11 inflation_surprise_down
M9 ×8 yield_spike
M4 ×3 policy_tightening
M12 ×3 boj_normalization

Net indicator moves (first refreshed value → last)

United States

core_cpi: 0.27 → 0.20 -0.07 (2024-04-01 → 2024-06-12)
core_pce: 3.01 → 2.60 -0.41 (2024-04-01 → 2024-06-28)
cpi_yoy: 3.36 → 3.30 -0.06 (2024-04-01 → 2024-06-12)
fx: 104.30 → 105.87 +1.57 (2024-04-05 → 2024-06-28)
gdp: 3.60 → 1.40 -2.20 (2024-04-01 → 2024-06-27)
pmi_mfg: 50.30 → 48.70 -1.60 (2024-04-01 → 2024-06-03)
pmi_svc: 51.40 → 53.80 +2.40 (2024-04-03 → 2024-06-05)
policy_rate: 5.50 → 5.50 0.00 (2024-04-07 → 2024-06-30)
slope_2s10s: -0.34 → -0.35 -0.01 (2024-04-05 → 2024-06-28)
unemployment: 3.80 → 4.00 +0.20 (2024-04-05 → 2024-06-07)
yield_10y: 4.39 → 4.36 -0.03 (2024-04-05 → 2024-06-28)
yield_2y: 4.73 → 4.71 -0.02 (2024-04-05 → 2024-06-28)

China

cpi_yoy: 0.70 → 0.30 -0.40 (2024-03-09 → 2024-06-12)
fx: 7.23 → 7.27 +0.03 (2024-04-05 → 2024-06-28)
gdp: 5.20 → 5.30 +0.10 (2024-01-17 → 2024-04-16)
pmi_mfg: 50.40 → 49.50 -0.90 (2024-04-01 → 2024-06-01)
pmi_svc: 53.00 → 50.50 -2.50 (2024-03-31 → 2024-06-30)
policy_rate: 3.45 → 3.45 0.00 (2024-03-20 → 2024-06-20)
slope_2s10s: 0.41 → 0.57 +0.17 (2024-04-07 → 2024-06-28)
unemployment: 5.00 → 5.00 0.00 (2024-04-01 → 2024-06-01)
yield_10y: 2.29 → 2.21 -0.09 (2024-04-07 → 2024-06-28)
yield_2y: 1.89 → 1.63 -0.26 (2024-04-07 → 2024-06-28)

Euro area

cpi_yoy: 2.40 → 2.60 +0.20 (2024-04-03 → 2024-06-18)
fx: 1.08 → 1.07 -0.01 (2024-04-05 → 2024-06-28)
gdp: 0.80 → 0.20 -0.60 (2024-04-03 → 2024-06-18)
pmi_mfg: 46.10 → 45.60 -0.50 (2024-04-02 → 2024-06-21)
pmi_svc: 51.50 → 52.60 +1.10 (2024-04-04 → 2024-06-21)
policy_rate: 4.50 → 4.25 -0.25 (2024-03-07 → 2024-06-06)
unemployment: 6.50 → 6.40 -0.10 (2024-04-03 → 2024-05-30)
yield_10y: 3.07 → 3.17 +0.09 (2024-04-01 → 2024-06-01)

Japan

core_cpi: 2.50 → 1.70 -0.80 (2024-03-22 → 2024-06-21)
cpi_yoy: 2.80 → 2.80 0.00 (2024-03-22 → 2024-06-21)
fx: 151.29 → 160.69 +9.39 (2024-04-05 → 2024-06-28)
policy_rate: 0.10 → 0.10 0.00 (2024-03-19 → 2024-06-14)
unemployment: 2.40 → 2.60 +0.20 (2024-04-01 → 2024-06-28)
yield_10y: 0.87 → 1.05 +0.18 (2024-04-01 → 2024-06-01)

Busiest week: 2024-W16 (8 active mechanisms) · Quietest: 2024-W24 (4 active)

Synthesis

(historical period — no Claude narration run)

Decompose