Macro Intelligence · Quarterly board

2024-Q4

Quarterly aggregate · 13 week regimes · drill into children for finer reads

Quarterly

2024-Q4 — 13 weeks across 3 months

Dashboard from the materialized period object + the de-blended store. Actuals are deterministic; synthesis (below) is narrated for the current period only.

Headline — where each bloc stands

Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder

Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.

Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion

Indicators — pick a metric, compare blocs · recession shading + crosshair

One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.

Per-region breakdown — 2024-Q4 vs 2024-Q3, with trend

Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper

A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value

B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric

Whole-board snapshot — parallel coordinates · parallel coordinates

Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2024-Q4).

Audit trail — detail tables

📊 Data verdicts · 13 week(s) in period · deterministic, no narration

Standing regime — start → end, per bloc

United States

disinflationary stall · held all period

China

disinflationary stall → deflation watch

W41: disinflationary stall → deflation watch

Euro area

disinflationary stall · held all period

Japan

overheating / late-cycle · held all period

Mechanisms fired across the period

United States

M6 ×5 growth_slowdown
M13 ×4 contraction_easing
M9 ×1 yield_spike

China

M5 ×4 growth_acceleration
M3 ×4 policy_easing
M11 ×4 china_credit_impulse

Euro area

M3 ×13 policy_easing
M13 ×2 contraction_easing
M6 ×2 growth_slowdown

Japan

M9 ×4 yield_spike

Net indicator moves (first refreshed value → last)

United States

core_cpi: 0.31 → 0.30 -0.01 (2024-10-01 → 2024-12-11)
core_pce: 2.99 → 2.80 -0.19 (2024-10-01 → 2024-12-20)
cpi_yoy: 2.58 → 2.70 +0.12 (2024-10-01 → 2024-12-11)
fx: 102.52 → 108.00 +5.48 (2024-10-04 → 2024-12-27)
gdp: 1.90 → 3.10 +1.20 (2024-10-01 → 2024-12-19)
pmi_mfg: 47.20 → 48.40 +1.20 (2024-10-01 → 2024-12-02)
pmi_svc: 54.90 → 52.10 -2.80 (2024-10-03 → 2024-12-04)
policy_rate: 5.00 → 4.50 -0.50 (2024-10-06 → 2024-12-29)
slope_2s10s: 0.05 → 0.31 +0.26 (2024-10-04 → 2024-12-27)
unemployment: 4.10 → 4.20 +0.10 (2024-10-04 → 2024-12-06)
yield_10y: 3.98 → 4.62 +0.64 (2024-10-04 → 2024-12-27)
yield_2y: 3.93 → 4.31 +0.38 (2024-10-04 → 2024-12-27)

China

cpi_yoy: 0.60 → 0.20 -0.40 (2024-09-09 → 2024-12-09)
fx: 7.05 → 7.30 +0.25 (2024-10-04 → 2024-12-27)
gdp: 4.70 → 4.60 -0.10 (2024-07-15 → 2024-10-18)
pmi_mfg: 50.10 → 50.10 0.00 (2024-10-01 → 2024-12-01)
pmi_svc: 50.00 → 50.00 0.00 (2024-09-30 → 2024-11-30)
policy_rate: 3.35 → 3.10 -0.25 (2024-09-20 → 2024-12-20)
slope_2s10s: 0.69 → 0.56 -0.13 (2024-09-30 → 2024-12-27)
unemployment: 5.00 → 5.10 +0.10 (2024-10-01 → 2024-12-01)
yield_10y: 2.15 → 1.69 -0.46 (2024-09-30 → 2024-12-27)
yield_2y: 1.46 → 1.13 -0.33 (2024-09-30 → 2024-12-27)

Euro area

cpi_yoy: 1.80 → 2.20 +0.40 (2024-10-01 → 2024-12-18)
fx: 1.10 → 1.04 -0.06 (2024-10-04 → 2024-12-27)
gdp: -0.10 → -0.30 -0.20 (2024-10-01 → 2024-12-18)
pmi_mfg: 45.00 → 45.20 +0.20 (2024-10-01 → 2024-12-16)
pmi_svc: 51.40 → 51.40 0.00 (2024-10-03 → 2024-12-16)
policy_rate: 3.65 → 3.15 -0.50 (2024-09-12 → 2024-12-12)
unemployment: 6.40 → 6.30 -0.10 (2024-10-02 → 2024-12-02)
yield_10y: 2.87 → 2.81 -0.05 (2024-10-01 → 2024-12-01)

Japan

core_cpi: 1.70 → 1.70 0.00 (2024-09-20 → 2024-12-20)
cpi_yoy: 3.00 → 2.90 -0.10 (2024-09-20 → 2024-12-20)
fx: 146.84 → 157.75 +10.91 (2024-10-04 → 2024-12-27)
policy_rate: 0.25 → 0.25 0.00 (2024-09-20 → 2024-12-19)
unemployment: 2.50 → 2.50 0.00 (2024-10-01 → 2024-12-27)
yield_10y: 0.94 → 1.09 +0.15 (2024-10-01 → 2024-12-01)

Busiest week: 2024-W44 (6 active mechanisms) · Quietest: 2024-W41 (2 active)

Synthesis

(historical period — no Claude narration run)

Decompose