Macro Intelligence · Quarterly board

2024-Q1

Quarterly aggregate · 13 week regimes · drill into children for finer reads

Quarterly

2024-Q1 — 13 weeks across 3 months

Dashboard from the materialized period object + the de-blended store. Actuals are deterministic; synthesis (below) is narrated for the current period only.

Headline — where each bloc stands

Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder

Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.

Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion

Indicators — pick a metric, compare blocs · recession shading + crosshair

One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.

Per-region breakdown — 2024-Q1 vs 2023-Q4, with trend

Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper

A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value

B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric

Whole-board snapshot — parallel coordinates · parallel coordinates

Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2024-Q1).

Audit trail — detail tables

📊 Data verdicts · 13 week(s) in period · deterministic, no narration

Standing regime — start → end, per bloc

United States

stagflationary · held all period

China

deflation watch → disinflationary stall

W10: deflation watch → disinflationary stall

Euro area

stagflationary → disinflationary stall

W09: stagflationary → disinflationary stall

Japan

overheating / late-cycle · held all period

Mechanisms fired across the period

United States

M10 ×13 curve_inversion
M13 ×8 contraction_easing
M6 ×5 growth_slowdown
M9 ×1 yield_spike

China

M5 ×5 growth_acceleration

Euro area

M13 ×4 contraction_easing
M9 ×4 yield_spike
M6 ×3 growth_slowdown

Japan

M9 ×4 yield_spike
M2 ×3 inflation_surprise_down
M4 ×2 policy_tightening
M12 ×2 boj_normalization

Net indicator moves (first refreshed value → last)

United States

core_cpi: 0.36 → 0.40 +0.04 (2024-01-01 → 2024-03-12)
core_pce: 3.16 → 2.80 -0.36 (2024-01-01 → 2024-03-29)
cpi_yoy: 3.09 → 3.20 +0.11 (2024-01-01 → 2024-03-12)
fx: 102.41 → 104.55 +2.14 (2024-01-05 → 2024-03-28)
gdp: 0.80 → 3.40 +2.60 (2024-01-01 → 2024-03-28)
pmi_mfg: 47.40 → 47.80 +0.40 (2024-01-03 → 2024-03-01)
pmi_svc: 50.60 → 52.60 +2.00 (2024-01-05 → 2024-03-05)
policy_rate: 5.50 → 5.50 0.00 (2024-01-07 → 2024-03-31)
slope_2s10s: -0.35 → -0.39 -0.04 (2024-01-05 → 2024-03-28)
unemployment: 3.70 → 3.90 +0.20 (2024-01-05 → 2024-03-08)
yield_10y: 4.05 → 4.20 +0.15 (2024-01-05 → 2024-03-28)
yield_2y: 4.40 → 4.59 +0.19 (2024-01-05 → 2024-03-28)

China

cpi_yoy: -0.50 → 0.70 +1.20 (2023-12-09 → 2024-03-09)
fx: 7.11 → 7.23 +0.12 (2024-01-05 → 2024-03-29)
gdp: 4.90 → 5.20 +0.30 (2023-10-18 → 2024-01-17)
pmi_mfg: 49.20 → 50.80 +1.60 (2024-01-01 → 2024-03-01)
pmi_svc: 50.40 → 53.00 +2.60 (2023-12-31 → 2024-03-31)
policy_rate: 3.45 → 3.45 0.00 (2023-12-20 → 2024-03-20)
slope_2s10s: 0.28 → 0.39 +0.11 (2024-01-05 → 2024-03-29)
unemployment: 5.20 → 5.20 0.00 (2024-01-01 → 2024-03-01)
yield_10y: 2.52 → 2.29 -0.23 (2024-01-05 → 2024-03-29)
yield_2y: 2.24 → 1.90 -0.34 (2024-01-05 → 2024-03-29)

Euro area

cpi_yoy: 2.90 → 2.60 -0.30 (2024-01-05 → 2024-03-18)
fx: 1.09 → 1.08 -0.02 (2024-01-05 → 2024-03-29)
gdp: 0.20 → 0.60 +0.40 (2024-01-05 → 2024-03-18)
pmi_mfg: 44.40 → 45.70 +1.30 (2024-01-02 → 2024-03-21)
pmi_svc: 48.80 → 51.10 +2.30 (2024-01-04 → 2024-03-21)
policy_rate: 4.50 → 4.50 0.00 (2023-12-14 → 2024-03-07)
unemployment: 6.50 → 6.40 -0.10 (2023-11-30 → 2024-03-01)
yield_10y: 2.90 → 2.95 +0.05 (2024-01-01 → 2024-03-01)

Japan

core_cpi: 2.70 → 2.50 -0.20 (2023-12-22 → 2024-03-22)
cpi_yoy: 2.80 → 2.80 0.00 (2023-12-22 → 2024-03-22)
fx: 144.76 → 151.44 +6.67 (2024-01-05 → 2024-03-29)
policy_rate: -0.10 → 0.10 +0.20 (2023-12-19 → 2024-03-19)
unemployment: 2.60 → 2.60 0.00 (2023-12-26 → 2024-03-29)
yield_10y: 0.73 → 0.72 -0.01 (2024-01-01 → 2024-03-01)

Busiest week: 2024-W12 (6 active mechanisms) · Quietest: 2024-W01 (3 active)

Synthesis

(historical period — no Claude narration run)

Decompose