Macro Intelligence · Yearly board

2021

Yearly aggregate · 52 week regimes · drill into children for finer reads

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Yearly

2021 — 52 weeks across 4 quarters

Dashboard from the materialized period object + the de-blended store. Actuals are deterministic; synthesis (below) is narrated for the current period only.

Headline — where each bloc stands

Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder

Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.

Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion

Indicators — pick a metric, compare blocs · recession shading + crosshair

One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.

Per-region breakdown — 2021 vs 2020, with trend

Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper

A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value
B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric

Whole-board snapshot — parallel coordinates · parallel coordinates

Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2021).

Audit trail — detail tables
📊 Data verdicts · 52 week(s) in period · deterministic, no narration

Standing regime — start → end, per bloc

United States
expansion, at target → overheating / late-cycle
W13: expansion, at target → overheating / late-cycle · W15: overheating / late-cycle → expansion, at target · W17: expansion, at target → overheating / late-cycle
China
deflation watch → stall-speed, at target
W19: deflation watch → disinflationary stall · W23: disinflationary stall → stall-speed, at target · W27: stall-speed, at target → disinflationary stall · W45: disinflationary stall → stall-speed, at target
Euro area
goldilocks / reflation → overheating / late-cycle
W13: goldilocks / reflation → expansion, at target · W35: expansion, at target → overheating / late-cycle
Japan
deflation watch → disinflationary stall
W51: deflation watch → disinflationary stall

Mechanisms fired across the period

United States
  • M5 ×30 growth_acceleration
  • M1 ×13 inflation_surprise_up
  • M2 ×9 inflation_surprise_down
  • M9 ×1 yield_spike
China
  • M6 ×9 growth_slowdown
  • M5 ×8 growth_acceleration
  • M3 ×1 policy_easing
  • M11 ×1 china_credit_impulse
Euro area
  • M9 ×18 yield_spike
  • M5 ×10 growth_acceleration
Japan
  • M1 ×9 inflation_surprise_up
  • M2 ×9 inflation_surprise_down

Net indicator moves (first refreshed value → last)

United States
  • core_cpi: 0.02 → 0.50 +0.48 (2021-01-01 → 2021-12-10)
  • core_pce: 1.70 → 4.70 +3.00 (2021-01-01 → 2021-12-23)
  • cpi_yoy: 1.37 → 6.80 +5.43 (2021-01-01 → 2021-12-10)
  • fx: 89.94 → 96.02 +6.08 (2020-12-31 → 2021-12-23)
  • gdp: 5.70 → 2.30 -3.40 (2021-01-01 → 2021-12-22)
  • pmi_mfg: 57.50 → 61.10 +3.60 (2020-12-01 → 2021-12-01)
  • pmi_svc: 55.90 → 69.10 +13.20 (2020-12-03 → 2021-12-03)
  • policy_rate: 0.25 → 0.25 0.00 (2021-01-03 → 2021-12-26)
  • slope_2s10s: 0.80 → 0.79 -0.01 (2020-12-31 → 2021-12-23)
  • unemployment: 6.40 → 4.20 -2.20 (2021-01-01 → 2021-12-03)
  • yield_10y: 0.93 → 1.50 +0.57 (2020-12-31 → 2021-12-23)
  • yield_2y: 0.13 → 0.71 +0.58 (2020-12-31 → 2021-12-23)
China
  • cpi_yoy: -0.50 → 2.30 +2.80 (2020-12-09 → 2021-12-09)
  • fx: 6.53 → 6.37 -0.16 (2021-01-01 → 2021-12-24)
  • gdp: 4.90 → 4.90 0.00 (2020-10-19 → 2021-10-18)
  • pmi_mfg: 51.30 → 50.30 -1.00 (2021-01-01 → 2021-12-01)
  • pmi_svc: 55.70 → 52.30 -3.40 (2020-12-31 → 2021-11-30)
  • policy_rate: 3.85 → 3.80 -0.05 (2020-12-21 → 2021-12-20)
  • slope_2s10s: 0.42 → 0.34 -0.08 (2020-12-31 → 2021-12-24)
  • unemployment: 5.40 → 5.10 -0.30 (2021-01-01 → 2021-12-01)
  • yield_10y: 3.14 → 2.82 -0.32 (2020-12-31 → 2021-12-24)
  • yield_2y: 2.72 → 2.48 -0.24 (2020-12-31 → 2021-12-24)
Euro area
  • cpi_yoy: -0.30 → 4.90 +5.20 (2020-12-17 → 2021-12-17)
  • fx: 1.22 → 1.13 -0.09 (2021-01-01 → 2021-12-24)
  • gdp: -0.30 → 0.40 +0.70 (2020-12-17 → 2021-12-17)
  • pmi_mfg: 55.50 → 58.00 +2.50 (2020-12-16 → 2021-12-16)
  • pmi_svc: 47.30 → 53.30 +6.00 (2020-12-16 → 2021-12-16)
  • policy_rate: 0.00 → 0.00 0.00 (2020-12-10 → 2021-12-16)
  • unemployment: 8.40 → 7.30 -1.10 (2020-12-02 → 2021-12-02)
  • yield_10y: -0.06 → 0.28 +0.34 (2021-01-01 → 2021-12-01)
Japan
  • core_cpi: -0.40 → -1.20 -0.80 (2020-12-18 → 2021-12-24)
  • cpi_yoy: -0.90 → 0.60 +1.50 (2020-12-18 → 2021-12-24)
  • fx: 103.23 → 114.46 +11.23 (2021-01-01 → 2021-12-24)
  • policy_rate: -0.10 → -0.10 0.00 (2020-12-18 → 2021-12-17)
  • unemployment: 2.90 → 2.70 -0.20 (2020-12-25 → 2021-11-30)
  • yield_10y: 0.06 → 0.07 +0.01 (2021-01-01 → 2021-12-01)

Busiest week: 2021-W09 (4 active mechanisms) · Quietest: 2021-W32 (0 active)

Synthesis

(historical period — no Claude narration run)

Decompose

2021-Q1
quarterly board
2021-Q2
quarterly board
2021-Q3
quarterly board
2021-Q4
quarterly board