Macro Intelligence · Quarterly board

2021-Q1

Quarterly aggregate · 13 week regimes · drill into children for finer reads

Quarterly

2021-Q1 — 13 weeks across 3 months

Dashboard from the materialized period object + the de-blended store. Actuals are deterministic; synthesis (below) is narrated for the current period only.

Headline — where each bloc stands

Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder

Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.

Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion

Indicators — pick a metric, compare blocs · recession shading + crosshair

One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.

Per-region breakdown — 2021-Q1 vs 2020-Q4, with trend

Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper

A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value

B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric

Whole-board snapshot — parallel coordinates · parallel coordinates

Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2021-Q1).

Audit trail — detail tables

📊 Data verdicts · 13 week(s) in period · deterministic, no narration

Standing regime — start → end, per bloc

United States

expansion, at target · held all period

China

deflation watch · held all period

Euro area

goldilocks / reflation · held all period

Japan

deflation watch · held all period

Mechanisms fired across the period

United States

M5 ×8 growth_acceleration
M1 ×1 inflation_surprise_up
M9 ×1 yield_spike

China

M5 ×4 growth_acceleration

Euro area

M5 ×4 growth_acceleration
M9 ×4 yield_spike

Japan

M1 ×4 inflation_surprise_up

Net indicator moves (first refreshed value → last)

United States

core_cpi: 0.02 → 0.10 +0.08 (2021-01-01 → 2021-03-10)
core_pce: 1.70 → 1.40 -0.30 (2021-01-01 → 2021-03-26)
cpi_yoy: 1.37 → 1.70 +0.33 (2021-01-01 → 2021-03-10)
fx: 89.94 → 92.77 +2.83 (2020-12-31 → 2021-03-26)
gdp: 5.70 → 4.30 -1.40 (2021-01-01 → 2021-03-25)
pmi_mfg: 57.50 → 60.80 +3.30 (2020-12-01 → 2021-03-01)
pmi_svc: 55.90 → 55.30 -0.60 (2020-12-03 → 2021-03-03)
policy_rate: 0.25 → 0.25 0.00 (2021-01-03 → 2021-03-28)
slope_2s10s: 0.80 → 1.53 +0.73 (2020-12-31 → 2021-03-26)
unemployment: 6.40 → 6.20 -0.20 (2021-01-01 → 2021-03-05)
yield_10y: 0.93 → 1.67 +0.74 (2020-12-31 → 2021-03-26)
yield_2y: 0.13 → 0.14 +0.01 (2020-12-31 → 2021-03-26)

China

cpi_yoy: -0.50 → -0.20 +0.30 (2020-12-09 → 2021-03-10)
fx: 6.53 → 6.54 +0.01 (2021-01-01 → 2021-03-26)
gdp: 4.90 → 6.50 +1.60 (2020-10-19 → 2021-01-18)
pmi_mfg: 51.30 → 51.90 +0.60 (2021-01-01 → 2021-03-01)
pmi_svc: 55.70 → 51.40 -4.30 (2020-12-31 → 2021-02-28)
policy_rate: 3.85 → 3.85 0.00 (2020-12-21 → 2021-03-22)
slope_2s10s: 0.42 → 0.40 -0.02 (2020-12-31 → 2021-03-26)
unemployment: 5.40 → 5.30 -0.10 (2021-01-01 → 2021-03-01)
yield_10y: 3.14 → 3.20 +0.06 (2020-12-31 → 2021-03-26)
yield_2y: 2.72 → 2.80 +0.07 (2020-12-31 → 2021-03-26)

Euro area

cpi_yoy: -0.30 → 0.90 +1.20 (2020-12-17 → 2021-03-17)
fx: 1.22 → 1.18 -0.04 (2021-01-01 → 2021-03-26)
gdp: -0.30 → 0.20 +0.50 (2020-12-17 → 2021-03-17)
pmi_mfg: 55.50 → 62.40 +6.90 (2020-12-16 → 2021-03-24)
pmi_svc: 47.30 → 48.80 +1.50 (2020-12-16 → 2021-03-24)
policy_rate: 0.00 → 0.00 0.00 (2020-12-10 → 2021-03-11)
unemployment: 8.40 → 8.10 -0.30 (2020-12-02 → 2021-03-04)
yield_10y: -0.06 → 0.15 +0.21 (2021-01-01 → 2021-03-01)

Japan

core_cpi: -0.40 → 0.10 +0.50 (2020-12-18 → 2021-03-19)
cpi_yoy: -0.90 → -0.50 +0.40 (2020-12-18 → 2021-03-19)
fx: 103.23 → 109.18 +5.95 (2021-01-01 → 2021-03-26)
policy_rate: -0.10 → -0.10 0.00 (2020-12-18 → 2021-03-19)
unemployment: 2.90 → 2.90 0.00 (2020-12-25 → 2021-03-02)
yield_10y: 0.06 → 0.12 +0.07 (2021-01-01 → 2021-03-01)

Busiest week: 2021-W09 (4 active mechanisms) · Quietest: 2020-W53 (1 active)

Synthesis

(historical period — no Claude narration run)

Decompose