Macro Intelligence · Quarterly board

2021-Q2

Quarterly aggregate · 13 week regimes · drill into children for finer reads

Quarterly

2021-Q2 — 13 weeks across 3 months

Dashboard from the materialized period object + the de-blended store. Actuals are deterministic; synthesis (below) is narrated for the current period only.

Headline — where each bloc stands

Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder

Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.

Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion

Indicators — pick a metric, compare blocs · recession shading + crosshair

One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.

Per-region breakdown — 2021-Q2 vs 2021-Q1, with trend

Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper

A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value

B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric

Whole-board snapshot — parallel coordinates · parallel coordinates

Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2021-Q2).

Audit trail — detail tables

📊 Data verdicts · 13 week(s) in period · deterministic, no narration

Standing regime — start → end, per bloc

United States

overheating / late-cycle · held all period

China

deflation watch → stall-speed, at target

W19: deflation watch → disinflationary stall · W23: disinflationary stall → stall-speed, at target

Euro area

expansion, at target · held all period

Japan

deflation watch · held all period

Mechanisms fired across the period

United States

M5 ×9 growth_acceleration
M1 ×7 inflation_surprise_up
M2 ×2 inflation_surprise_down

China

no fires

Euro area

M5 ×5 growth_acceleration
M9 ×5 yield_spike

Japan

M2 ×4 inflation_surprise_down

Net indicator moves (first refreshed value → last)

United States

core_cpi: 0.81 → 0.70 -0.11 (2021-04-01 → 2021-06-10)
core_pce: 3.13 → 3.40 +0.27 (2021-04-01 → 2021-06-25)
cpi_yoy: 4.13 → 5.00 +0.87 (2021-04-01 → 2021-06-10)
fx: 92.93 → 91.81 -1.12 (2021-04-01 → 2021-06-25)
gdp: 7.00 → 6.40 -0.60 (2021-04-01 → 2021-06-24)
pmi_mfg: 64.70 → 61.20 -3.50 (2021-04-01 → 2021-06-01)
pmi_svc: 55.30 → 64.00 +8.70 (2021-03-03 → 2021-06-03)
policy_rate: 0.25 → 0.25 0.00 (2021-04-04 → 2021-06-27)
slope_2s10s: 1.53 → 1.26 -0.27 (2021-04-02 → 2021-06-25)
unemployment: 6.00 → 5.80 -0.20 (2021-04-02 → 2021-06-04)
yield_10y: 1.72 → 1.54 -0.18 (2021-04-02 → 2021-06-25)
yield_2y: 0.19 → 0.28 +0.09 (2021-04-02 → 2021-06-25)

China

cpi_yoy: -0.20 → 1.30 +1.50 (2021-03-10 → 2021-06-09)
fx: 6.56 → 6.47 -0.09 (2021-04-02 → 2021-06-25)
gdp: 6.50 → 18.30 +11.80 (2021-01-18 → 2021-04-16)
pmi_mfg: 51.10 → 50.90 -0.20 (2021-04-01 → 2021-06-01)
pmi_svc: 56.30 → 55.20 -1.10 (2021-03-31 → 2021-05-31)
policy_rate: 3.85 → 3.85 0.00 (2021-03-22 → 2021-06-21)
slope_2s10s: 0.44 → 0.42 -0.02 (2021-04-02 → 2021-06-25)
unemployment: 5.10 → 5.00 -0.10 (2021-04-01 → 2021-06-01)
yield_10y: 3.20 → 3.08 -0.12 (2021-04-02 → 2021-06-25)
yield_2y: 2.77 → 2.67 -0.10 (2021-04-02 → 2021-06-25)

Euro area

cpi_yoy: 1.30 → 2.00 +0.70 (2021-03-31 → 2021-06-17)
fx: 1.18 → 1.19 +0.01 (2021-04-02 → 2021-06-25)
gdp: 0.90 → 0.30 -0.60 (2021-03-31 → 2021-06-17)
pmi_mfg: 62.50 → 63.10 +0.60 (2021-04-01 → 2021-06-23)
pmi_svc: 48.80 → 58.00 +9.20 (2021-03-24 → 2021-06-23)
policy_rate: 0.00 → 0.00 0.00 (2021-03-11 → 2021-06-10)
unemployment: 8.10 → 8.00 -0.10 (2021-03-04 → 2021-06-01)
yield_10y: 0.20 → 0.30 +0.10 (2021-04-01 → 2021-06-01)

Japan

core_cpi: 0.10 → -1.10 -1.20 (2021-03-19 → 2021-06-18)
cpi_yoy: -0.50 → -0.80 -0.30 (2021-03-19 → 2021-06-18)
fx: 110.61 → 110.92 +0.31 (2021-04-02 → 2021-06-25)
policy_rate: -0.10 → -0.10 0.00 (2021-03-19 → 2021-06-18)
unemployment: 2.90 → 2.80 -0.10 (2021-03-30 → 2021-05-28)
yield_10y: 0.09 → 0.05 -0.04 (2021-04-01 → 2021-06-01)

Busiest week: 2021-W17 (4 active mechanisms) · Quietest: 2021-W25 (1 active)

Synthesis

(historical period — no Claude narration run)

Decompose