Macro Intelligence · Quarterly board

2021-Q4

Quarterly aggregate · 13 week regimes · drill into children for finer reads

Quarterly

2021-Q4 — 13 weeks across 3 months

Dashboard from the materialized period object + the de-blended store. Actuals are deterministic; synthesis (below) is narrated for the current period only.

Headline — where each bloc stands

Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder

Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.

Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion

Indicators — pick a metric, compare blocs · recession shading + crosshair

One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.

Per-region breakdown — 2021-Q4 vs 2021-Q3, with trend

Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper

A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value

B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric

Whole-board snapshot — parallel coordinates · parallel coordinates

Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2021-Q4).

Audit trail — detail tables

📊 Data verdicts · 13 week(s) in period · deterministic, no narration

Standing regime — start → end, per bloc

United States

overheating / late-cycle · held all period

China

disinflationary stall → stall-speed, at target

W45: disinflationary stall → stall-speed, at target

Euro area

overheating / late-cycle · held all period

Japan

deflation watch → disinflationary stall

W51: deflation watch → disinflationary stall

Mechanisms fired across the period

United States

M5 ×9 growth_acceleration
M1 ×3 inflation_surprise_up
M2 ×3 inflation_surprise_down

China

M6 ×5 growth_slowdown
M5 ×4 growth_acceleration
M3 ×1 policy_easing
M11 ×1 china_credit_impulse

Euro area

M9 ×5 yield_spike
M5 ×1 growth_acceleration

Japan

M2 ×5 inflation_surprise_down

Net indicator moves (first refreshed value → last)

United States

core_cpi: 0.70 → 0.50 -0.20 (2021-10-01 → 2021-12-10)
core_pce: 4.44 → 4.70 +0.26 (2021-10-01 → 2021-12-23)
cpi_yoy: 6.24 → 6.80 +0.56 (2021-10-01 → 2021-12-10)
fx: 94.04 → 96.02 +1.98 (2021-10-01 → 2021-12-23)
gdp: 7.00 → 2.30 -4.70 (2021-10-01 → 2021-12-22)
pmi_mfg: 61.10 → 61.10 0.00 (2021-10-01 → 2021-12-01)
pmi_svc: 61.70 → 69.10 +7.40 (2021-09-03 → 2021-12-03)
policy_rate: 0.25 → 0.25 0.00 (2021-10-03 → 2021-12-26)
slope_2s10s: 1.21 → 0.79 -0.42 (2021-10-01 → 2021-12-23)
unemployment: 4.50 → 4.20 -0.30 (2021-10-01 → 2021-12-03)
yield_10y: 1.48 → 1.50 +0.02 (2021-10-01 → 2021-12-23)
yield_2y: 0.27 → 0.71 +0.44 (2021-10-01 → 2021-12-23)

China

cpi_yoy: 0.80 → 2.30 +1.50 (2021-09-09 → 2021-12-09)
fx: 6.45 → 6.37 -0.08 (2021-10-01 → 2021-12-24)
gdp: 7.90 → 4.90 -3.00 (2021-07-15 → 2021-10-18)
pmi_mfg: 49.20 → 50.30 +1.10 (2021-10-01 → 2021-12-01)
pmi_svc: 53.20 → 52.30 -0.90 (2021-09-30 → 2021-11-30)
policy_rate: 3.85 → 3.80 -0.05 (2021-09-22 → 2021-12-20)
slope_2s10s: 0.39 → 0.34 -0.05 (2021-09-30 → 2021-12-24)
unemployment: 4.90 → 5.10 +0.20 (2021-10-01 → 2021-12-01)
yield_10y: 2.88 → 2.82 -0.06 (2021-09-30 → 2021-12-24)
yield_2y: 2.49 → 2.48 -0.01 (2021-09-30 → 2021-12-24)

Euro area

cpi_yoy: 3.40 → 4.90 +1.50 (2021-10-01 → 2021-12-17)
fx: 1.16 → 1.13 -0.02 (2021-10-01 → 2021-12-24)
gdp: 0.50 → 0.40 -0.10 (2021-10-01 → 2021-12-17)
pmi_mfg: 58.60 → 58.00 -0.60 (2021-10-01 → 2021-12-16)
pmi_svc: 56.30 → 53.30 -3.00 (2021-09-23 → 2021-12-16)
policy_rate: 0.00 → 0.00 0.00 (2021-09-09 → 2021-12-16)
unemployment: 7.50 → 7.30 -0.20 (2021-09-30 → 2021-12-02)
yield_10y: 0.35 → 0.28 -0.07 (2021-10-01 → 2021-12-01)

Japan

core_cpi: -0.70 → -1.20 -0.50 (2021-09-24 → 2021-12-24)
cpi_yoy: -0.40 → 0.60 +1.00 (2021-09-24 → 2021-12-24)
fx: 111.46 → 114.46 +3.00 (2021-10-01 → 2021-12-24)
policy_rate: -0.10 → -0.10 0.00 (2021-09-22 → 2021-12-17)
unemployment: 2.80 → 2.70 -0.10 (2021-10-01 → 2021-11-30)
yield_10y: 0.10 → 0.07 -0.03 (2021-10-01 → 2021-12-01)

Busiest week: 2021-W39 (4 active mechanisms) · Quietest: 2021-W45 (1 active)

Synthesis

(historical period — no Claude narration run)

Decompose