Macro Intelligence · Quarterly board

2021-Q3

Quarterly aggregate · 13 week regimes · drill into children for finer reads

Quarterly

2021-Q3 — 13 weeks across 3 months

Dashboard from the materialized period object + the de-blended store. Actuals are deterministic; synthesis (below) is narrated for the current period only.

Headline — where each bloc stands

Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder

Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.

Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion

Indicators — pick a metric, compare blocs · recession shading + crosshair

One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.

Per-region breakdown — 2021-Q3 vs 2021-Q2, with trend

Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper

A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value

B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric

Whole-board snapshot — parallel coordinates · parallel coordinates

Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2021-Q3).

Audit trail — detail tables

📊 Data verdicts · 13 week(s) in period · deterministic, no narration

Standing regime — start → end, per bloc

United States

overheating / late-cycle · held all period

China

stall-speed, at target → disinflationary stall

W27: stall-speed, at target → disinflationary stall

Euro area

expansion, at target → overheating / late-cycle

W35: expansion, at target → overheating / late-cycle

Japan

deflation watch · held all period

Mechanisms fired across the period

United States

M2 ×4 inflation_surprise_down
M5 ×4 growth_acceleration
M1 ×2 inflation_surprise_up

China

M6 ×4 growth_slowdown

Euro area

M9 ×4 yield_spike

Japan

M1 ×5 inflation_surprise_up

Net indicator moves (first refreshed value → last)

United States

core_cpi: 0.36 → 0.10 -0.26 (2021-07-01 → 2021-09-14)
core_pce: 3.93 → 4.01 +0.08 (2021-07-01 → 2021-09-01)
cpi_yoy: 5.25 → 5.30 +0.05 (2021-07-01 → 2021-09-14)
fx: 92.23 → 93.33 +1.10 (2021-07-02 → 2021-09-24)
gdp: 3.30 → 6.60 +3.30 (2021-07-01 → 2021-08-26)
pmi_mfg: 60.60 → 59.90 -0.70 (2021-07-01 → 2021-09-01)
pmi_svc: 64.00 → 61.70 -2.30 (2021-06-03 → 2021-09-03)
policy_rate: 0.25 → 0.25 0.00 (2021-07-04 → 2021-09-26)
slope_2s10s: 1.20 → 1.18 -0.02 (2021-07-02 → 2021-09-24)
unemployment: 5.90 → 5.20 -0.70 (2021-07-02 → 2021-09-03)
yield_10y: 1.44 → 1.47 +0.03 (2021-07-02 → 2021-09-24)
yield_2y: 0.24 → 0.29 +0.05 (2021-07-02 → 2021-09-24)

China

cpi_yoy: 1.30 → 0.80 -0.50 (2021-06-09 → 2021-09-09)
fx: 6.47 → 6.46 -0.01 (2021-07-02 → 2021-09-24)
gdp: 18.30 → 7.90 -10.40 (2021-04-16 → 2021-07-15)
pmi_mfg: 50.40 → 49.60 -0.80 (2021-07-01 → 2021-09-01)
pmi_svc: 53.50 → 47.50 -6.00 (2021-06-30 → 2021-08-31)
policy_rate: 3.85 → 3.85 0.00 (2021-06-21 → 2021-09-22)
slope_2s10s: 0.43 → 0.37 -0.06 (2021-07-02 → 2021-09-26)
unemployment: 5.10 → 4.90 -0.20 (2021-07-01 → 2021-09-01)
yield_10y: 3.08 → 2.88 -0.20 (2021-07-02 → 2021-09-26)
yield_2y: 2.65 → 2.51 -0.14 (2021-07-02 → 2021-09-26)

Euro area

cpi_yoy: 1.90 → 3.00 +1.10 (2021-06-30 → 2021-09-17)
fx: 1.18 → 1.17 -0.01 (2021-07-02 → 2021-09-24)
gdp: 0.30 → 0.40 +0.10 (2021-06-30 → 2021-09-17)
pmi_mfg: 63.40 → 58.70 -4.70 (2021-07-01 → 2021-09-23)
pmi_svc: 58.00 → 56.30 -1.70 (2021-06-23 → 2021-09-23)
policy_rate: 0.00 → 0.00 0.00 (2021-06-10 → 2021-09-09)
unemployment: 7.90 → 7.60 -0.30 (2021-07-01 → 2021-09-01)
yield_10y: 0.16 → 0.20 +0.03 (2021-07-01 → 2021-09-01)

Japan

core_cpi: -1.10 → -0.70 +0.40 (2021-06-18 → 2021-09-24)
cpi_yoy: -0.80 → -0.40 +0.40 (2021-06-18 → 2021-09-24)
fx: 111.57 → 110.33 -1.25 (2021-07-02 → 2021-09-24)
policy_rate: -0.10 → -0.10 0.00 (2021-06-18 → 2021-09-22)
unemployment: 3.00 → 2.80 -0.20 (2021-06-29 → 2021-08-31)
yield_10y: 0.01 → 0.07 +0.05 (2021-07-01 → 2021-09-01)

Busiest week: 2021-W35 (4 active mechanisms) · Quietest: 2021-W32 (0 active)

Synthesis

(historical period — no Claude narration run)

Decompose