Macro Intelligence · Monthly board

2021-01

Month-to-date · weeklies accrete · the monthly synthesis locks at close

← 2020-12daily glanceweekly archive →2021-02 →
PROVISIONAL · 5 of 5 weeks in

2021-01 — month-to-date

(thesis pending synthesis)

what moved this month → daily glance

Audit trail — detail tables
📊 Data verdicts · 5 week(s) in period · deterministic, no narration

Standing regime — start → end, per bloc

United States
expansion, at target · held all period
China
deflation watch · held all period
Euro area
goldilocks / reflation · held all period
Japan
deflation watch · held all period

Mechanisms fired across the period

United States
  • M5 ×4 growth_acceleration
China
no fires
Euro area
  • M5 ×1 growth_acceleration
Japan
no fires

Net indicator moves (first refreshed value → last)

United States
  • core_cpi: 0.02 → 0.10 +0.08 (2021-01-01 → 2021-01-13)
  • core_pce: 1.70 → 1.50 -0.20 (2021-01-01 → 2021-01-29)
  • cpi_yoy: 1.37 → 1.40 +0.03 (2021-01-01 → 2021-01-13)
  • fx: 89.94 → 90.58 +0.64 (2020-12-31 → 2021-01-29)
  • gdp: 5.70 → 4.00 -1.70 (2021-01-01 → 2021-01-28)
  • pmi_mfg: 57.50 → 60.70 +3.20 (2020-12-01 → 2021-01-05)
  • pmi_svc: 55.90 → 57.20 +1.30 (2020-12-03 → 2021-01-07)
  • policy_rate: 0.25 → 0.25 0.00 (2021-01-03 → 2021-01-31)
  • slope_2s10s: 0.80 → 1.00 +0.20 (2020-12-31 → 2021-01-29)
  • unemployment: 6.40 → 6.70 +0.30 (2021-01-01 → 2021-01-08)
  • yield_10y: 0.93 → 1.11 +0.18 (2020-12-31 → 2021-01-29)
  • yield_2y: 0.13 → 0.11 -0.02 (2020-12-31 → 2021-01-29)
China
  • cpi_yoy: -0.50 → 0.20 +0.70 (2020-12-09 → 2021-01-11)
  • fx: 6.53 → 6.45 -0.08 (2021-01-01 → 2021-01-29)
  • gdp: 4.90 → 6.50 +1.60 (2020-10-19 → 2021-01-18)
  • pmi_svc: 55.70 → 52.40 -3.30 (2020-12-31 → 2021-01-31)
  • policy_rate: 3.85 → 3.85 0.00 (2020-12-21 → 2021-01-20)
  • slope_2s10s: 0.42 → 0.36 -0.06 (2020-12-31 → 2021-01-29)
  • yield_10y: 3.14 → 3.18 +0.04 (2020-12-31 → 2021-01-29)
  • yield_2y: 2.72 → 2.82 +0.10 (2020-12-31 → 2021-01-29)
Euro area
  • cpi_yoy: -0.30 → -0.30 0.00 (2020-12-17 → 2021-01-20)
  • fx: 1.22 → 1.21 -0.01 (2021-01-01 → 2021-01-29)
  • gdp: -0.30 → 0.30 +0.60 (2020-12-17 → 2021-01-20)
  • pmi_mfg: 55.50 → 54.70 -0.80 (2020-12-16 → 2021-01-22)
  • pmi_svc: 47.30 → 45.00 -2.30 (2020-12-16 → 2021-01-22)
  • policy_rate: 0.00 → 0.00 0.00 (2020-12-10 → 2021-01-21)
  • unemployment: 8.40 → 8.30 -0.10 (2020-12-02 → 2021-01-08)
Japan
  • core_cpi: -0.40 → -0.50 -0.10 (2020-12-18 → 2021-01-22)
  • cpi_yoy: -0.90 → -1.20 -0.30 (2020-12-18 → 2021-01-22)
  • fx: 103.23 → 104.29 +1.06 (2021-01-01 → 2021-01-29)
  • policy_rate: -0.10 → -0.10 0.00 (2020-12-18 → 2021-01-21)
  • unemployment: 2.90 → 2.90 0.00 (2020-12-25 → 2021-01-29)

Busiest week: 2020-W53 (1 active mechanism) · Quietest: 2020-W53 (1 active)

Headline — where each bloc stands

Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder

Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.

Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion

Indicators — pick a metric, compare blocs · recession shading + crosshair

One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.

Per-region breakdown — 2021-01 vs 2020-12, with trend

Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper

A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value
B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric

Whole-board snapshot — parallel coordinates · parallel coordinates

Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2021-01).

The month's arc

(arc pending)

Month-ahead scenarios

(scenarios pending)

What to watch

(pending)

2020-W53

● 1 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M5_growth_acceleration

United States
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
○ no change
China
deflation watch
stall · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change
Euro area
goldilocks / reflation
expansion · deflation risk · on hold
Improving growth with inflation at/below target — the benign mix. Cyclicals, small-caps and risk assets broadly tend to lead; long bonds lag as growth firms.
● 1 active
Japan
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change

2021-W01

● 1 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M5_growth_acceleration

United States
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
● 1 active
China
deflation watch
stall · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
goldilocks / reflation
expansion · deflation risk · on hold
Improving growth with inflation at/below target — the benign mix. Cyclicals, small-caps and risk assets broadly tend to lead; long bonds lag as growth firms.
○ no change
Japan ⚠ stale
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change

2021-W02

● 1 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M5_growth_acceleration

United States
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
● 1 active
China
deflation watch
stall · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
goldilocks / reflation
expansion · deflation risk · on hold
Improving growth with inflation at/below target — the benign mix. Cyclicals, small-caps and risk assets broadly tend to lead; long bonds lag as growth firms.
○ no change
Japan ⚠ stale
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change

2021-W03

● 1 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M5_growth_acceleration

United States
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
● 1 active
China
deflation watch
stall · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
goldilocks / reflation
expansion · deflation risk · on hold
Improving growth with inflation at/below target — the benign mix. Cyclicals, small-caps and risk assets broadly tend to lead; long bonds lag as growth firms.
○ no change
Japan ⚠ stale
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change

2021-W04

● 1 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M5_growth_acceleration

United States
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
● 1 active
China
deflation watch
stall · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
goldilocks / reflation
expansion · deflation risk · on hold
Improving growth with inflation at/below target — the benign mix. Cyclicals, small-caps and risk assets broadly tend to lead; long bonds lag as growth firms.
○ no change
Japan ⚠ stale
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change