Macro Intelligence · Monthly board

2020-12

Month-to-date · weeklies accrete · the monthly synthesis locks at close

← 2020-11daily glanceweekly archive →2021-01 →
PROVISIONAL · 4 of 4 weeks in

2020-12 — month-to-date

(thesis pending synthesis)

what moved this month → daily glance

Audit trail — detail tables
📊 Data verdicts · 4 week(s) in period · deterministic, no narration

Standing regime — start → end, per bloc

United States
expansion, at target → goldilocks / reflation
W50: expansion, at target → goldilocks / reflation
China
disinflationary stall → deflation watch
W50: disinflationary stall → deflation watch
Euro area
goldilocks / reflation · held all period
Japan
deflation watch · held all period

Mechanisms fired across the period

United States
no fires
China
no fires
Euro area
  • M5 ×2 growth_acceleration
Japan
no fires

Net indicator moves (first refreshed value → last)

United States
  • core_cpi: 0.13 → 0.20 +0.07 (2020-12-01 → 2020-12-10)
  • core_pce: 1.51 → 1.40 -0.11 (2020-12-01 → 2020-12-23)
  • cpi_yoy: 1.32 → 1.20 -0.12 (2020-12-01 → 2020-12-10)
  • fx: 90.70 → 90.33 -0.37 (2020-12-04 → 2020-12-24)
  • gdp: 33.10 → 33.40 +0.30 (2020-11-25 → 2020-12-22)
  • policy_rate: 0.25 → 0.25 0.00 (2020-12-06 → 2020-12-27)
  • slope_2s10s: 0.81 → 0.81 0.00 (2020-12-04 → 2020-12-24)
  • yield_10y: 0.97 → 0.94 -0.03 (2020-12-04 → 2020-12-24)
  • yield_2y: 0.16 → 0.13 -0.03 (2020-12-04 → 2020-12-24)
China
  • cpi_yoy: 0.50 → -0.50 -1.00 (2020-11-10 → 2020-12-09)
  • fx: 6.54 → 6.53 -0.01 (2020-12-04 → 2020-12-25)
  • policy_rate: 3.85 → 3.85 0.00 (2020-11-20 → 2020-12-21)
  • slope_2s10s: 0.25 → 0.42 +0.17 (2020-12-04 → 2020-12-25)
  • yield_10y: 3.27 → 3.19 -0.08 (2020-12-04 → 2020-12-25)
  • yield_2y: 3.01 → 2.77 -0.24 (2020-12-04 → 2020-12-25)
Euro area
  • cpi_yoy: -0.30 → -0.30 0.00 (2020-12-01 → 2020-12-17)
  • fx: 1.21 → 1.22 +0.00 (2020-12-04 → 2020-12-25)
  • gdp: -0.30 → -0.30 0.00 (2020-12-01 → 2020-12-17)
  • pmi_mfg: 53.80 → 55.50 +1.70 (2020-12-01 → 2020-12-16)
  • pmi_svc: 41.70 → 47.30 +5.60 (2020-12-03 → 2020-12-16)
  • policy_rate: 0.00 → 0.00 0.00 (2020-10-29 → 2020-12-10)
Japan
  • core_cpi: -0.40 → -0.40 0.00 (2020-11-20 → 2020-12-18)
  • cpi_yoy: -0.40 → -0.90 -0.50 (2020-11-20 → 2020-12-18)
  • fx: 103.82 → 103.65 -0.17 (2020-12-04 → 2020-12-25)
  • policy_rate: -0.10 → -0.10 0.00 (2020-10-29 → 2020-12-18)
  • unemployment: 3.10 → 2.90 -0.20 (2020-12-01 → 2020-12-25)

Busiest week: 2020-W51 (1 active mechanism) · Quietest: 2020-W49 (0 active)

Headline — where each bloc stands

Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder

Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.

Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion

Indicators — pick a metric, compare blocs · recession shading + crosshair

One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.

Per-region breakdown — 2020-12 vs 2020-11, with trend

Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper

A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value
B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric

Whole-board snapshot — parallel coordinates · parallel coordinates

Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2020-12).

The month's arc

(arc pending)

Month-ahead scenarios

(scenarios pending)

What to watch

(pending)

2020-W49

○ quiet weekOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: no mechanism fired — quiet week

United States
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
○ no change
China
disinflationary stall
stall · below target · on hold
Sub-trend growth with low, easing inflation. Duration and quality tend to lead; cyclicals lag until growth re-accelerates. Policy easing is the usual circuit-breaker.
○ no change
Euro area
goldilocks / reflation
expansion · deflation risk · on hold
Improving growth with inflation at/below target — the benign mix. Cyclicals, small-caps and risk assets broadly tend to lead; long bonds lag as growth firms.
○ no change
Japan
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change

2020-W50

○ quiet weekOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: no mechanism fired — quiet week

United States
goldilocks / reflation
expansion · below target · on hold
Improving growth with inflation at/below target — the benign mix. Cyclicals, small-caps and risk assets broadly tend to lead; long bonds lag as growth firms.
○ no change
China
deflation watch
stall · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
goldilocks / reflation
expansion · deflation risk · on hold
Improving growth with inflation at/below target — the benign mix. Cyclicals, small-caps and risk assets broadly tend to lead; long bonds lag as growth firms.
○ no change
Japan ⚠ stale
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change

2020-W51

● 1 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M5_growth_acceleration

United States
goldilocks / reflation
expansion · below target · on hold
Improving growth with inflation at/below target — the benign mix. Cyclicals, small-caps and risk assets broadly tend to lead; long bonds lag as growth firms.
○ no change
China
deflation watch
stall · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
goldilocks / reflation
expansion · deflation risk · on hold
Improving growth with inflation at/below target — the benign mix. Cyclicals, small-caps and risk assets broadly tend to lead; long bonds lag as growth firms.
● 1 active
Japan ⚠ stale
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change

2020-W52

● 1 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M5_growth_acceleration

United States
goldilocks / reflation
expansion · below target · on hold
Improving growth with inflation at/below target — the benign mix. Cyclicals, small-caps and risk assets broadly tend to lead; long bonds lag as growth firms.
○ no change
China
deflation watch
stall · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
goldilocks / reflation
expansion · deflation risk · on hold
Improving growth with inflation at/below target — the benign mix. Cyclicals, small-caps and risk assets broadly tend to lead; long bonds lag as growth firms.
● 1 active
Japan ⚠ stale
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change