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Macro Regime — 2020-W53

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Standing macro backdropBORROWED

Borrowed from its month (2021-01); the weekly reads the standing object, it does not recompute the aggregate.

United States: expansion, at target
China: deflation watch
Euro area: goldilocks / reflation
Japan: deflation watch

month aggregated actuals

United States

Indicator	Basis	2021-01	2020-12	Change
Core CPI	% MoM	0.02 2021-01-01	0.13 2020-12-01	▼ -0.11
Core PCE	% YoY	1.7 2021-01-01	1.51 2020-12-01	▲ 0.19
CPI (YoY)	% YoY	1.37 2021-01-01	1.32 2020-12-01	→ 0.05
FX vs USD	px	90.58 2021-01-29	89.94 2020-12-31	▲ 0.64
GDP	% QoQ ann.	5.7 2021-01-01	—	—
PMI (mfg)	index	60.7 2021-01-05	57.5 2020-12-01	▲ 3.2
PMI (svc)	index	57.2 2021-01-07	55.9 2020-12-03	▲ 1.3
Policy rate	%	0.25 2021-01-31	0.25 2020-12-31	→ 0
2s10s slope	pp	1 2021-01-29	0.8 2020-12-31	▲ 0.2
Unemployment	%	6.4 2021-01-01	6.7 2020-12-01	▼ -0.3
10Y yield	%	1.11 2021-01-29	0.93 2020-12-31	▲ 0.18
2Y yield	%	0.11 2021-01-29	0.13 2020-12-31	→ -0.02

China

Indicator	Basis	2021-01	2020-12	Change
CPI (YoY)	% YoY	0.2 2021-01-11	-0.5 2020-12-09	▲ 0.7
FX vs USD	px	6.45 2021-01-29	6.52 2020-12-31	→ -0.07
GDP	% YoY	6.5 2021-01-18	—	—
PMI (mfg)	index	51.3 2021-01-01	51.9 2020-12-01	▼ -0.6
PMI (svc)	index	52.4 2021-01-31	55.7 2020-12-31	▼ -3.3
Policy rate	% (1Y LPR)	3.85 2021-01-20	3.85 2020-12-21	→ 0
2s10s slope	pp	0.36 2021-01-29	0.42 2020-12-31	▼ -0.06
Unemployment	%	5.4 2021-01-01	5.2 2020-12-01	▲ 0.2
10Y yield	%	3.18 2021-01-29	3.14 2020-12-31	→ 0.04
2Y yield	%	2.82 2021-01-29	2.72 2020-12-31	▲ 0.1

Euro area

Indicator	Basis	2021-01	2020-12	Change
CPI (YoY)	% YoY	-0.3 2021-01-20	-0.3 2020-12-17	→ 0
FX vs USD	px	1.21 2021-01-29	1.23 2020-12-31	→ -0.02
GDP	% YoY	0.3 2021-01-20	-0.3 2020-12-17	▲ 0.6
PMI (mfg)	index	54.7 2021-01-22	55.5 2020-12-16	▼ -0.8
PMI (svc)	index	45 2021-01-22	47.3 2020-12-16	▼ -2.3
Policy rate	%	0 2021-01-21	0 2020-12-10	→ 0
Unemployment	%	8.3 2021-01-08	8.4 2020-12-02	→ -0.1
10Y yield	%	-0.06 2021-01-01	-0.09 2020-12-01	→ 0.03

Japan

Indicator	Basis	2021-01	2020-12	Change
Core CPI	% YoY	-0.5 2021-01-22	-0.4 2020-12-18	→ -0.1
CPI (YoY)	% YoY	-1.2 2021-01-22	-0.9 2020-12-18	▼ -0.3
FX vs USD	px	104.29 2021-01-29	103.12 2020-12-31	▲ 1.17
GDP	% YoY	-1.64 2021-01-01	—	—
PMI (mfg)		not recorded
Policy rate	%	-0.1 2021-01-21	-0.1 2020-12-18	→ 0
Unemployment	%	2.9 2021-01-29	2.9 2020-12-25	→ 0
10Y yield	%	0.06 2021-01-01	0.02 2020-12-01	→ 0.04

ThesisL0

(historical week — no Claude narration run)

Standing pictureL1

United States

expansion, at target

expansion · at target · on hold

Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.

○ no change

China

deflation watch

stall · deflation risk · on hold

Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.

○ no change

Euro area

goldilocks / reflation

expansion · deflation risk · on hold

Improving growth with inflation at/below target — the benign mix. Cyclicals, small-caps and risk assets broadly tend to lead; long bonds lag as growth firms.

● 1 active

Japan

deflation watch

unknown · deflation risk · on hold

○ no change

Mechanisms & channelsL2

United States

No active mechanism this week — the standing read above carries the bloc.

What would change the read

Inflation surprise (upside) Core inflation is steady, so the upside-surprise channel is quiet. It would fire on a core reading ≥0.2pp above the prior — watch it because that is what forces a central bank to stay restrictive and pressures the longest-duration assets first.
Inflation surprise (downside / disinflation) Core inflation isn't cooling fast enough to trigger the disinflation channel. A fall of ≥0.2pp would fire it — worth watching because it is the cleanest tailwind for long-duration growth and government bonds.
Monetary easing (rate cut) The policy rate is on hold, so the easing channel is dormant. A cut would fire it — it matters because the first cut of a cycle typically broadens a rally and pressures the currency.

China

No active mechanism this week — the standing read above carries the bloc.

What would change the read

Monetary easing (rate cut) The policy rate is on hold, so the easing channel is dormant. A cut would fire it — it matters because the first cut of a cycle typically broadens a rally and pressures the currency.
Monetary tightening (rate hike) The policy rate is steady, so the tightening channel is dormant. A hike would fire it — watch it because it hits long-duration growth, long bonds, and gold first.
Growth acceleration (expansionary PMI) Manufacturing isn't both expanding and accelerating, so the growth-acceleration channel is dormant. A rising PMI back above 50 would fire it — it matters because it's the signal to rotate from defensives toward cyclicals.

Euro area

M5Growth acceleration (expansionary PMI)

Trigger: pmi_mfg: 53.8 → 55.5 (+1.7)

Manufacturing PMIPMI — Purchasing Managers' Index. Above 50 = the sector is expanding vs last month; below 50 = contracting. A timely read on activity. is above 50 and rising.
Why: A reading above 50 means more firms report expanding activity than contracting; rising means the breadth of expansion is widening — a timely, forward-looking growth signal.
Earnings expectations broaden toward economically-sensitive sectors.
Why: Stronger activity feeds revenue and pricing power first in the parts of the market geared to the physical economy.
Cyclicalscyclicals — Sectors whose earnings rise and fall with the economic cycle — industrials, materials, energy, consumer discretionary., small-caps, EM and commodities lead; defensivesdefensives — Sectors whose demand is steady through the cycle — consumer staples, utilities, healthcare. They outperform when growth slows. lag.
Why: Capital rotates toward the cycle — industrials, materials, energy, smaller and more leveraged firms, and the commodities their activity consumes — while steady-demand defensives become relatively less attractive.

Helps
cyclicals (industrials, materials, energy)small-capsEM equitycommodities

Hurts
defensive sectors (staples, utilities)long government bonds

Caveat: If acceleration also stokes inflation fears, the bond-yield response can offset the equity benefit (good growth becomes 'too good'), especially late-cycle.

House-view hook — empty (textbook default; Stephen's view bakes in here).

What would change the read

Monetary easing (rate cut) The policy rate is on hold, so the easing channel is dormant. A cut would fire it — it matters because the first cut of a cycle typically broadens a rally and pressures the currency.
Monetary tightening (rate hike) The policy rate is steady, so the tightening channel is dormant. A hike would fire it — watch it because it hits long-duration growth, long bonds, and gold first.
Growth slowdown (deepening contraction) Manufacturing is not both below 50 and falling, so the deepening-contraction channel is dormant. It fires when a sub-50 PMI turns lower — that is the trigger for the defensive rotation and a bid for duration (a sub-50 PMI that is *rising* is the trough channel, M13, not this one).

Japan

No active mechanism this week — the standing read above carries the bloc.

What would change the read

Inflation surprise (upside) Core inflation is steady, so the upside-surprise channel is quiet. It would fire on a core reading ≥0.2pp above the prior — watch it because that is what forces a central bank to stay restrictive and pressures the longest-duration assets first.
Inflation surprise (downside / disinflation) Core inflation isn't cooling fast enough to trigger the disinflation channel. A fall of ≥0.2pp would fire it — worth watching because it is the cleanest tailwind for long-duration growth and government bonds.
Monetary easing (rate cut) The policy rate is on hold, so the easing channel is dormant. A cut would fire it — it matters because the first cut of a cycle typically broadens a rally and pressures the currency.

The dataL3

United States

Indicator	Current	Prior	Δ	As of
CPI (YoY)	1.37	1.20	+0.17 ▲	2021-01-01
Core CPI	0.02	0.20	-0.18 ▼	2021-01-01
Core PCE	1.70	1.40	+0.30 ▲	2021-01-01
Policy rate	0.25	0.25	+0.00 ▬	2021-01-03
GDP	5.70	33.40	-27.70 ▼	2021-01-01
PMI (mfg)	57.50	59.30	-1.80 ▼	2020-12-01
PMI (svc)	55.90	56.60	-0.70 ▼	2020-12-03
Unemployment	6.40	6.70	-0.30 ▼	2021-01-01
10Y yield	0.93	0.93	+0.00 ▬	2020-12-31
2Y yield	0.13	0.12	+0.01 ▬	2020-12-31
2s10s slope	0.80	0.81	-0.01 ▬	2020-12-31
FX vs USD	89.94	89.63	+0.31 ▬	2020-12-31

China

Indicator	Current	Prior	Δ	As of
CPI (YoY)	-0.50	0.50	-1.00 ▼	2020-12-09
Policy rate	3.85	3.85	+0.00 ▬	2020-12-21
GDP	4.90	3.20	+1.70 ▲	2020-10-19
PMI (mfg)	51.30	51.90	-0.60 ▼	2021-01-01
PMI (svc)	55.70	56.40	-0.70 ▼	2020-12-31
Unemployment	5.40	5.20	+0.20 ▲	2021-01-01
10Y yield	3.14	3.12	+0.02 ▬	2020-12-31
2Y yield	2.72	2.70	+0.02 ▬	2020-12-31
2s10s slope	0.42	0.42	-0.00 ▬	2020-12-31
FX vs USD	6.53	6.52	+0.01 ▬	2021-01-01

Euro area

Indicator	Current	Prior	Δ	As of
CPI (YoY)	-0.30	-0.30	+0.00 ▬	2020-12-17
Policy rate	0.00	0.00	+0.00 ▬	2020-12-10
GDP	-0.30	-0.30	+0.00 ▬	2020-12-17
PMI (mfg)	55.50	53.80	+1.70 ▲	2020-12-16
PMI (svc)	47.30	41.70	+5.60 ▲	2020-12-16
Unemployment	8.40	8.30	+0.10 ▬	2020-12-02
10Y yield	-0.06	-0.09	+0.03 ▬	2021-01-01
FX vs USD	1.22	1.23	-0.01 ▬	2021-01-01

Japan

Indicator	Current	Prior	Δ	As of
CPI (YoY)	-0.90	-0.40	-0.50 ▼	2020-12-18
Core CPI	-0.40	-0.40	+0.00 ▬	2020-12-18
Policy rate	-0.10	-0.10	+0.00 ▬	2020-12-18
GDP	n/a
PMI (mfg)	n/a
Unemployment	2.90	3.10	-0.20 ▼	2020-12-25
10Y yield	0.06	0.02	+0.04 ▬	2021-01-01
FX vs USD	103.23	103.12	+0.10 ▬	2021-01-01

Concept libraryL3

Terms marked ✓ are linked inline above — click any dotted term in the text to expand it in place.

2s10s: The gap between the 10-year and 2-year government bond yields. Positive = normal upward-sloping curve; negative ('inverted') = a classic late-cycle/recession warning.
PMI ✓: Purchasing Managers' Index. Above 50 = the sector is expanding vs last month; below 50 = contracting. A timely read on activity.
carry trade: Borrowing in a low-rate currency (long the yen's case) to buy higher-yielding assets elsewhere. It unwinds violently when the funding rate rises or the funding currency strengthens.
credit impulse: The change in the flow of new credit into an economy. A rising impulse front-runs stronger demand for commodities and cyclical goods, with a lag.
cyclicals ✓: Sectors whose earnings rise and fall with the economic cycle — industrials, materials, energy, consumer discretionary.
defensives ✓: Sectors whose demand is steady through the cycle — consumer staples, utilities, healthcare. They outperform when growth slows.
discount rate: The rate used to convert a future cash flow into today's value. A higher discount rate makes far-off cash flows worth less now.
disinflation: Inflation that is still positive but falling (prices rising more slowly) — distinct from deflation, where prices actually fall.
duration: How sensitive an asset's price is to interest rates. 'Long-duration' assets (long bonds, fast-growing stocks whose profits are years away) move most when rates change.
net interest margin: The spread a bank earns between what it charges on loans and pays on deposits. Higher short rates / steeper curves tend to widen it.
nominal yield: The headline interest rate on a bond, before subtracting inflation.
policy rate: The interest rate a central bank sets directly (e.g. the Fed funds rate, the ECB deposit rate, China's LPR). It anchors all other rates.
rate path: The market's expectation of where the policy rate goes over the next year or two — not just today's level, but the whole expected trajectory.
real yield: The yield after subtracting expected inflation — what a lender actually earns in purchasing power. Real yield ≈ nominal yield − expected inflation.
term premium: The extra yield investors demand to hold a long bond instead of rolling short ones — compensation for tying money up and for issuance/inflation risk.