Macro Intelligence · Monthly board

2021-02

Month-to-date · weeklies accrete · the monthly synthesis locks at close

← 2021-01daily glanceweekly archive →2021-03 →
PROVISIONAL · 4 of 4 weeks in

2021-02 — month-to-date

(thesis pending synthesis)

what moved this month → daily glance

Audit trail — detail tables
📊 Data verdicts · 4 week(s) in period · deterministic, no narration

Standing regime — start → end, per bloc

United States
expansion, at target · held all period
China
deflation watch · held all period
Euro area
goldilocks / reflation · held all period
Japan
deflation watch · held all period

Mechanisms fired across the period

United States
no fires
China
no fires
Euro area
  • M9 ×4 yield_spike
  • M5 ×2 growth_acceleration
Japan
  • M1 ×2 inflation_surprise_up

Net indicator moves (first refreshed value → last)

United States
  • core_cpi: 0.15 → 0.00 -0.15 (2021-02-01 → 2021-02-10)
  • core_pce: 1.71 → 1.50 -0.21 (2021-02-01 → 2021-02-26)
  • cpi_yoy: 1.67 → 1.40 -0.27 (2021-02-01 → 2021-02-10)
  • fx: 91.04 → 90.93 -0.11 (2021-02-05 → 2021-02-26)
  • gdp: 4.00 → 4.10 +0.10 (2021-01-28 → 2021-02-25)
  • policy_rate: 0.25 → 0.25 0.00 (2021-02-07 → 2021-02-28)
  • slope_2s10s: 1.10 → 1.30 +0.20 (2021-02-05 → 2021-02-26)
  • yield_10y: 1.19 → 1.44 +0.25 (2021-02-05 → 2021-02-26)
  • yield_2y: 0.09 → 0.14 +0.05 (2021-02-05 → 2021-02-26)
China
  • cpi_yoy: 0.20 → -0.30 -0.50 (2021-01-11 → 2021-02-10)
  • fx: 6.47 → 6.45 -0.02 (2021-02-05 → 2021-02-26)
  • pmi_svc: 52.40 → 51.40 -1.00 (2021-01-31 → 2021-02-28)
  • policy_rate: 3.85 → 3.85 0.00 (2021-01-20 → 2021-02-20)
  • slope_2s10s: 0.40 → 0.49 +0.10 (2021-02-07 → 2021-02-26)
  • yield_10y: 3.22 → 3.28 +0.06 (2021-02-07 → 2021-02-26)
  • yield_2y: 2.82 → 2.79 -0.03 (2021-02-07 → 2021-02-26)
Euro area
  • cpi_yoy: 0.90 → 0.90 0.00 (2021-02-03 → 2021-02-23)
  • fx: 1.20 → 1.22 +0.02 (2021-02-05 → 2021-02-26)
  • gdp: 0.30 → 0.20 -0.10 (2021-01-20 → 2021-02-23)
  • pmi_mfg: 54.80 → 57.70 +2.90 (2021-02-01 → 2021-02-19)
  • pmi_svc: 45.40 → 44.70 -0.70 (2021-02-03 → 2021-02-19)
Japan
  • core_cpi: -0.50 → 0.10 +0.60 (2021-01-22 → 2021-02-19)
  • cpi_yoy: -1.20 → -0.70 +0.50 (2021-01-22 → 2021-02-19)
  • fx: 105.57 → 106.38 +0.81 (2021-02-05 → 2021-02-26)

Busiest week: 2021-W07 (3 active mechanisms) · Quietest: 2021-W05 (1 active)

Headline — where each bloc stands

Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder

Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.

Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion

Indicators — pick a metric, compare blocs · recession shading + crosshair

One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.

Per-region breakdown — 2021-02 vs 2021-01, with trend

Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper

A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value
B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric

Whole-board snapshot — parallel coordinates · parallel coordinates

Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2021-02).

The month's arc

(arc pending)

Month-ahead scenarios

(scenarios pending)

What to watch

(pending)

2021-W05

● 1 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M9_yield_spike

United States
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
○ no change
China
deflation watch
stall · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change
Euro area
goldilocks / reflation
expansion · below target · on hold
Improving growth with inflation at/below target — the benign mix. Cyclicals, small-caps and risk assets broadly tend to lead; long bonds lag as growth firms.
● 1 active
Japan
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change

2021-W06

● 1 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M9_yield_spike

United States
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
○ no change
China
deflation watch
stall · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
goldilocks / reflation
expansion · below target · on hold
Improving growth with inflation at/below target — the benign mix. Cyclicals, small-caps and risk assets broadly tend to lead; long bonds lag as growth firms.
● 1 active
Japan ⚠ stale
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change

2021-W07

● 3 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M1_inflation_surprise_up, M5_growth_acceleration, M9_yield_spike

United States
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
○ no change
China
deflation watch
stall · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
goldilocks / reflation
expansion · below target · on hold
Improving growth with inflation at/below target — the benign mix. Cyclicals, small-caps and risk assets broadly tend to lead; long bonds lag as growth firms.
● 2 active
Japan ⚠ stale
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
● 1 active

2021-W08

● 3 mechanism(s) firedOpen the full in-depth weekly →

Mechanisms fired: M1_inflation_surprise_up, M5_growth_acceleration, M9_yield_spike

United States
expansion, at target
expansion · at target · on hold
Solid growth with inflation near target. Constructive for risk assets broadly; the watch-item is whether inflation starts to push above target and shifts policy.
○ no change
China
deflation watch
stall · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
○ no change
Euro area ⚠ stale
goldilocks / reflation
expansion · below target · on hold
Improving growth with inflation at/below target — the benign mix. Cyclicals, small-caps and risk assets broadly tend to lead; long bonds lag as growth firms.
● 2 active
Japan ⚠ stale
deflation watch
unknown · deflation risk · on hold
Activity is soft and inflation is at/below zero — the risk is entrenched deflation. Favors duration (long bonds) and quality; cyclicals struggle until policy eases decisively. The catalyst to watch is stimulus / a policy cut.
● 1 active