Macro Intelligence · Yearly board

2020

Yearly aggregate · 52 week regimes · drill into children for finer reads

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Yearly

2020 — 52 weeks across 4 quarters

Dashboard from the materialized period object + the de-blended store. Actuals are deterministic; synthesis (below) is narrated for the current period only.

Headline — where each bloc stands

Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder

Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.

Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion

Indicators — pick a metric, compare blocs · recession shading + crosshair

One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.

Per-region breakdown — 2020 vs 2019, with trend

Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper

A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value
B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric

Whole-board snapshot — parallel coordinates · parallel coordinates

Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2020).

Audit trail — detail tables
📊 Data verdicts · 52 week(s) in period · deterministic, no narration

Standing regime — start → end, per bloc

United States
disinflationary stall → goldilocks / reflation
W06: disinflationary stall → stall-speed, at target · W14: stall-speed, at target → deflation watch · W15: deflation watch → stall-speed, at target · W18: stall-speed, at target → deflation watch · W23: deflation watch → disinflationary stall · W24: disinflationary stall → deflation watch · W27: deflation watch → goldilocks / reflation · W36: goldilocks / reflation → expansion, at target · W40: expansion, at target → goldilocks / reflation · W42: goldilocks / reflation → expansion, at target · W44: expansion, at target → goldilocks / reflation · W49: goldilocks / reflation → expansion, at target · W50: expansion, at target → goldilocks / reflation
China
overheating / late-cycle → deflation watch
W05: overheating / late-cycle → stagflationary · W09: stagflationary → overheating / late-cycle · W24: overheating / late-cycle → stall-speed, at target · W33: stall-speed, at target → disinflationary stall · W37: disinflationary stall → stall-speed, at target · W44: stall-speed, at target → expansion, at target · W46: expansion, at target → goldilocks / reflation · W49: goldilocks / reflation → disinflationary stall · W50: disinflationary stall → deflation watch
Euro area
disinflationary stall → goldilocks / reflation
W08: disinflationary stall → stall-speed, at target · W10: stall-speed, at target → disinflationary stall · W18: disinflationary stall → deflation watch · W39: deflation watch → goldilocks / reflation
Japan
disinflationary stall → deflation watch
W12: disinflationary stall → deflation watch

Mechanisms fired across the period

United States
  • M5 ×21 growth_acceleration
  • M2 ×17 inflation_surprise_down
  • M1 ×15 inflation_surprise_up
  • M6 ×14 growth_slowdown
  • M13 ×4 contraction_easing
China
  • M5 ×14 growth_acceleration
  • M3 ×8 policy_easing
  • M11 ×8 china_credit_impulse
  • M6 ×4 growth_slowdown
Euro area
  • M13 ×13 contraction_easing
  • M5 ×12 growth_acceleration
  • M9 ×9 yield_spike
  • M6 ×3 growth_slowdown
Japan
  • M2 ×14 inflation_surprise_down
  • M1 ×8 inflation_surprise_up
  • M9 ×5 yield_spike

Net indicator moves (first refreshed value → last)

United States
  • core_cpi: 0.26 → 0.20 -0.06 (2020-01-01 → 2020-12-10)
  • core_pce: 1.59 → 1.40 -0.19 (2020-01-01 → 2020-12-23)
  • cpi_yoy: 2.60 → 1.20 -1.40 (2020-01-01 → 2020-12-10)
  • fx: 96.84 → 90.33 -6.51 (2020-01-03 → 2020-12-24)
  • gdp: -5.20 → 33.40 +38.60 (2020-01-01 → 2020-12-22)
  • pmi_mfg: 47.20 → 57.50 +10.30 (2020-01-03 → 2020-12-01)
  • pmi_svc: 53.90 → 55.90 +2.00 (2019-12-04 → 2020-12-03)
  • policy_rate: 1.75 → 0.25 -1.50 (2020-01-05 → 2020-12-27)
  • slope_2s10s: 0.27 → 0.81 +0.54 (2020-01-03 → 2020-12-24)
  • unemployment: 3.60 → 6.70 +3.10 (2020-01-01 → 2020-12-04)
  • yield_10y: 1.80 → 0.94 -0.86 (2020-01-03 → 2020-12-24)
  • yield_2y: 1.53 → 0.13 -1.40 (2020-01-03 → 2020-12-24)
China
  • cpi_yoy: 4.50 → -0.50 -5.00 (2019-12-10 → 2020-12-09)
  • fx: 6.96 → 6.53 -0.43 (2020-01-03 → 2020-12-25)
  • gdp: 6.00 → 4.90 -1.10 (2019-10-18 → 2020-10-19)
  • pmi_mfg: 50.00 → 51.90 +1.90 (2020-01-01 → 2020-12-01)
  • pmi_svc: 53.50 → 56.40 +2.90 (2019-12-31 → 2020-11-30)
  • policy_rate: 4.15 → 3.85 -0.30 (2019-12-20 → 2020-12-21)
  • slope_2s10s: 0.61 → 0.42 -0.18 (2020-01-03 → 2020-12-25)
  • unemployment: 5.30 → 5.20 -0.10 (2020-01-01 → 2020-12-01)
  • yield_10y: 3.14 → 3.19 +0.04 (2020-01-03 → 2020-12-25)
  • yield_2y: 2.54 → 2.77 +0.23 (2020-01-03 → 2020-12-25)
Euro area
  • cpi_yoy: 1.00 → -0.30 -1.30 (2019-12-18 → 2020-12-17)
  • fx: 1.12 → 1.22 +0.10 (2020-01-03 → 2020-12-25)
  • gdp: -0.30 → -0.30 0.00 (2019-12-18 → 2020-12-17)
  • pmi_mfg: 46.30 → 55.50 +9.20 (2020-01-02 → 2020-12-16)
  • pmi_svc: 52.40 → 47.30 -5.10 (2019-12-16 → 2020-12-16)
  • policy_rate: 0.00 → 0.00 0.00 (2019-12-12 → 2020-12-10)
  • unemployment: 7.50 → 8.40 +0.90 (2019-11-29 → 2020-12-02)
  • yield_10y: 0.32 → -0.09 -0.41 (2020-01-01 → 2020-12-01)
Japan
  • core_cpi: 0.50 → -0.40 -0.90 (2019-12-20 → 2020-12-18)
  • cpi_yoy: 0.50 → -0.90 -1.40 (2019-12-20 → 2020-12-18)
  • fx: 108.54 → 103.65 -4.89 (2020-01-03 → 2020-12-25)
  • policy_rate: -0.10 → -0.10 0.00 (2019-10-31 → 2020-12-18)
  • unemployment: 2.20 → 2.90 +0.70 (2019-12-27 → 2020-12-25)
  • yield_10y: -0.07 → 0.02 +0.09 (2020-01-01 → 2020-12-01)

Busiest week: 2020-W09 (8 active mechanisms) · Quietest: 2020-W49 (0 active)

Synthesis

(historical period — no Claude narration run)

Decompose

2020-Q1
quarterly board
2020-Q2
quarterly board
2020-Q3
quarterly board
2020-Q4
quarterly board