Macro Intelligence · Quarterly board

2020-Q4

Quarterly aggregate · 13 week regimes · drill into children for finer reads

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Quarterly

2020-Q4 — 13 weeks across 3 months

Dashboard from the materialized period object + the de-blended store. Actuals are deterministic; synthesis (below) is narrated for the current period only.

Headline — where each bloc stands

Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder

Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.

Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion

Indicators — pick a metric, compare blocs · recession shading + crosshair

One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.

Per-region breakdown — 2020-Q4 vs 2020-Q3, with trend

Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper

A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value

B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric

Whole-board snapshot — parallel coordinates · parallel coordinates

Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2020-Q4).

Audit trail — detail tables

📊 Data verdicts · 13 week(s) in period · deterministic, no narration

Standing regime — start → end, per bloc

United States

goldilocks / reflation · held all period

China

stall-speed, at target → deflation watch

W44: stall-speed, at target → expansion, at target · W46: expansion, at target → goldilocks / reflation · W49: goldilocks / reflation → disinflationary stall · W50: disinflationary stall → deflation watch

Euro area

goldilocks / reflation · held all period

Japan

deflation watch · held all period

Mechanisms fired across the period

United States

M2 ×5 inflation_surprise_down
M5 ×4 growth_acceleration

China

M5 ×5 growth_acceleration

Euro area

M5 ×7 growth_acceleration

Japan

M2 ×3 inflation_surprise_down

Net indicator moves (first refreshed value → last)

United States

core_cpi: 0.14 → 0.20 +0.06 (2020-10-01 → 2020-12-10)
core_pce: 1.42 → 1.40 -0.02 (2020-10-01 → 2020-12-23)
cpi_yoy: 1.23 → 1.20 -0.03 (2020-10-01 → 2020-12-10)
fx: 93.84 → 90.33 -3.51 (2020-10-02 → 2020-12-24)
gdp: 4.60 → 33.40 +28.80 (2020-10-01 → 2020-12-22)
pmi_mfg: 55.40 → 57.50 +2.10 (2020-10-01 → 2020-12-01)
pmi_svc: 56.90 → 55.90 -1.00 (2020-09-03 → 2020-12-03)
policy_rate: 0.25 → 0.25 0.00 (2020-10-04 → 2020-12-27)
slope_2s10s: 0.57 → 0.81 +0.24 (2020-10-02 → 2020-12-24)
unemployment: 7.90 → 6.70 -1.20 (2020-10-02 → 2020-12-04)
yield_10y: 0.70 → 0.94 +0.24 (2020-10-02 → 2020-12-24)
yield_2y: 0.13 → 0.13 0.00 (2020-10-02 → 2020-12-24)

China

cpi_yoy: 2.40 → -0.50 -2.90 (2020-09-09 → 2020-12-09)
fx: 6.79 → 6.53 -0.26 (2020-10-02 → 2020-12-25)
gdp: 3.20 → 4.90 +1.70 (2020-07-16 → 2020-10-19)
pmi_mfg: 51.40 → 51.90 +0.50 (2020-10-01 → 2020-12-01)
pmi_svc: 55.90 → 56.40 +0.50 (2020-09-30 → 2020-11-30)
policy_rate: 3.85 → 3.85 0.00 (2020-09-21 → 2020-12-21)
slope_2s10s: 0.36 → 0.42 +0.07 (2020-09-30 → 2020-12-25)
unemployment: 5.30 → 5.20 -0.10 (2020-10-01 → 2020-12-01)
yield_10y: 3.15 → 3.19 +0.04 (2020-09-30 → 2020-12-25)
yield_2y: 2.79 → 2.77 -0.03 (2020-09-30 → 2020-12-25)

Euro area

cpi_yoy: -0.30 → -0.30 0.00 (2020-10-02 → 2020-12-17)
fx: 1.17 → 1.22 +0.04 (2020-10-02 → 2020-12-25)
gdp: 0.10 → -0.30 -0.40 (2020-10-02 → 2020-12-17)
pmi_mfg: 53.70 → 55.50 +1.80 (2020-10-01 → 2020-12-16)
pmi_svc: 47.60 → 47.30 -0.30 (2020-09-23 → 2020-12-16)
policy_rate: 0.00 → 0.00 0.00 (2020-09-10 → 2020-12-10)
unemployment: 8.10 → 8.40 +0.30 (2020-10-01 → 2020-12-02)
yield_10y: 0.00 → -0.09 -0.09 (2020-10-01 → 2020-12-01)

Japan

core_cpi: -0.40 → -0.40 0.00 (2020-09-18 → 2020-12-18)
cpi_yoy: 0.20 → -0.90 -1.10 (2020-09-18 → 2020-12-18)
fx: 105.54 → 103.65 -1.89 (2020-10-02 → 2020-12-25)
policy_rate: -0.10 → -0.10 0.00 (2020-09-17 → 2020-12-18)
unemployment: 3.00 → 2.90 -0.10 (2020-10-02 → 2020-12-25)
yield_10y: 0.04 → 0.02 -0.02 (2020-10-01 → 2020-12-01)

Busiest week: 2020-W46 (4 active mechanisms) · Quietest: 2020-W49 (0 active)

Synthesis

(historical period — no Claude narration run)

Decompose