Macro Intelligence · Quarterly board

2020-Q3

Quarterly aggregate · 13 week regimes · drill into children for finer reads

Quarterly

2020-Q3 — 13 weeks across 3 months

Dashboard from the materialized period object + the de-blended store. Actuals are deterministic; synthesis (below) is narrated for the current period only.

Headline — where each bloc stands

Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder

Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.

Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion

Indicators — pick a metric, compare blocs · recession shading + crosshair

One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.

Per-region breakdown — 2020-Q3 vs 2020-Q2, with trend

Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper

A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value

B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric

Whole-board snapshot — parallel coordinates · parallel coordinates

Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2020-Q3).

Audit trail — detail tables

📊 Data verdicts · 13 week(s) in period · deterministic, no narration

Standing regime — start → end, per bloc

United States

goldilocks / reflation → expansion, at target

W36: goldilocks / reflation → expansion, at target

China

stall-speed, at target · held all period

Euro area

deflation watch → goldilocks / reflation

W39: deflation watch → goldilocks / reflation

Japan

deflation watch · held all period

Mechanisms fired across the period

United States

M5 ×13 growth_acceleration
M1 ×8 inflation_surprise_up
M2 ×3 inflation_surprise_down

China

M5 ×4 growth_acceleration

Euro area

M5 ×5 growth_acceleration
M13 ×3 contraction_easing

Japan

M1 ×3 inflation_surprise_up
M2 ×2 inflation_surprise_down

Net indicator moves (first refreshed value → last)

United States

core_cpi: 0.58 → 0.40 -0.18 (2020-07-01 → 2020-09-11)
core_pce: 1.21 → 1.48 +0.27 (2020-07-01 → 2020-09-01)
cpi_yoy: 1.00 → 1.30 +0.30 (2020-07-01 → 2020-09-11)
fx: 97.32 → 94.58 -2.74 (2020-07-02 → 2020-09-25)
gdp: 34.90 → -31.70 -66.60 (2020-07-01 → 2020-08-27)
pmi_mfg: 52.60 → 56.00 +3.40 (2020-07-01 → 2020-09-01)
pmi_svc: 45.40 → 56.90 +11.50 (2020-06-03 → 2020-09-03)
policy_rate: 0.25 → 0.25 0.00 (2020-07-05 → 2020-09-27)
slope_2s10s: 0.52 → 0.54 +0.02 (2020-07-02 → 2020-09-25)
unemployment: 11.10 → 8.40 -2.70 (2020-07-02 → 2020-09-04)
yield_10y: 0.68 → 0.66 -0.02 (2020-07-02 → 2020-09-25)
yield_2y: 0.16 → 0.12 -0.04 (2020-07-02 → 2020-09-25)

China

cpi_yoy: 2.40 → 2.40 0.00 (2020-06-10 → 2020-09-09)
fx: 7.07 → 6.83 -0.24 (2020-07-03 → 2020-09-25)
gdp: -6.80 → 3.20 +10.00 (2020-04-17 → 2020-07-16)
pmi_mfg: 51.10 → 51.50 +0.40 (2020-07-01 → 2020-09-01)
pmi_svc: 54.40 → 55.20 +0.80 (2020-06-30 → 2020-08-31)
policy_rate: 3.85 → 3.85 0.00 (2020-06-22 → 2020-09-21)
slope_2s10s: 0.60 → 0.36 -0.24 (2020-07-03 → 2020-09-27)
unemployment: 5.70 → 5.40 -0.30 (2020-07-01 → 2020-09-01)
yield_10y: 2.90 → 3.13 +0.23 (2020-07-03 → 2020-09-27)
yield_2y: 2.29 → 2.77 +0.48 (2020-07-03 → 2020-09-27)

Euro area

cpi_yoy: 0.30 → -0.20 -0.50 (2020-06-30 → 2020-09-17)
fx: 1.12 → 1.17 +0.04 (2020-07-03 → 2020-09-25)
gdp: 0.30 → -0.40 -0.70 (2020-06-30 → 2020-09-17)
pmi_mfg: 47.40 → 53.70 +6.30 (2020-07-01 → 2020-09-23)
pmi_svc: 48.30 → 47.60 -0.70 (2020-07-03 → 2020-09-23)
policy_rate: 0.00 → 0.00 0.00 (2020-06-04 → 2020-09-10)
unemployment: 7.40 → 7.90 +0.50 (2020-07-02 → 2020-09-01)
yield_10y: 0.22 → 0.12 -0.10 (2020-07-01 → 2020-09-01)

Japan

core_cpi: 0.10 → -0.40 -0.50 (2020-06-19 → 2020-09-18)
cpi_yoy: 0.10 → 0.20 +0.10 (2020-06-19 → 2020-09-18)
fx: 107.50 → 105.43 -2.06 (2020-07-03 → 2020-09-25)
policy_rate: -0.10 → -0.10 0.00 (2020-06-16 → 2020-09-17)
unemployment: 3.00 → 2.90 -0.10 (2020-06-30 → 2020-09-01)
yield_10y: 0.01 → 0.01 +0.01 (2020-07-01 → 2020-09-01)

Busiest week: 2020-W39 (5 active mechanisms) · Quietest: 2020-W31 (2 active)

Synthesis

(historical period — no Claude narration run)

Decompose