Macro Intelligence · Quarterly board

2020-Q1

Quarterly aggregate · 13 week regimes · drill into children for finer reads

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Quarterly

2020-Q1 — 13 weeks across 3 months

Dashboard from the materialized period object + the de-blended store. Actuals are deterministic; synthesis (below) is narrated for the current period only.

Headline — where each bloc stands

Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder

Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.

Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion

Indicators — pick a metric, compare blocs · recession shading + crosshair

One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.

Per-region breakdown — 2020-Q1 vs 2019-Q4, with trend

Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper

A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value
B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric

Whole-board snapshot — parallel coordinates · parallel coordinates

Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2020-Q1).

Audit trail — detail tables
📊 Data verdicts · 13 week(s) in period · deterministic, no narration

Standing regime — start → end, per bloc

United States
disinflationary stall → stall-speed, at target
W06: disinflationary stall → stall-speed, at target
China
overheating / late-cycle · held all period
Euro area
disinflationary stall · held all period
Japan
disinflationary stall → deflation watch
W12: disinflationary stall → deflation watch

Mechanisms fired across the period

United States
  • M6 ×5 growth_slowdown
  • M5 ×4 growth_acceleration
  • M1 ×3 inflation_surprise_up
  • M2 ×2 inflation_surprise_down
China
  • M5 ×5 growth_acceleration
  • M6 ×4 growth_slowdown
  • M3 ×4 policy_easing
  • M11 ×4 china_credit_impulse
Euro area
  • M13 ×7 contraction_easing
  • M9 ×5 yield_spike
  • M6 ×1 growth_slowdown
Japan
  • M9 ×5 yield_spike
  • M1 ×3 inflation_surprise_up
  • M2 ×2 inflation_surprise_down

Net indicator moves (first refreshed value → last)

United States
  • core_cpi: 0.26 → 0.20 -0.06 (2020-01-01 → 2020-03-11)
  • core_pce: 1.59 → 1.80 +0.21 (2020-01-01 → 2020-03-27)
  • cpi_yoy: 2.60 → 2.30 -0.30 (2020-01-01 → 2020-03-11)
  • fx: 96.84 → 98.37 +1.53 (2020-01-03 → 2020-03-27)
  • gdp: -5.20 → 2.10 +7.30 (2020-01-01 → 2020-03-26)
  • pmi_mfg: 47.20 → 50.10 +2.90 (2020-01-03 → 2020-03-02)
  • pmi_svc: 53.90 → 57.30 +3.40 (2019-12-04 → 2020-03-04)
  • policy_rate: 1.75 → 0.25 -1.50 (2020-01-05 → 2020-03-29)
  • slope_2s10s: 0.27 → 0.47 +0.20 (2020-01-03 → 2020-03-27)
  • unemployment: 3.60 → 3.50 -0.10 (2020-01-01 → 2020-03-06)
  • yield_10y: 1.80 → 0.72 -1.08 (2020-01-03 → 2020-03-27)
  • yield_2y: 1.53 → 0.25 -1.28 (2020-01-03 → 2020-03-27)
China
  • cpi_yoy: 4.50 → 5.20 +0.70 (2019-12-10 → 2020-03-10)
  • fx: 6.96 → 7.07 +0.11 (2020-01-03 → 2020-03-27)
  • gdp: 6.00 → 6.00 0.00 (2019-10-18 → 2020-01-17)
  • pmi_mfg: 50.00 → 52.00 +2.00 (2020-01-01 → 2020-03-01)
  • pmi_svc: 53.50 → 29.60 -23.90 (2019-12-31 → 2020-02-29)
  • policy_rate: 4.15 → 4.05 -0.10 (2019-12-20 → 2020-03-20)
  • slope_2s10s: 0.61 → 0.62 +0.02 (2020-01-03 → 2020-03-27)
  • unemployment: 5.30 → 5.90 +0.60 (2020-01-01 → 2020-03-01)
  • yield_10y: 3.14 → 2.61 -0.53 (2020-01-03 → 2020-03-27)
  • yield_2y: 2.54 → 1.99 -0.55 (2020-01-03 → 2020-03-27)
Euro area
  • cpi_yoy: 1.00 → 1.20 +0.20 (2019-12-18 → 2020-03-18)
  • fx: 1.12 → 1.10 -0.01 (2020-01-03 → 2020-03-27)
  • gdp: -0.30 → 0.20 +0.50 (2019-12-18 → 2020-03-18)
  • pmi_mfg: 46.30 → 44.80 -1.50 (2020-01-02 → 2020-03-24)
  • pmi_svc: 52.40 → 28.40 -24.00 (2019-12-16 → 2020-03-24)
  • policy_rate: 0.00 → 0.00 0.00 (2019-12-12 → 2020-03-12)
  • unemployment: 7.50 → 7.40 -0.10 (2019-11-29 → 2020-03-03)
  • yield_10y: 0.32 → 0.37 +0.06 (2020-01-01 → 2020-03-01)
Japan
  • core_cpi: 0.50 → 0.20 -0.30 (2019-12-20 → 2020-03-19)
  • cpi_yoy: 0.50 → 0.40 -0.10 (2019-12-20 → 2020-03-19)
  • fx: 108.54 → 109.11 +0.57 (2020-01-03 → 2020-03-27)
  • policy_rate: -0.10 → -0.10 0.00 (2019-10-31 → 2020-03-16)
  • unemployment: 2.20 → 2.40 +0.20 (2019-12-27 → 2020-02-28)
  • yield_10y: -0.07 → 0.01 +0.07 (2020-01-01 → 2020-03-01)

Busiest week: 2020-W09 (8 active mechanisms) · Quietest: 2020-W04 (2 active)

Synthesis

(historical period — no Claude narration run)

Decompose

2020-01
monthly board
2020-02
monthly board
2020-03
monthly board