Macro Intelligence · Quarterly board

2020-Q2

Quarterly aggregate · 13 week regimes · drill into children for finer reads

Quarterly

2020-Q2 — 13 weeks across 3 months

Dashboard from the materialized period object + the de-blended store. Actuals are deterministic; synthesis (below) is narrated for the current period only.

Headline — where each bloc stands

Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder

Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.

Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion

Indicators — pick a metric, compare blocs · recession shading + crosshair

One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.

Per-region breakdown — 2020-Q2 vs 2020-Q1, with trend

Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper

A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value

B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric

Whole-board snapshot — parallel coordinates · parallel coordinates

Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2020-Q2).

Audit trail — detail tables

📊 Data verdicts · 13 week(s) in period · deterministic, no narration

Standing regime — start → end, per bloc

United States

deflation watch · held all period

China

overheating / late-cycle → stall-speed, at target

W24: overheating / late-cycle → stall-speed, at target

Euro area

disinflationary stall → deflation watch

W18: disinflationary stall → deflation watch

Japan

deflation watch · held all period

Mechanisms fired across the period

United States

M6 ×9 growth_slowdown
M2 ×7 inflation_surprise_down
M1 ×4 inflation_surprise_up
M13 ×4 contraction_easing

China

M3 ×4 policy_easing
M11 ×4 china_credit_impulse

Euro area

M9 ×4 yield_spike
M13 ×3 contraction_easing
M6 ×2 growth_slowdown

Japan

M2 ×7 inflation_surprise_down
M1 ×2 inflation_surprise_up

Net indicator moves (first refreshed value → last)

United States

core_cpi: -0.49 → -0.10 +0.39 (2020-04-01 → 2020-06-10)
core_pce: 1.00 → 1.00 0.00 (2020-04-01 → 2020-06-26)
cpi_yoy: 0.31 → 0.10 -0.21 (2020-04-01 → 2020-06-10)
fx: 100.58 → 97.50 -3.08 (2020-04-03 → 2020-06-26)
gdp: -28.00 → -5.00 +23.00 (2020-04-01 → 2020-06-25)
pmi_mfg: 49.10 → 43.10 -6.00 (2020-04-01 → 2020-06-01)
pmi_svc: 52.50 → 45.40 -7.10 (2020-04-03 → 2020-06-03)
policy_rate: 0.25 → 0.25 0.00 (2020-04-05 → 2020-06-28)
slope_2s10s: 0.39 → 0.47 +0.08 (2020-04-03 → 2020-06-26)
unemployment: 4.40 → 13.30 +8.90 (2020-04-03 → 2020-06-05)
yield_10y: 0.62 → 0.64 +0.02 (2020-04-03 → 2020-06-26)
yield_2y: 0.23 → 0.17 -0.06 (2020-04-03 → 2020-06-26)

China

cpi_yoy: 5.20 → 2.40 -2.80 (2020-03-10 → 2020-06-10)
fx: 7.08 → 7.08 -0.01 (2020-04-03 → 2020-06-26)
gdp: 6.00 → -6.80 -12.80 (2020-01-17 → 2020-04-17)
pmi_mfg: 50.80 → 50.90 +0.10 (2020-04-01 → 2020-06-01)
pmi_svc: 52.30 → 53.60 +1.30 (2020-03-31 → 2020-05-31)
policy_rate: 4.05 → 3.85 -0.20 (2020-03-20 → 2020-06-22)
slope_2s10s: 0.67 → 0.56 -0.10 (2020-04-03 → 2020-06-28)
unemployment: 6.00 → 5.70 -0.30 (2020-04-01 → 2020-06-01)
yield_10y: 2.60 → 2.84 +0.24 (2020-04-03 → 2020-06-28)
yield_2y: 1.93 → 2.28 +0.35 (2020-04-03 → 2020-06-28)

Euro area

cpi_yoy: 0.70 → 0.10 -0.60 (2020-03-31 → 2020-06-17)
fx: 1.08 → 1.12 +0.04 (2020-04-03 → 2020-06-26)
gdp: 0.50 → -0.10 -0.60 (2020-03-31 → 2020-06-17)
pmi_mfg: 44.50 → 46.90 +2.40 (2020-04-01 → 2020-06-23)
pmi_svc: 26.40 → 47.30 +20.90 (2020-04-03 → 2020-06-23)
policy_rate: 0.00 → 0.00 0.00 (2020-03-12 → 2020-06-04)
unemployment: 7.30 → 7.30 0.00 (2020-04-01 → 2020-06-03)
yield_10y: 0.55 → 0.35 -0.20 (2020-04-01 → 2020-06-01)

Japan

core_cpi: 0.20 → 0.10 -0.10 (2020-03-19 → 2020-06-19)
cpi_yoy: 0.40 → 0.10 -0.30 (2020-03-19 → 2020-06-19)
fx: 108.00 → 107.15 -0.85 (2020-04-03 → 2020-06-26)
policy_rate: -0.10 → -0.10 0.00 (2020-03-16 → 2020-06-16)
unemployment: 2.40 → 2.80 +0.40 (2020-03-31 → 2020-05-29)
yield_10y: -0.04 → 0.03 +0.07 (2020-04-01 → 2020-06-01)

Busiest week: 2020-W17 (6 active mechanisms) · Quietest: 2020-W19 (3 active)

Synthesis

(historical period — no Claude narration run)

Decompose