Macro Intelligence · Yearly board

2019

Yearly aggregate · 52 week regimes · drill into children for finer reads

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Yearly

2019 — 52 weeks across 4 quarters

Dashboard from the materialized period object + the de-blended store. Actuals are deterministic; synthesis (below) is narrated for the current period only.

Headline — where each bloc stands

Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder

Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.

Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion

Indicators — pick a metric, compare blocs · recession shading + crosshair

One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.

Per-region breakdown — 2019 vs 2018, with trend

Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper

A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value
B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric

Whole-board snapshot — parallel coordinates · parallel coordinates

Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2019).

Audit trail — detail tables
📊 Data verdicts · 52 week(s) in period · deterministic, no narration

Standing regime — start → end, per bloc

United States
expansion, at target → stall-speed, at target
W27: expansion, at target → stall-speed, at target · W40: stall-speed, at target → disinflationary stall · W44: disinflationary stall → stall-speed, at target
China
stall-speed, at target → overheating / late-cycle
W24: stall-speed, at target → disinflationary stall · W32: disinflationary stall → overheating / late-cycle
Euro area
stall-speed, at target → disinflationary stall
W12: stall-speed, at target → disinflationary stall
Japan
disinflationary stall · held all period

Mechanisms fired across the period

United States
  • M5 ×8 growth_acceleration
  • M6 ×8 growth_slowdown
  • M13 ×5 contraction_easing
  • M9 ×2 yield_spike
China
  • M5 ×9 growth_acceleration
  • M6 ×8 growth_slowdown
  • M13 ×4 contraction_easing
  • M3 ×4 policy_easing
  • M11 ×4 china_credit_impulse
Euro area
  • M6 ×7 growth_slowdown
  • M13 ×4 contraction_easing
  • M9 ×4 yield_spike
Japan
  • M1 ×10 inflation_surprise_up
  • M2 ×4 inflation_surprise_down

Net indicator moves (first refreshed value → last)

United States
  • core_cpi: 0.27 → 0.20 -0.07 (2019-01-01 → 2019-12-11)
  • core_pce: 1.84 → 1.60 -0.24 (2019-01-01 → 2019-12-20)
  • cpi_yoy: 1.49 → 2.10 +0.61 (2019-01-01 → 2019-12-11)
  • fx: 96.19 → 96.92 +0.73 (2019-01-04 → 2019-12-27)
  • gdp: 2.50 → 2.10 -0.40 (2019-01-01 → 2019-12-20)
  • pmi_mfg: 54.30 → 48.10 -6.20 (2019-01-03 → 2019-12-02)
  • pmi_svc: 60.70 → 53.90 -6.80 (2018-12-06 → 2019-12-04)
  • policy_rate: 2.50 → 1.75 -0.75 (2019-01-06 → 2019-12-29)
  • slope_2s10s: 0.17 → 0.29 +0.12 (2019-01-04 → 2019-12-27)
  • unemployment: 3.90 → 3.50 -0.40 (2019-01-04 → 2019-12-06)
  • yield_10y: 2.67 → 1.88 -0.79 (2019-01-04 → 2019-12-27)
  • yield_2y: 2.50 → 1.59 -0.91 (2019-01-04 → 2019-12-27)
China
  • cpi_yoy: 2.20 → 4.50 +2.30 (2018-12-09 → 2019-12-10)
  • fx: 6.87 → 7.00 +0.13 (2019-01-04 → 2019-12-27)
  • gdp: 6.50 → 6.00 -0.50 (2018-10-19 → 2019-10-18)
  • pmi_mfg: 49.50 → 50.20 +0.70 (2019-01-01 → 2019-12-01)
  • pmi_svc: 53.80 → 54.40 +0.60 (2018-12-31 → 2019-11-30)
  • policy_rate: 4.31 → 4.15 -0.16 (2019-01-04 → 2019-12-20)
  • slope_2s10s: 0.54 → 0.64 +0.09 (2019-01-04 → 2019-12-27)
  • unemployment: 5.10 → 5.20 +0.10 (2019-01-01 → 2019-12-01)
  • yield_10y: 3.15 → 3.13 -0.02 (2019-01-04 → 2019-12-27)
  • yield_2y: 2.61 → 2.49 -0.11 (2019-01-04 → 2019-12-27)
Euro area
  • cpi_yoy: 1.60 → 1.00 -0.60 (2019-01-04 → 2019-12-18)
  • fx: 1.14 → 1.11 -0.03 (2019-01-04 → 2019-12-27)
  • gdp: -0.20 → -0.30 -0.10 (2018-12-17 → 2019-12-18)
  • pmi_mfg: 51.40 → 45.90 -5.50 (2019-01-02 → 2019-12-16)
  • pmi_svc: 51.20 → 52.40 +1.20 (2019-01-04 → 2019-12-16)
  • policy_rate: 0.00 → 0.00 0.00 (2018-12-13 → 2019-12-12)
  • unemployment: 8.10 → 7.50 -0.60 (2018-11-30 → 2019-11-29)
  • yield_10y: 1.20 → 0.37 -0.84 (2019-01-01 → 2019-12-01)
Japan
  • core_cpi: 0.10 → 0.50 +0.40 (2018-12-21 → 2019-12-20)
  • cpi_yoy: 0.80 → 0.50 -0.30 (2018-12-21 → 2019-12-20)
  • fx: 107.81 → 109.54 +1.73 (2019-01-04 → 2019-12-27)
  • policy_rate: -0.10 → -0.10 0.00 (2018-12-20 → 2019-10-31)
  • unemployment: 2.50 → 2.20 -0.30 (2018-12-28 → 2019-12-27)
  • yield_10y: 0.00 → -0.03 -0.03 (2019-01-01 → 2019-12-01)

Busiest week: 2019-W37 (4 active mechanisms) · Quietest: 2019-W02 (0 active)

Synthesis

(historical period — no Claude narration run)

Decompose

2019-Q1
quarterly board
2019-Q2
quarterly board
2019-Q3
quarterly board
2019-Q4
quarterly board