Macro Intelligence · Quarterly board

2019-Q4

Quarterly aggregate · 13 week regimes · drill into children for finer reads

Quarterly

2019-Q4 — 13 weeks across 3 months

Dashboard from the materialized period object + the de-blended store. Actuals are deterministic; synthesis (below) is narrated for the current period only.

Headline — where each bloc stands

Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder

Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.

Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion

Indicators — pick a metric, compare blocs · recession shading + crosshair

One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.

Per-region breakdown — 2019-Q4 vs 2019-Q3, with trend

Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper

A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value

B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric

Whole-board snapshot — parallel coordinates · parallel coordinates

Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2019-Q4).

Audit trail — detail tables

📊 Data verdicts · 13 week(s) in period · deterministic, no narration

Standing regime — start → end, per bloc

United States

disinflationary stall → stall-speed, at target

W44: disinflationary stall → stall-speed, at target

China

overheating / late-cycle · held all period

Euro area

disinflationary stall · held all period

Japan

deflation watch → disinflationary stall

W51: deflation watch → disinflationary stall

Mechanisms fired across the period

United States

M13 ×5 contraction_easing
M6 ×4 growth_slowdown

China

M6 ×4 growth_slowdown
M5 ×4 growth_acceleration

Euro area

M9 ×4 yield_spike
M13 ×2 contraction_easing
M6 ×2 growth_slowdown

Japan

M1 ×2 inflation_surprise_up

Net indicator moves (first refreshed value → last)

United States

core_cpi: 0.22 → 0.20 -0.02 (2019-10-01 → 2019-12-11)
core_pce: 1.62 → 1.60 -0.02 (2019-10-01 → 2019-12-20)
cpi_yoy: 1.73 → 2.10 +0.37 (2019-10-01 → 2019-12-11)
fx: 98.81 → 96.92 -1.89 (2019-10-04 → 2019-12-27)
gdp: 2.80 → 2.10 -0.70 (2019-10-01 → 2019-12-20)
pmi_mfg: 47.80 → 48.10 +0.30 (2019-10-01 → 2019-12-02)
pmi_svc: 52.60 → 53.90 +1.30 (2019-10-03 → 2019-12-04)
policy_rate: 2.00 → 1.75 -0.25 (2019-10-06 → 2019-12-29)
slope_2s10s: 0.12 → 0.29 +0.17 (2019-10-04 → 2019-12-27)
unemployment: 3.50 → 3.50 0.00 (2019-10-04 → 2019-12-06)
yield_10y: 1.52 → 1.88 +0.36 (2019-10-04 → 2019-12-27)
yield_2y: 1.40 → 1.59 +0.19 (2019-10-04 → 2019-12-27)

China

cpi_yoy: 2.80 → 4.50 +1.70 (2019-09-10 → 2019-12-10)
fx: 7.15 → 7.00 -0.15 (2019-10-04 → 2019-12-27)
gdp: 6.20 → 6.00 -0.20 (2019-07-15 → 2019-10-18)
pmi_mfg: 49.30 → 50.20 +0.90 (2019-10-01 → 2019-12-01)
pmi_svc: 53.70 → 54.40 +0.70 (2019-09-30 → 2019-11-30)
policy_rate: 4.20 → 4.15 -0.05 (2019-09-20 → 2019-12-20)
slope_2s10s: 0.42 → 0.64 +0.22 (2019-09-30 → 2019-12-27)
unemployment: 5.10 → 5.20 +0.10 (2019-10-01 → 2019-12-01)
yield_10y: 3.14 → 3.13 -0.01 (2019-09-30 → 2019-12-27)
yield_2y: 2.72 → 2.49 -0.23 (2019-09-30 → 2019-12-27)

Euro area

cpi_yoy: 0.90 → 1.00 +0.10 (2019-10-01 → 2019-12-18)
fx: 1.10 → 1.11 +0.01 (2019-10-04 → 2019-12-27)
gdp: 0.10 → -0.30 -0.40 (2019-09-18 → 2019-12-18)
pmi_mfg: 45.70 → 45.90 +0.20 (2019-10-01 → 2019-12-16)
pmi_svc: 51.60 → 52.40 +0.80 (2019-10-03 → 2019-12-16)
policy_rate: 0.00 → 0.00 0.00 (2019-09-12 → 2019-12-12)
unemployment: 7.40 → 7.50 +0.10 (2019-09-30 → 2019-11-29)
yield_10y: 0.13 → 0.37 +0.23 (2019-10-01 → 2019-12-01)

Japan

core_cpi: 0.40 → 0.50 +0.10 (2019-09-20 → 2019-12-20)
cpi_yoy: 0.30 → 0.50 +0.20 (2019-09-20 → 2019-12-20)
fx: 106.83 → 109.54 +2.72 (2019-10-04 → 2019-12-27)
policy_rate: -0.10 → -0.10 0.00 (2019-09-19 → 2019-10-31)
unemployment: 2.20 → 2.20 0.00 (2019-10-01 → 2019-12-27)
yield_10y: -0.15 → -0.03 +0.12 (2019-10-01 → 2019-12-01)

Busiest week: 2019-W47 (4 active mechanisms) · Quietest: 2019-W49 (0 active)

Synthesis

(historical period — no Claude narration run)

Decompose