Macro Intelligence · Quarterly board

2019-Q2

Quarterly aggregate · 13 week regimes · drill into children for finer reads

Quarterly

2019-Q2 — 13 weeks across 3 months

Dashboard from the materialized period object + the de-blended store. Actuals are deterministic; synthesis (below) is narrated for the current period only.

Headline — where each bloc stands

Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder

Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.

Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion

Indicators — pick a metric, compare blocs · recession shading + crosshair

One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.

Per-region breakdown — 2019-Q2 vs 2019-Q1, with trend

Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper

A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value

B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric

Whole-board snapshot — parallel coordinates · parallel coordinates

Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2019-Q2).

Audit trail — detail tables

📊 Data verdicts · 13 week(s) in period · deterministic, no narration

Standing regime — start → end, per bloc

United States

expansion, at target · held all period

China

stall-speed, at target → disinflationary stall

W24: stall-speed, at target → disinflationary stall

Euro area

disinflationary stall · held all period

Japan

deflation watch → disinflationary stall

W16: deflation watch → disinflationary stall

Mechanisms fired across the period

United States

M5 ×4 growth_acceleration

China

M6 ×4 growth_slowdown

Euro area

no fires

Japan

M1 ×4 inflation_surprise_up
M2 ×2 inflation_surprise_down

Net indicator moves (first refreshed value → last)

United States

core_cpi: 0.16 → 0.10 -0.06 (2019-04-01 → 2019-06-12)
core_pce: 1.64 → 1.60 -0.04 (2019-04-01 → 2019-06-28)
cpi_yoy: 2.00 → 1.80 -0.20 (2019-04-01 → 2019-06-12)
fx: 97.40 → 96.13 -1.27 (2019-04-05 → 2019-06-28)
gdp: 3.40 → 3.10 -0.30 (2019-04-01 → 2019-06-27)
pmi_mfg: 55.30 → 52.10 -3.20 (2019-04-01 → 2019-06-03)
pmi_svc: 56.10 → 56.90 +0.80 (2019-04-03 → 2019-06-05)
policy_rate: 2.50 → 2.50 0.00 (2019-04-07 → 2019-06-30)
slope_2s10s: 0.15 → 0.25 +0.10 (2019-04-05 → 2019-06-28)
unemployment: 3.80 → 3.60 -0.20 (2019-04-05 → 2019-06-07)
yield_10y: 2.50 → 2.00 -0.50 (2019-04-05 → 2019-06-28)
yield_2y: 2.35 → 1.75 -0.60 (2019-04-05 → 2019-06-28)

China

cpi_yoy: 1.50 → 2.70 +1.20 (2019-03-09 → 2019-06-12)
fx: 6.72 → 6.87 +0.15 (2019-04-05 → 2019-06-28)
gdp: 6.40 → 6.40 0.00 (2019-01-21 → 2019-04-17)
pmi_mfg: 50.10 → 49.40 -0.70 (2019-04-01 → 2019-06-01)
pmi_svc: 54.80 → 54.20 -0.60 (2019-03-31 → 2019-06-30)
policy_rate: 4.31 → 4.31 0.00 (2019-04-04 → 2019-06-28)
slope_2s10s: 0.65 → 0.38 -0.28 (2019-04-04 → 2019-06-28)
unemployment: 5.00 → 5.10 +0.10 (2019-04-01 → 2019-06-01)
yield_10y: 3.27 → 3.23 -0.04 (2019-04-04 → 2019-06-28)
yield_2y: 2.61 → 2.85 +0.23 (2019-04-04 → 2019-06-28)

Euro area

cpi_yoy: 1.40 → 1.20 -0.20 (2019-04-01 → 2019-06-28)
fx: 1.12 → 1.14 +0.01 (2019-04-05 → 2019-06-28)
gdp: 0.30 → 0.10 -0.20 (2019-03-15 → 2019-06-18)
pmi_mfg: 47.50 → 47.80 +0.30 (2019-04-01 → 2019-06-21)
pmi_svc: 53.30 → 53.40 +0.10 (2019-04-03 → 2019-06-21)
policy_rate: 0.00 → 0.00 0.00 (2019-03-07 → 2019-06-06)
unemployment: 7.80 → 7.60 -0.20 (2019-04-01 → 2019-06-04)
yield_10y: 0.95 → 0.57 -0.38 (2019-04-01 → 2019-06-01)

Japan

core_cpi: 0.30 → 0.30 0.00 (2019-03-22 → 2019-06-21)
cpi_yoy: 0.20 → 0.70 +0.50 (2019-03-22 → 2019-06-21)
fx: 111.66 → 107.75 -3.91 (2019-04-05 → 2019-06-28)
policy_rate: -0.10 → -0.10 0.00 (2019-03-15 → 2019-06-20)
unemployment: 2.30 → 2.40 +0.10 (2019-03-29 → 2019-06-28)
yield_10y: -0.04 → -0.17 -0.12 (2019-04-01 → 2019-06-01)

Busiest week: 2019-W21 (2 active mechanisms) · Quietest: 2019-W14 (1 active)

Synthesis

(historical period — no Claude narration run)

Decompose