Macro Intelligence · Quarterly board

2019-Q1

Quarterly aggregate · 13 week regimes · drill into children for finer reads

Quarterly

2019-Q1 — 13 weeks across 3 months

Dashboard from the materialized period object + the de-blended store. Actuals are deterministic; synthesis (below) is narrated for the current period only.

Headline — where each bloc stands

Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder

Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.

Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion

Indicators — pick a metric, compare blocs · recession shading + crosshair

One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.

Per-region breakdown — 2019-Q1 vs 2018-Q4, with trend

Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper

A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value

B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric

Whole-board snapshot — parallel coordinates · parallel coordinates

Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2019-Q1).

Audit trail — detail tables

📊 Data verdicts · 13 week(s) in period · deterministic, no narration

Standing regime — start → end, per bloc

United States

expansion, at target · held all period

China

stall-speed, at target · held all period

Euro area

stall-speed, at target → disinflationary stall

W12: stall-speed, at target → disinflationary stall

Japan

disinflationary stall → deflation watch

W03: disinflationary stall → deflation watch

Mechanisms fired across the period

United States

M5 ×4 growth_acceleration
M9 ×1 yield_spike

China

M5 ×5 growth_acceleration

Euro area

M6 ×3 growth_slowdown

Japan

M1 ×4 inflation_surprise_up

Net indicator moves (first refreshed value → last)

United States

core_cpi: 0.27 → 0.10 -0.17 (2019-01-01 → 2019-03-12)
core_pce: 1.84 → 1.80 -0.04 (2019-01-01 → 2019-03-29)
cpi_yoy: 1.49 → 1.50 +0.01 (2019-01-01 → 2019-03-12)
fx: 96.19 → 97.28 +1.09 (2019-01-04 → 2019-03-29)
gdp: 2.50 → 2.20 -0.30 (2019-01-01 → 2019-03-28)
pmi_mfg: 54.30 → 54.20 -0.10 (2019-01-03 → 2019-03-01)
pmi_svc: 60.70 → 59.70 -1.00 (2018-12-06 → 2019-03-05)
policy_rate: 2.50 → 2.50 0.00 (2019-01-06 → 2019-03-31)
slope_2s10s: 0.17 → 0.14 -0.03 (2019-01-04 → 2019-03-29)
unemployment: 3.90 → 3.80 -0.10 (2019-01-04 → 2019-03-08)
yield_10y: 2.67 → 2.41 -0.26 (2019-01-04 → 2019-03-29)
yield_2y: 2.50 → 2.27 -0.23 (2019-01-04 → 2019-03-29)

China

cpi_yoy: 2.20 → 1.50 -0.70 (2018-12-09 → 2019-03-09)
fx: 6.87 → 6.74 -0.13 (2019-01-04 → 2019-03-29)
gdp: 6.50 → 6.40 -0.10 (2018-10-19 → 2019-01-21)
pmi_mfg: 49.50 → 50.50 +1.00 (2019-01-01 → 2019-03-01)
pmi_svc: 53.80 → 54.80 +1.00 (2018-12-31 → 2019-03-31)
policy_rate: 4.31 → 4.31 0.00 (2019-01-04 → 2019-03-29)
slope_2s10s: 0.54 → 0.48 -0.06 (2019-01-04 → 2019-03-29)
unemployment: 5.10 → 5.20 +0.10 (2019-01-01 → 2019-03-01)
yield_10y: 3.15 → 3.07 -0.08 (2019-01-04 → 2019-03-29)
yield_2y: 2.61 → 2.59 -0.02 (2019-01-04 → 2019-03-29)

Euro area

cpi_yoy: 1.60 → 1.50 -0.10 (2019-01-04 → 2019-03-15)
fx: 1.14 → 1.12 -0.02 (2019-01-04 → 2019-03-29)
gdp: -0.20 → 0.30 +0.50 (2018-12-17 → 2019-03-15)
pmi_mfg: 51.40 → 47.60 -3.80 (2019-01-02 → 2019-03-22)
pmi_svc: 51.20 → 52.70 +1.50 (2019-01-04 → 2019-03-22)
policy_rate: 0.00 → 0.00 0.00 (2018-12-13 → 2019-03-07)
unemployment: 8.10 → 7.80 -0.30 (2018-11-30 → 2019-03-01)
yield_10y: 1.20 → 0.99 -0.21 (2019-01-01 → 2019-03-01)

Japan

core_cpi: 0.10 → 0.30 +0.20 (2018-12-21 → 2019-03-22)
cpi_yoy: 0.80 → 0.20 -0.60 (2018-12-21 → 2019-03-22)
fx: 107.81 → 110.64 +2.83 (2019-01-04 → 2019-03-29)
policy_rate: -0.10 → -0.10 0.00 (2018-12-20 → 2019-03-15)
unemployment: 2.50 → 2.30 -0.20 (2018-12-28 → 2019-03-29)
yield_10y: 0.00 → -0.10 -0.10 (2019-01-01 → 2019-03-01)

Busiest week: 2019-W08 (3 active mechanisms) · Quietest: 2019-W02 (0 active)

Synthesis

(historical period — no Claude narration run)

Decompose