Macro Intelligence · Quarterly board

2019-Q3

Quarterly aggregate · 13 week regimes · drill into children for finer reads

Quarterly

2019-Q3 — 13 weeks across 3 months

Dashboard from the materialized period object + the de-blended store. Actuals are deterministic; synthesis (below) is narrated for the current period only.

Headline — where each bloc stands

Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder

Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.

Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion

Indicators — pick a metric, compare blocs · recession shading + crosshair

One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.

Per-region breakdown — 2019-Q3 vs 2019-Q2, with trend

Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper

A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value

B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric

Whole-board snapshot — parallel coordinates · parallel coordinates

Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2019-Q3).

Audit trail — detail tables

📊 Data verdicts · 13 week(s) in period · deterministic, no narration

Standing regime — start → end, per bloc

United States

stall-speed, at target · held all period

China

disinflationary stall → overheating / late-cycle

W32: disinflationary stall → overheating / late-cycle

Euro area

disinflationary stall · held all period

Japan

disinflationary stall → deflation watch

W38: disinflationary stall → deflation watch

Mechanisms fired across the period

United States

M6 ×4 growth_slowdown
M9 ×1 yield_spike

China

M13 ×4 contraction_easing
M3 ×4 policy_easing
M11 ×4 china_credit_impulse

Euro area

M6 ×2 growth_slowdown
M13 ×2 contraction_easing

Japan

M2 ×2 inflation_surprise_down

Net indicator moves (first refreshed value → last)

United States

core_cpi: 0.21 → 0.30 +0.09 (2019-07-01 → 2019-09-12)
core_pce: 1.64 → 1.80 +0.16 (2019-07-01 → 2019-09-27)
cpi_yoy: 1.83 → 1.70 -0.13 (2019-07-01 → 2019-09-12)
fx: 97.25 → 99.11 +1.86 (2019-07-05 → 2019-09-27)
gdp: 4.80 → 2.00 -2.80 (2019-07-01 → 2019-09-26)
pmi_mfg: 51.70 → 49.10 -2.60 (2019-07-01 → 2019-09-03)
pmi_svc: 55.10 → 56.40 +1.30 (2019-07-03 → 2019-09-05)
policy_rate: 2.50 → 2.00 -0.50 (2019-07-07 → 2019-09-29)
slope_2s10s: 0.17 → 0.06 -0.11 (2019-07-05 → 2019-09-27)
unemployment: 3.70 → 3.70 0.00 (2019-07-05 → 2019-09-06)
yield_10y: 2.04 → 1.69 -0.35 (2019-07-05 → 2019-09-27)
yield_2y: 1.87 → 1.63 -0.24 (2019-07-05 → 2019-09-27)

China

cpi_yoy: 2.70 → 2.80 +0.10 (2019-06-12 → 2019-09-10)
fx: 6.87 → 7.13 +0.26 (2019-07-05 → 2019-09-27)
gdp: 6.40 → 6.20 -0.20 (2019-04-17 → 2019-07-15)
pmi_mfg: 49.70 → 49.80 +0.10 (2019-07-01 → 2019-09-01)
pmi_svc: 54.20 → 53.80 -0.40 (2019-06-30 → 2019-08-31)
policy_rate: 4.31 → 4.20 -0.11 (2019-07-05 → 2019-09-20)
slope_2s10s: 0.35 → 0.43 +0.08 (2019-07-05 → 2019-09-29)
unemployment: 5.30 → 5.20 -0.10 (2019-07-01 → 2019-09-01)
yield_10y: 3.17 → 3.14 -0.03 (2019-07-05 → 2019-09-29)
yield_2y: 2.82 → 2.71 -0.11 (2019-07-05 → 2019-09-29)

Euro area

cpi_yoy: 1.20 → 1.00 -0.20 (2019-06-28 → 2019-09-18)
fx: 1.13 → 1.09 -0.04 (2019-07-05 → 2019-09-27)
gdp: 0.10 → 0.10 0.00 (2019-06-18 → 2019-09-18)
pmi_mfg: 47.60 → 45.60 -2.00 (2019-07-01 → 2019-09-23)
pmi_svc: 53.60 → 52.00 -1.60 (2019-07-03 → 2019-09-23)
policy_rate: 0.00 → 0.00 0.00 (2019-06-06 → 2019-09-12)
unemployment: 7.50 → 7.50 0.00 (2019-07-01 → 2019-08-30)
yield_10y: 0.36 → 0.05 -0.31 (2019-07-01 → 2019-09-01)

Japan

core_cpi: 0.30 → 0.40 +0.10 (2019-06-21 → 2019-09-20)
cpi_yoy: 0.70 → 0.30 -0.40 (2019-06-21 → 2019-09-20)
fx: 107.81 → 107.76 -0.05 (2019-07-05 → 2019-09-27)
policy_rate: -0.10 → -0.10 0.00 (2019-06-20 → 2019-09-19)
unemployment: 2.40 → 2.20 -0.20 (2019-06-28 → 2019-08-30)
yield_10y: -0.16 → -0.21 -0.06 (2019-07-01 → 2019-09-01)

Busiest week: 2019-W37 (4 active mechanisms) · Quietest: 2019-W31 (0 active)

Synthesis

(historical period — no Claude narration run)

Decompose