Macro Intelligence · Yearly board

2018

Yearly aggregate · 52 week regimes · drill into children for finer reads

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Yearly

2018 — 52 weeks across 4 quarters

Dashboard from the materialized period object + the de-blended store. Actuals are deterministic; synthesis (below) is narrated for the current period only.

Headline — where each bloc stands

Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder

Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.

Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion

Indicators — pick a metric, compare blocs · recession shading + crosshair

One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.

Per-region breakdown — 2018 vs 2017, with trend

Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper

A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value
B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric

Whole-board snapshot — parallel coordinates · parallel coordinates

Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2018).

Audit trail — detail tables
📊 Data verdicts · 52 week(s) in period · deterministic, no narration

Standing regime — start → end, per bloc

United States
expansion, at target · held all period
China
stall-speed, at target · held all period
Euro area
expansion, at target → stall-speed, at target
W09: expansion, at target → goldilocks / reflation · W14: goldilocks / reflation → expansion, at target · W18: expansion, at target → goldilocks / reflation · W22: goldilocks / reflation → expansion, at target · W47: expansion, at target → stall-speed, at target
Japan
disinflationary stall · held all period

Mechanisms fired across the period

United States
  • M5 ×26 growth_acceleration
  • M1 ×1 inflation_surprise_up
China
  • M5 ×8 growth_acceleration
  • M6 ×5 growth_slowdown
Euro area
  • M9 ×20 yield_spike
Japan
  • M1 ×9 inflation_surprise_up
  • M2 ×5 inflation_surprise_down

Net indicator moves (first refreshed value → last)

United States
  • core_cpi: 0.34 → 0.20 -0.14 (2018-01-01 → 2018-12-12)
  • core_pce: 1.63 → 1.90 +0.27 (2018-01-01 → 2018-12-21)
  • cpi_yoy: 2.15 → 2.20 +0.05 (2018-01-01 → 2018-12-12)
  • fx: 94.19 → 96.39 +2.20 (2018-05-25 → 2018-12-28)
  • gdp: 3.30 → 3.40 +0.10 (2018-01-01 → 2018-12-21)
  • pmi_mfg: 59.70 → 58.80 -0.90 (2018-01-03 → 2018-12-03)
  • pmi_svc: 55.90 → 60.70 +4.80 (2018-01-05 → 2018-12-06)
  • policy_rate: 1.50 → 2.50 +1.00 (2018-01-07 → 2018-12-30)
  • slope_2s10s: 0.51 → 0.20 -0.31 (2018-01-05 → 2018-12-28)
  • unemployment: 4.10 → 3.70 -0.40 (2018-01-05 → 2018-12-07)
  • yield_10y: 2.47 → 2.72 +0.25 (2018-01-05 → 2018-12-28)
  • yield_2y: 1.96 → 2.52 +0.56 (2018-01-05 → 2018-12-28)
China
  • cpi_yoy: 1.70 → 2.20 +0.50 (2017-12-09 → 2018-12-09)
  • fx: 6.38 → 6.87 +0.49 (2018-05-25 → 2018-12-28)
  • gdp: 6.80 → 6.50 -0.30 (2017-10-19 → 2018-10-19)
  • pmi_mfg: 51.30 → 49.40 -1.90 (2018-01-01 → 2018-12-01)
  • pmi_svc: 55.00 → 53.40 -1.60 (2017-12-31 → 2018-11-30)
  • policy_rate: 4.30 → 4.31 +0.01 (2018-01-05 → 2018-12-29)
  • slope_2s10s: 0.29 → 0.52 +0.23 (2018-01-05 → 2018-12-30)
  • unemployment: 5.00 → 4.90 -0.10 (2018-01-01 → 2018-12-01)
  • yield_10y: 3.92 → 3.23 -0.69 (2018-01-05 → 2018-12-30)
  • yield_2y: 3.63 → 2.71 -0.92 (2018-01-05 → 2018-12-30)
Euro area
  • cpi_yoy: 1.40 → 1.90 +0.50 (2018-01-05 → 2018-12-17)
  • fx: 1.17 → 1.14 -0.03 (2018-05-25 → 2018-12-28)
  • gdp: 0.10 → -0.20 -0.30 (2017-12-18 → 2018-12-17)
  • pmi_mfg: 60.60 → 51.40 -9.20 (2018-01-02 → 2018-12-14)
  • pmi_svc: 56.60 → 51.40 -5.20 (2018-01-04 → 2018-12-14)
  • policy_rate: 0.00 → 0.00 0.00 (2017-12-14 → 2018-12-13)
  • unemployment: 8.80 → 8.10 -0.70 (2017-11-30 → 2018-11-30)
  • yield_10y: 1.03 → 1.21 +0.18 (2018-01-01 → 2018-12-01)
Japan
  • core_cpi: 0.10 → 0.10 0.00 (2017-12-26 → 2018-12-21)
  • cpi_yoy: 0.60 → 0.80 +0.20 (2017-12-26 → 2018-12-21)
  • fx: 109.31 → 110.86 +1.54 (2018-05-25 → 2018-12-28)
  • policy_rate: -0.10 → -0.10 0.00 (2017-12-21 → 2018-12-20)
  • unemployment: 2.70 → 2.50 -0.20 (2017-12-26 → 2018-12-28)
  • yield_10y: 0.08 → -0.01 -0.09 (2018-01-01 → 2018-12-01)

Busiest week: 2018-W01 (3 active mechanisms) · Quietest: 2018-W35 (0 active)

Synthesis

(historical period — no Claude narration run)

Decompose

2018-Q1
quarterly board
2018-Q2
quarterly board
2018-Q3
quarterly board
2018-Q4
quarterly board