Macro Intelligence · Quarterly board

2018-Q1

Quarterly aggregate · 12 week regimes · drill into children for finer reads

Quarterly

2018-Q1 — 12 weeks across 3 months

Dashboard from the materialized period object + the de-blended store. Actuals are deterministic; synthesis (below) is narrated for the current period only.

Headline — where each bloc stands

Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder

Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.

Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion

Indicators — pick a metric, compare blocs · recession shading + crosshair

One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.

Per-region breakdown — 2018-Q1 vs 2017-Q4, with trend

Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper

A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value

B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric

Whole-board snapshot — parallel coordinates · parallel coordinates

Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2018-Q1).

Audit trail — detail tables

📊 Data verdicts · 12 week(s) in period · deterministic, no narration

Standing regime — start → end, per bloc

United States

expansion, at target · held all period

China

stall-speed, at target → overheating / late-cycle

W10: stall-speed, at target → overheating / late-cycle

Euro area

expansion, at target → goldilocks / reflation

W09: expansion, at target → goldilocks / reflation

Japan

disinflationary stall → stall-speed, at target

W09: disinflationary stall → stall-speed, at target

Mechanisms fired across the period

United States

M5 ×8 growth_acceleration
M1 ×1 inflation_surprise_up

China

M5 ×4 growth_acceleration

Euro area

M9 ×8 yield_spike

Japan

no fires

Net indicator moves (first refreshed value → last)

United States

core_cpi: 0.34 → 0.20 -0.14 (2018-01-01 → 2018-03-13)
core_pce: 1.63 → 1.91 +0.28 (2018-01-01 → 2018-03-01)
cpi_yoy: 2.15 → 2.20 +0.05 (2018-01-01 → 2018-03-13)
gdp: 3.30 → 2.50 -0.80 (2018-01-01 → 2018-02-28)
pmi_mfg: 59.70 → 60.70 +1.00 (2018-01-03 → 2018-03-01)
pmi_svc: 55.90 → 59.50 +3.60 (2018-01-05 → 2018-03-05)
policy_rate: 1.50 → 1.75 +0.25 (2018-01-07 → 2018-03-25)
slope_2s10s: 0.51 → 0.54 +0.03 (2018-01-05 → 2018-03-23)
unemployment: 4.10 → 4.10 0.00 (2018-01-05 → 2018-03-09)
yield_10y: 2.47 → 2.82 +0.35 (2018-01-05 → 2018-03-23)
yield_2y: 1.96 → 2.28 +0.32 (2018-01-05 → 2018-03-23)

China

cpi_yoy: 1.70 → 2.90 +1.20 (2017-12-09 → 2018-03-09)
gdp: 6.80 → 6.80 0.00 (2017-10-19 → 2018-01-18)
pmi_mfg: 51.30 → 51.50 +0.20 (2018-01-01 → 2018-03-01)
pmi_svc: 55.00 → 54.40 -0.60 (2017-12-31 → 2018-02-28)
policy_rate: 4.30 → 4.30 0.00 (2018-01-05 → 2018-03-23)
slope_2s10s: 0.29 → 0.30 +0.01 (2018-01-05 → 2018-03-23)
unemployment: 5.00 → 5.10 +0.10 (2018-01-01 → 2018-03-01)
yield_10y: 3.92 → 3.70 -0.22 (2018-01-05 → 2018-03-23)
yield_2y: 3.63 → 3.40 -0.23 (2018-01-05 → 2018-03-23)

Euro area

cpi_yoy: 1.40 → 1.10 -0.30 (2018-01-05 → 2018-03-16)
gdp: 0.10 → 0.20 +0.10 (2017-12-18 → 2018-03-16)
pmi_mfg: 60.60 → 56.60 -4.00 (2018-01-02 → 2018-03-22)
pmi_svc: 56.60 → 55.00 -1.60 (2018-01-04 → 2018-03-22)
policy_rate: 0.00 → 0.00 0.00 (2017-12-14 → 2018-03-08)
unemployment: 8.80 → 8.60 -0.20 (2017-11-30 → 2018-03-01)
yield_10y: 1.03 → 1.17 +0.14 (2018-01-01 → 2018-03-01)

Japan

core_cpi: 0.10 → 0.10 0.00 (2017-12-26 → 2018-03-02)
cpi_yoy: 0.60 → 1.40 +0.80 (2017-12-26 → 2018-03-02)
policy_rate: -0.10 → -0.10 0.00 (2017-12-21 → 2018-03-09)
unemployment: 2.70 → 2.40 -0.30 (2017-12-26 → 2018-03-02)
yield_10y: 0.08 → 0.04 -0.04 (2018-01-01 → 2018-03-01)

Busiest week: 2018-W01 (3 active mechanisms) · Quietest: 2018-W05 (1 active)

Synthesis

(historical period — no Claude narration run)

Decompose