Macro Intelligence · Quarterly board

2018-Q2

Quarterly aggregate · 13 week regimes · drill into children for finer reads

daily glance weekly archive →

Quarterly

2018-Q2 — 13 weeks across 3 months

Dashboard from the materialized period object + the de-blended store. Actuals are deterministic; synthesis (below) is narrated for the current period only.

Headline — where each bloc stands

Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder

Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.

Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion

Indicators — pick a metric, compare blocs · recession shading + crosshair

One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.

Per-region breakdown — 2018-Q2 vs 2018-Q1, with trend

Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper

A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value

B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric

Whole-board snapshot — parallel coordinates · parallel coordinates

Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2018-Q2).

Audit trail — detail tables

📊 Data verdicts · 13 week(s) in period · deterministic, no narration

Standing regime — start → end, per bloc

United States

expansion, at target → overheating / late-cycle

W18: expansion, at target → overheating / late-cycle · W19: overheating / late-cycle → expansion, at target · W22: expansion, at target → overheating / late-cycle

China

overheating / late-cycle → stall-speed, at target

W15: overheating / late-cycle → stall-speed, at target

Euro area

goldilocks / reflation → expansion, at target

W14: goldilocks / reflation → expansion, at target · W18: expansion, at target → goldilocks / reflation · W22: goldilocks / reflation → expansion, at target

Japan

stall-speed, at target → disinflationary stall

W18: stall-speed, at target → disinflationary stall

Mechanisms fired across the period

United States

M5 ×5 growth_acceleration

China

M5 ×4 growth_acceleration

Euro area

M9 ×4 yield_spike

Japan

M1 ×5 inflation_surprise_up
M2 ×5 inflation_surprise_down

Net indicator moves (first refreshed value → last)

United States

core_cpi: 0.14 → 0.20 +0.06 (2018-04-01 → 2018-06-12)
core_pce: 1.88 → 1.94 +0.06 (2018-04-01 → 2018-06-01)
cpi_yoy: 2.47 → 2.80 +0.33 (2018-04-01 → 2018-06-12)
fx: 94.19 → 94.52 +0.33 (2018-05-25 → 2018-06-22)
gdp: 2.10 → 2.20 +0.10 (2018-04-01 → 2018-05-30)
pmi_mfg: 60.70 → 58.70 -2.00 (2018-03-01 → 2018-06-01)
pmi_svc: 59.50 → 58.60 -0.90 (2018-03-05 → 2018-06-05)
policy_rate: 1.75 → 2.00 +0.25 (2018-04-01 → 2018-06-24)
slope_2s10s: 0.47 → 0.34 -0.13 (2018-03-29 → 2018-06-22)
unemployment: 4.00 → 4.00 0.00 (2018-04-01 → 2018-06-01)
yield_10y: 2.74 → 2.90 +0.16 (2018-03-29 → 2018-06-22)
yield_2y: 2.27 → 2.56 +0.29 (2018-03-29 → 2018-06-22)

China

cpi_yoy: 2.90 → 1.80 -1.10 (2018-03-09 → 2018-06-09)
fx: 6.38 → 6.49 +0.12 (2018-05-25 → 2018-06-22)
gdp: 6.80 → 6.80 0.00 (2018-01-18 → 2018-04-17)
pmi_mfg: 51.40 → 51.50 +0.10 (2018-04-01 → 2018-06-01)
pmi_svc: 54.60 → 54.90 +0.30 (2018-03-31 → 2018-05-31)
policy_rate: 4.30 → 4.31 +0.01 (2018-03-30 → 2018-06-22)
slope_2s10s: 0.32 → 0.20 -0.12 (2018-03-30 → 2018-06-22)
unemployment: 4.90 → 4.80 -0.10 (2018-04-01 → 2018-06-01)
yield_10y: 3.74 → 3.56 -0.18 (2018-03-30 → 2018-06-22)
yield_2y: 3.42 → 3.36 -0.06 (2018-03-30 → 2018-06-22)

Euro area

cpi_yoy: 1.10 → 1.90 +0.80 (2018-03-16 → 2018-06-15)
fx: 1.17 → 1.16 -0.01 (2018-05-25 → 2018-06-22)
gdp: 0.20 → 0.50 +0.30 (2018-03-16 → 2018-06-15)
pmi_mfg: 56.60 → 55.00 -1.60 (2018-03-22 → 2018-06-22)
pmi_svc: 55.00 → 55.00 0.00 (2018-03-22 → 2018-06-22)
policy_rate: 0.00 → 0.00 0.00 (2018-03-08 → 2018-06-14)
unemployment: 8.60 → 8.50 -0.10 (2018-03-01 → 2018-05-31)
yield_10y: 1.13 → 1.29 +0.16 (2018-04-01 → 2018-06-01)

Japan

core_cpi: 0.30 → 0.10 -0.20 (2018-03-30 → 2018-06-22)
cpi_yoy: 1.50 → 0.70 -0.80 (2018-03-30 → 2018-06-22)
fx: 109.31 → 109.95 +0.64 (2018-05-25 → 2018-06-22)
policy_rate: -0.10 → -0.10 0.00 (2018-03-09 → 2018-06-15)
unemployment: 2.50 → 2.50 0.00 (2018-03-30 → 2018-05-29)
yield_10y: 0.05 → 0.03 -0.02 (2018-04-01 → 2018-06-01)

Busiest week: 2018-W20 (3 active mechanisms) · Quietest: 2018-W14 (1 active)

Synthesis

(historical period — no Claude narration run)

Decompose