Macro Intelligence · Quarterly board

2018-Q3

Quarterly aggregate · 14 week regimes · drill into children for finer reads

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Quarterly

2018-Q3 — 14 weeks across 3 months

Dashboard from the materialized period object + the de-blended store. Actuals are deterministic; synthesis (below) is narrated for the current period only.

Headline — where each bloc stands

Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder

Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.

Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion

Indicators — pick a metric, compare blocs · recession shading + crosshair

One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.

Per-region breakdown — 2018-Q3 vs 2018-Q2, with trend

Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper

A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value

B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric

Whole-board snapshot — parallel coordinates · parallel coordinates

Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2018-Q3).

Audit trail — detail tables

📊 Data verdicts · 14 week(s) in period · deterministic, no narration

Standing regime — start → end, per bloc

United States

overheating / late-cycle → goldilocks / reflation

W31: overheating / late-cycle → expansion, at target · W32: expansion, at target → overheating / late-cycle · W35: overheating / late-cycle → expansion, at target · W37: expansion, at target → goldilocks / reflation

China

stall-speed, at target · held all period

Euro area

expansion, at target · held all period

Japan

disinflationary stall → stall-speed, at target

W38: disinflationary stall → stall-speed, at target

Mechanisms fired across the period

United States

M5 ×9 growth_acceleration

China

no fires

Euro area

M9 ×4 yield_spike

Japan

M1 ×2 inflation_surprise_up

Net indicator moves (first refreshed value → last)

United States

core_cpi: 0.12 → 0.10 -0.02 (2018-07-01 → 2018-09-13)
core_pce: 2.00 → 2.00 0.00 (2018-07-01 → 2018-09-28)
cpi_yoy: 2.85 → 2.70 -0.15 (2018-07-01 → 2018-09-13)
fx: 94.63 → 95.19 +0.56 (2018-06-29 → 2018-09-28)
gdp: 2.50 → 4.20 +1.70 (2018-07-01 → 2018-09-27)
pmi_mfg: 58.70 → 60.80 +2.10 (2018-06-01 → 2018-09-04)
pmi_svc: 58.60 → 58.50 -0.10 (2018-06-05 → 2018-09-06)
policy_rate: 2.00 → 2.25 +0.25 (2018-07-01 → 2018-09-30)
slope_2s10s: 0.33 → 0.24 -0.09 (2018-06-29 → 2018-09-28)
unemployment: 3.80 → 3.90 +0.10 (2018-07-01 → 2018-09-07)
yield_10y: 2.85 → 3.05 +0.20 (2018-06-29 → 2018-09-28)
yield_2y: 2.52 → 2.81 +0.29 (2018-06-29 → 2018-09-28)

China

cpi_yoy: 1.80 → 2.30 +0.50 (2018-06-09 → 2018-09-10)
fx: 6.63 → 6.88 +0.25 (2018-06-29 → 2018-09-28)
gdp: 6.80 → 6.70 -0.10 (2018-04-17 → 2018-07-16)
pmi_mfg: 51.20 → 50.80 -0.40 (2018-07-01 → 2018-09-01)
pmi_svc: 55.00 → 54.90 -0.10 (2018-06-30 → 2018-09-30)
policy_rate: 4.31 → 4.31 0.00 (2018-06-29 → 2018-09-30)
slope_2s10s: 0.22 → 0.47 +0.25 (2018-06-29 → 2018-09-30)
unemployment: 5.10 → 4.90 -0.20 (2018-07-01 → 2018-09-01)
yield_10y: 3.48 → 3.61 +0.13 (2018-06-29 → 2018-09-30)
yield_2y: 3.26 → 3.14 -0.12 (2018-06-29 → 2018-09-30)

Euro area

cpi_yoy: 2.00 → 2.10 +0.10 (2018-06-29 → 2018-09-28)
fx: 1.16 → 1.16 +0.01 (2018-06-29 → 2018-09-28)
gdp: 0.50 → 0.20 -0.30 (2018-06-15 → 2018-09-17)
pmi_mfg: 55.00 → 53.30 -1.70 (2018-06-22 → 2018-09-21)
pmi_svc: 55.00 → 54.70 -0.30 (2018-06-22 → 2018-09-21)
policy_rate: 0.00 → 0.00 0.00 (2018-06-14 → 2018-09-13)
unemployment: 8.50 → 8.20 -0.30 (2018-05-31 → 2018-08-31)
yield_10y: 1.20 → 1.32 +0.12 (2018-07-01 → 2018-09-01)

Japan

core_cpi: 0.10 → 0.20 +0.10 (2018-06-22 → 2018-09-21)
cpi_yoy: 0.70 → 1.30 +0.60 (2018-06-22 → 2018-09-21)
fx: 110.49 → 113.36 +2.87 (2018-06-29 → 2018-09-28)
policy_rate: -0.10 → -0.10 0.00 (2018-06-15 → 2018-09-19)
unemployment: 2.20 → 2.40 +0.20 (2018-06-29 → 2018-09-28)
yield_10y: 0.06 → 0.12 +0.07 (2018-07-01 → 2018-09-01)

Busiest week: 2018-W38 (2 active mechanisms) · Quietest: 2018-W35 (0 active)

Synthesis

(historical period — no Claude narration run)

Decompose