Macro Intelligence · Quarterly board

2018-Q4

Quarterly aggregate · 13 week regimes · drill into children for finer reads

daily glance weekly archive →

Quarterly

2018-Q4 — 13 weeks across 3 months

Dashboard from the materialized period object + the de-blended store. Actuals are deterministic; synthesis (below) is narrated for the current period only.

Headline — where each bloc stands

Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder

Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.

Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion

Indicators — pick a metric, compare blocs · recession shading + crosshair

One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.

Per-region breakdown — 2018-Q4 vs 2018-Q3, with trend

Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper

A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value

B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric

Whole-board snapshot — parallel coordinates · parallel coordinates

Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2018-Q4).

Audit trail — detail tables

📊 Data verdicts · 13 week(s) in period · deterministic, no narration

Standing regime — start → end, per bloc

United States

expansion, at target · held all period

China

stall-speed, at target · held all period

Euro area

expansion, at target → stall-speed, at target

W47: expansion, at target → stall-speed, at target

Japan

stall-speed, at target → disinflationary stall

W42: stall-speed, at target → disinflationary stall · W47: disinflationary stall → stall-speed, at target · W51: stall-speed, at target → disinflationary stall

Mechanisms fired across the period

United States

M5 ×4 growth_acceleration

China

M6 ×5 growth_slowdown

Euro area

M9 ×4 yield_spike

Japan

M1 ×2 inflation_surprise_up

Net indicator moves (first refreshed value → last)

United States

core_cpi: 0.21 → 0.20 -0.01 (2018-10-01 → 2018-12-12)
core_pce: 1.87 → 1.90 +0.03 (2018-10-01 → 2018-12-21)
cpi_yoy: 2.49 → 2.20 -0.29 (2018-10-01 → 2018-12-12)
fx: 95.62 → 96.39 +0.77 (2018-10-05 → 2018-12-28)
gdp: 0.60 → 3.40 +2.80 (2018-10-01 → 2018-12-21)
pmi_mfg: 59.50 → 58.80 -0.70 (2018-10-01 → 2018-12-03)
pmi_svc: 61.60 → 60.70 -0.90 (2018-10-03 → 2018-12-06)
policy_rate: 2.25 → 2.50 +0.25 (2018-10-07 → 2018-12-30)
slope_2s10s: 0.35 → 0.20 -0.15 (2018-10-05 → 2018-12-28)
unemployment: 3.70 → 3.70 0.00 (2018-10-05 → 2018-12-07)
yield_10y: 3.23 → 2.72 -0.51 (2018-10-05 → 2018-12-28)
yield_2y: 2.88 → 2.52 -0.36 (2018-10-05 → 2018-12-28)

China

cpi_yoy: 2.30 → 2.20 -0.10 (2018-09-10 → 2018-12-09)
fx: 6.87 → 6.87 -0.00 (2018-10-05 → 2018-12-28)
gdp: 6.70 → 6.50 -0.20 (2018-07-16 → 2018-10-19)
pmi_mfg: 50.20 → 49.40 -0.80 (2018-10-01 → 2018-12-01)
pmi_svc: 54.90 → 53.40 -1.50 (2018-09-30 → 2018-11-30)
policy_rate: 4.31 → 4.31 0.00 (2018-09-30 → 2018-12-29)
slope_2s10s: 0.47 → 0.52 +0.05 (2018-09-30 → 2018-12-30)
unemployment: 4.90 → 4.90 0.00 (2018-10-01 → 2018-12-01)
yield_10y: 3.61 → 3.23 -0.38 (2018-09-30 → 2018-12-30)
yield_2y: 3.14 → 2.71 -0.43 (2018-09-30 → 2018-12-30)

Euro area

cpi_yoy: 2.10 → 1.90 -0.20 (2018-09-28 → 2018-12-17)
fx: 1.15 → 1.14 -0.01 (2018-10-05 → 2018-12-28)
gdp: 0.20 → -0.20 -0.40 (2018-09-17 → 2018-12-17)
pmi_mfg: 53.20 → 51.40 -1.80 (2018-10-01 → 2018-12-14)
pmi_svc: 54.70 → 51.40 -3.30 (2018-10-03 → 2018-12-14)
policy_rate: 0.00 → 0.00 0.00 (2018-09-13 → 2018-12-13)
unemployment: 8.10 → 8.10 0.00 (2018-10-01 → 2018-11-30)
yield_10y: 1.55 → 1.21 -0.34 (2018-10-01 → 2018-12-01)

Japan

core_cpi: 0.20 → 0.10 -0.10 (2018-09-21 → 2018-12-21)
cpi_yoy: 1.30 → 0.80 -0.50 (2018-09-21 → 2018-12-21)
fx: 113.89 → 110.86 -3.04 (2018-10-05 → 2018-12-28)
policy_rate: -0.10 → -0.10 0.00 (2018-09-19 → 2018-12-20)
unemployment: 2.40 → 2.50 +0.10 (2018-09-28 → 2018-12-28)
yield_10y: 0.13 → -0.01 -0.14 (2018-10-01 → 2018-12-01)

Busiest week: 2018-W40 (2 active mechanisms) · Quietest: 2018-W44 (0 active)

Synthesis

(historical period — no Claude narration run)

Decompose