Macro Intelligence · Yearly board

2017

Yearly aggregate · 53 week regimes · drill into children for finer reads

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Yearly

2017 — 53 weeks across 4 quarters

Dashboard from the materialized period object + the de-blended store. Actuals are deterministic; synthesis (below) is narrated for the current period only.

Headline — where each bloc stands

Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder

Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.

Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion

Indicators — pick a metric, compare blocs · recession shading + crosshair

One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.

Per-region breakdown — 2017 vs 2016, with trend

Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper

A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value

B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric

Whole-board snapshot — parallel coordinates · parallel coordinates

Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2017).

Audit trail — detail tables

📊 Data verdicts · 53 week(s) in period · deterministic, no narration

Standing regime — start → end, per bloc

United States

expansion, at target · held all period

China

stall-speed, at target · held all period

Euro area

goldilocks / reflation → expansion, at target

W05: goldilocks / reflation → expansion, at target

Japan

disinflationary stall · held all period

Mechanisms fired across the period

United States

M5 ×27 growth_acceleration
M2 ×5 inflation_surprise_down
M1 ×2 inflation_surprise_up

China

M5 ×16 growth_acceleration
M10 ×2 curve_inversion

Euro area

M5 ×13 growth_acceleration
M9 ×9 yield_spike

Japan

M2 ×8 inflation_surprise_down

Net indicator moves (first refreshed value → last)

United States

core_cpi: 0.22 → 0.10 -0.12 (2017-01-01 → 2017-12-13)
core_pce: 1.86 → 1.50 -0.36 (2017-01-01 → 2017-12-22)
cpi_yoy: 2.51 → 2.20 -0.31 (2017-01-01 → 2017-12-13)
gdp: 2.00 → 3.20 +1.20 (2017-01-01 → 2017-12-21)
pmi_mfg: 53.20 → 58.20 +5.00 (2016-12-01 → 2017-12-01)
pmi_svc: 57.20 → 57.40 +0.20 (2016-12-05 → 2017-12-05)
policy_rate: 0.75 → 1.50 +0.75 (2017-01-01 → 2017-12-31)
slope_2s10s: 1.25 → 0.51 -0.74 (2016-12-30 → 2017-12-29)
unemployment: 4.70 → 4.10 -0.60 (2017-01-01 → 2017-12-08)
yield_10y: 2.45 → 2.40 -0.05 (2016-12-30 → 2017-12-29)
yield_2y: 1.20 → 1.89 +0.69 (2016-12-30 → 2017-12-29)

China

cpi_yoy: 2.30 → 1.70 -0.60 (2016-12-09 → 2017-12-09)
gdp: 6.70 → 6.80 +0.10 (2016-10-19 → 2017-10-19)
pmi_mfg: 51.30 → 51.60 +0.30 (2017-01-01 → 2017-12-01)
pmi_svc: 54.50 → 55.00 +0.50 (2017-01-01 → 2017-12-31)
policy_rate: 4.30 → 4.30 0.00 (2016-12-30 → 2017-12-29)
slope_2s10s: 0.31 → 0.10 -0.22 (2016-12-31 → 2017-12-31)
yield_10y: 3.01 → 3.88 +0.87 (2016-12-31 → 2017-12-31)
yield_2y: 2.70 → 3.79 +1.08 (2016-12-31 → 2017-12-31)

Euro area

cpi_yoy: 0.60 → 1.50 +0.90 (2016-12-16 → 2017-12-18)
gdp: -0.10 → 0.10 +0.20 (2016-12-16 → 2017-12-18)
pmi_mfg: 54.90 → 60.60 +5.70 (2016-12-15 → 2017-12-14)
pmi_svc: 53.10 → 56.50 +3.40 (2016-12-15 → 2017-12-14)
policy_rate: 0.00 → 0.00 0.00 (2016-12-08 → 2017-12-14)
unemployment: 9.80 → 8.80 -1.00 (2016-12-01 → 2017-11-30)
yield_10y: 1.31 → 0.88 -0.43 (2017-01-01 → 2017-12-01)

Japan

core_cpi: 0.10 → 0.10 0.00 (2016-12-27 → 2017-12-26)
cpi_yoy: 0.50 → 0.60 +0.10 (2016-12-27 → 2017-12-26)
policy_rate: -0.10 → -0.10 0.00 (2016-12-20 → 2017-12-21)
unemployment: 3.10 → 2.70 -0.40 (2016-12-27 → 2017-12-26)
yield_10y: 0.09 → 0.04 -0.04 (2017-01-01 → 2017-12-01)

Busiest week: 2017-W05 (3 active mechanisms) · Quietest: 2017-W21 (0 active)

Synthesis

(historical period — no Claude narration run)

Decompose

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