Macro Intelligence · Quarterly board

2017-Q3

Quarterly aggregate · 13 week regimes · drill into children for finer reads

Quarterly

2017-Q3 — 13 weeks across 3 months

Dashboard from the materialized period object + the de-blended store. Actuals are deterministic; synthesis (below) is narrated for the current period only.

Headline — where each bloc stands

Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder

Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.

Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion

Indicators — pick a metric, compare blocs · recession shading + crosshair

One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.

Per-region breakdown — 2017-Q3 vs 2017-Q2, with trend

Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper

A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value

B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric

Whole-board snapshot — parallel coordinates · parallel coordinates

Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2017-Q3).

Audit trail — detail tables

📊 Data verdicts · 13 week(s) in period · deterministic, no narration

Standing regime — start → end, per bloc

United States

expansion, at target · held all period

China

stall-speed, at target → expansion, at target

W35: stall-speed, at target → expansion, at target

Euro area

expansion, at target · held all period

Japan

deflation watch · held all period

Mechanisms fired across the period

United States

M5 ×8 growth_acceleration

China

M5 ×8 growth_acceleration

Euro area

M9 ×5 yield_spike
M5 ×2 growth_acceleration

Japan

no fires

Net indicator moves (first refreshed value → last)

United States

core_cpi: 0.09 → 0.20 +0.11 (2017-07-01 → 2017-09-14)
core_pce: 1.50 → 1.42 -0.08 (2017-07-01 → 2017-09-01)
cpi_yoy: 1.73 → 1.90 +0.17 (2017-07-01 → 2017-09-14)
gdp: 3.20 → 3.00 -0.20 (2017-07-01 → 2017-08-30)
pmi_mfg: 54.90 → 58.80 +3.90 (2017-06-01 → 2017-09-01)
pmi_svc: 56.90 → 55.30 -1.60 (2017-06-05 → 2017-09-06)
policy_rate: 1.25 → 1.25 0.00 (2017-07-02 → 2017-09-24)
slope_2s10s: 0.93 → 0.80 -0.13 (2017-06-30 → 2017-09-22)
unemployment: 4.30 → 4.30 0.00 (2017-07-01 → 2017-09-01)
yield_10y: 2.31 → 2.26 -0.05 (2017-06-30 → 2017-09-22)
yield_2y: 1.38 → 1.46 +0.08 (2017-06-30 → 2017-09-22)

China

cpi_yoy: 1.50 → 1.80 +0.30 (2017-06-09 → 2017-09-09)
gdp: 6.90 → 6.90 0.00 (2017-04-17 → 2017-07-17)
pmi_mfg: 51.40 → 52.40 +1.00 (2017-07-01 → 2017-09-01)
pmi_svc: 54.90 → 53.40 -1.50 (2017-06-30 → 2017-08-31)
policy_rate: 4.30 → 4.30 0.00 (2017-06-30 → 2017-09-22)
slope_2s10s: 0.07 → 0.07 -0.00 (2017-06-30 → 2017-09-22)
yield_10y: 3.57 → 3.62 +0.05 (2017-06-30 → 2017-09-22)
yield_2y: 3.49 → 3.55 +0.05 (2017-06-30 → 2017-09-22)

Euro area

cpi_yoy: 1.30 → 1.50 +0.20 (2017-06-30 → 2017-09-18)
gdp: -0.10 → 0.30 +0.40 (2017-06-16 → 2017-09-18)
pmi_mfg: 57.30 → 58.20 +0.90 (2017-06-23 → 2017-09-22)
pmi_svc: 54.70 → 55.60 +0.90 (2017-06-23 → 2017-09-22)
policy_rate: 0.00 → 0.00 0.00 (2017-06-08 → 2017-09-07)
unemployment: 9.30 → 9.10 -0.20 (2017-05-31 → 2017-08-31)
yield_10y: 1.21 → 1.12 -0.09 (2017-07-01 → 2017-09-01)

Japan

core_cpi: -0.20 → -0.10 +0.10 (2017-06-30 → 2017-08-25)
cpi_yoy: 0.40 → 0.40 0.00 (2017-06-30 → 2017-08-25)
policy_rate: -0.10 → -0.10 0.00 (2017-06-16 → 2017-09-21)
unemployment: 3.10 → 2.80 -0.30 (2017-06-30 → 2017-08-29)
yield_10y: 0.07 → 0.06 -0.01 (2017-07-01 → 2017-09-01)

Busiest week: 2017-W38 (3 active mechanisms) · Quietest: 2017-W26 (1 active)

Synthesis

(historical period — no Claude narration run)

Decompose