Macro Intelligence · Quarterly board

2017-Q1

Quarterly aggregate · 13 week regimes · drill into children for finer reads

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Quarterly

2017-Q1 — 13 weeks across 3 months

Dashboard from the materialized period object + the de-blended store. Actuals are deterministic; synthesis (below) is narrated for the current period only.

Headline — where each bloc stands

Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder

Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.

Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion

Indicators — pick a metric, compare blocs · recession shading + crosshair

One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.

Per-region breakdown — 2017-Q1 vs 2016-Q4, with trend

Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper

A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value
B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric

Whole-board snapshot — parallel coordinates · parallel coordinates

Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2017-Q1).

Audit trail — detail tables
📊 Data verdicts · 13 week(s) in period · deterministic, no narration

Standing regime — start → end, per bloc

United States
expansion, at target → goldilocks / reflation
W05: expansion, at target → overheating / late-cycle · W07: overheating / late-cycle → expansion, at target · W11: expansion, at target → goldilocks / reflation
China
stall-speed, at target → disinflationary stall
W10: stall-speed, at target → disinflationary stall
Euro area
goldilocks / reflation → expansion, at target
W05: goldilocks / reflation → expansion, at target
Japan
disinflationary stall → deflation watch
W04: disinflationary stall → deflation watch

Mechanisms fired across the period

United States
  • M5 ×13 growth_acceleration
  • M2 ×2 inflation_surprise_down
  • M1 ×2 inflation_surprise_up
China
  • M5 ×4 growth_acceleration
Euro area
  • M9 ×4 yield_spike
  • M5 ×2 growth_acceleration
Japan
no fires

Net indicator moves (first refreshed value → last)

United States
  • core_cpi: 0.22 → 0.20 -0.02 (2017-01-01 → 2017-03-15)
  • core_pce: 1.86 → 1.68 -0.18 (2017-01-01 → 2017-03-01)
  • cpi_yoy: 2.51 → 2.70 +0.19 (2017-01-01 → 2017-03-15)
  • gdp: 2.00 → 1.90 -0.10 (2017-01-01 → 2017-02-28)
  • pmi_mfg: 53.20 → 57.70 +4.50 (2016-12-01 → 2017-03-01)
  • pmi_svc: 57.20 → 57.60 +0.40 (2016-12-05 → 2017-03-03)
  • policy_rate: 0.75 → 1.00 +0.25 (2017-01-01 → 2017-03-26)
  • slope_2s10s: 1.25 → 1.14 -0.11 (2016-12-30 → 2017-03-24)
  • unemployment: 4.70 → 4.70 0.00 (2017-01-01 → 2017-03-10)
  • yield_10y: 2.45 → 2.40 -0.05 (2016-12-30 → 2017-03-24)
  • yield_2y: 1.20 → 1.26 +0.06 (2016-12-30 → 2017-03-24)
China
  • cpi_yoy: 2.30 → 0.80 -1.50 (2016-12-09 → 2017-03-09)
  • gdp: 6.70 → 6.80 +0.10 (2016-10-19 → 2017-01-20)
  • pmi_mfg: 51.30 → 51.80 +0.50 (2017-01-01 → 2017-03-01)
  • pmi_svc: 54.50 → 54.20 -0.30 (2017-01-01 → 2017-03-01)
  • policy_rate: 4.30 → 4.30 0.00 (2016-12-30 → 2017-03-24)
  • slope_2s10s: 0.31 → 0.30 -0.01 (2016-12-31 → 2017-03-24)
  • yield_10y: 3.01 → 3.25 +0.24 (2016-12-31 → 2017-03-24)
  • yield_2y: 2.70 → 2.95 +0.25 (2016-12-31 → 2017-03-24)
Euro area
  • cpi_yoy: 0.60 → 2.00 +1.40 (2016-12-16 → 2017-03-16)
  • gdp: -0.10 → 0.40 +0.50 (2016-12-16 → 2017-03-16)
  • pmi_mfg: 54.90 → 56.20 +1.30 (2016-12-15 → 2017-03-24)
  • pmi_svc: 53.10 → 56.50 +3.40 (2016-12-15 → 2017-03-24)
  • policy_rate: 0.00 → 0.00 0.00 (2016-12-08 → 2017-03-09)
  • unemployment: 9.80 → 9.60 -0.20 (2016-12-01 → 2017-03-02)
  • yield_10y: 1.31 → 1.45 +0.15 (2017-01-01 → 2017-03-01)
Japan
  • core_cpi: 0.10 → 0.10 0.00 (2016-12-27 → 2017-03-03)
  • cpi_yoy: 0.50 → 0.40 -0.10 (2016-12-27 → 2017-03-03)
  • policy_rate: -0.10 → -0.10 0.00 (2016-12-20 → 2017-03-16)
  • unemployment: 3.10 → 3.00 -0.10 (2016-12-27 → 2017-03-03)
  • yield_10y: 0.09 → 0.07 -0.02 (2017-01-01 → 2017-03-01)

Busiest week: 2017-W05 (3 active mechanisms) · Quietest: 2017-W01 (1 active)

Synthesis

(historical period — no Claude narration run)

Decompose

2017-01
monthly board
2017-02
monthly board
2017-03
monthly board