Macro Intelligence · Quarterly board

2017-Q2

Quarterly aggregate · 13 week regimes · drill into children for finer reads

Quarterly

2017-Q2 — 13 weeks across 3 months

Dashboard from the materialized period object + the de-blended store. Actuals are deterministic; synthesis (below) is narrated for the current period only.

Headline — where each bloc stands

Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder

Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.

Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion

Indicators — pick a metric, compare blocs · recession shading + crosshair

One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.

Per-region breakdown — 2017-Q2 vs 2017-Q1, with trend

Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper

A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value

B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric

Whole-board snapshot — parallel coordinates · parallel coordinates

Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2017-Q2).

Audit trail — detail tables

📊 Data verdicts · 13 week(s) in period · deterministic, no narration

Standing regime — start → end, per bloc

United States

expansion, at target · held all period

China

disinflationary stall → stall-speed, at target

W23: disinflationary stall → stall-speed, at target

Euro area

expansion, at target · held all period

Japan

deflation watch · held all period

Mechanisms fired across the period

United States

M2 ×3 inflation_surprise_down
M5 ×1 growth_acceleration

China

M5 ×4 growth_acceleration
M10 ×2 curve_inversion

Euro area

M5 ×3 growth_acceleration

Japan

M2 ×8 inflation_surprise_down

Net indicator moves (first refreshed value → last)

United States

core_cpi: 0.11 → 0.10 -0.01 (2017-04-01 → 2017-06-14)
core_pce: 1.64 → 1.58 -0.06 (2017-04-01 → 2017-06-01)
cpi_yoy: 2.18 → 1.90 -0.28 (2017-04-01 → 2017-06-14)
gdp: 2.30 → 1.20 -1.10 (2017-04-01 → 2017-05-26)
pmi_mfg: 57.70 → 54.90 -2.80 (2017-03-01 → 2017-06-01)
pmi_svc: 57.60 → 56.90 -0.70 (2017-03-03 → 2017-06-05)
policy_rate: 1.00 → 1.25 +0.25 (2017-04-02 → 2017-06-25)
slope_2s10s: 1.13 → 0.81 -0.32 (2017-03-31 → 2017-06-23)
unemployment: 4.40 → 4.30 -0.10 (2017-04-01 → 2017-06-02)
yield_10y: 2.40 → 2.15 -0.25 (2017-03-31 → 2017-06-23)
yield_2y: 1.27 → 1.34 +0.07 (2017-03-31 → 2017-06-23)

China

cpi_yoy: 0.80 → 1.50 +0.70 (2017-03-09 → 2017-06-09)
gdp: 6.80 → 6.90 +0.10 (2017-01-20 → 2017-04-17)
pmi_mfg: 51.20 → 51.70 +0.50 (2017-04-01 → 2017-06-01)
pmi_svc: 55.10 → 54.50 -0.60 (2017-03-31 → 2017-05-31)
policy_rate: 4.30 → 4.30 0.00 (2017-04-01 → 2017-06-23)
slope_2s10s: 0.32 → 0.01 -0.31 (2017-04-01 → 2017-06-23)
yield_10y: 3.27 → 3.55 +0.27 (2017-04-01 → 2017-06-23)
yield_2y: 2.95 → 3.53 +0.58 (2017-04-01 → 2017-06-23)

Euro area

cpi_yoy: 1.50 → 1.40 -0.10 (2017-03-31 → 2017-06-16)
gdp: 0.40 → -0.10 -0.50 (2017-03-16 → 2017-06-16)
pmi_mfg: 56.20 → 57.30 +1.10 (2017-03-24 → 2017-06-23)
pmi_svc: 56.50 → 54.70 -1.80 (2017-03-24 → 2017-06-23)
policy_rate: 0.00 → 0.00 0.00 (2017-03-09 → 2017-06-08)
unemployment: 9.60 → 9.30 -0.30 (2017-03-02 → 2017-05-31)
yield_10y: 1.26 → 1.07 -0.19 (2017-04-01 → 2017-06-01)

Japan

core_cpi: -0.10 → -0.30 -0.20 (2017-03-31 → 2017-05-26)
cpi_yoy: 0.30 → 0.40 +0.10 (2017-03-31 → 2017-05-26)
policy_rate: -0.10 → -0.10 0.00 (2017-03-16 → 2017-06-16)
unemployment: 2.80 → 2.80 0.00 (2017-03-31 → 2017-05-30)
yield_10y: 0.01 → 0.07 +0.06 (2017-04-01 → 2017-06-01)

Busiest week: 2017-W13 (3 active mechanisms) · Quietest: 2017-W21 (0 active)

Synthesis

(historical period — no Claude narration run)

Decompose