Macro Intelligence · Quarterly board

2017-Q4

Quarterly aggregate · 14 week regimes · drill into children for finer reads

daily glanceweekly archive →
Quarterly

2017-Q4 — 14 weeks across 3 months

Dashboard from the materialized period object + the de-blended store. Actuals are deterministic; synthesis (below) is narrated for the current period only.

Headline — where each bloc stands

Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder

Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.

Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion

Indicators — pick a metric, compare blocs · recession shading + crosshair

One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.

Per-region breakdown — 2017-Q4 vs 2017-Q3, with trend

Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper

A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value
B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric

Whole-board snapshot — parallel coordinates · parallel coordinates

Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2017-Q4).

Audit trail — detail tables
📊 Data verdicts · 14 week(s) in period · deterministic, no narration

Standing regime — start → end, per bloc

United States
expansion, at target · held all period
China
stall-speed, at target · held all period
Euro area
expansion, at target · held all period
Japan
disinflationary stall · held all period

Mechanisms fired across the period

United States
  • M5 ×5 growth_acceleration
China
no fires
Euro area
  • M5 ×6 growth_acceleration
Japan
no fires

Net indicator moves (first refreshed value → last)

United States
  • core_cpi: 0.28 → 0.10 -0.18 (2017-10-01 → 2017-12-13)
  • core_pce: 1.54 → 1.50 -0.04 (2017-10-01 → 2017-12-22)
  • cpi_yoy: 2.02 → 2.20 +0.18 (2017-10-01 → 2017-12-13)
  • gdp: 4.60 → 3.20 -1.40 (2017-10-01 → 2017-12-21)
  • pmi_mfg: 58.80 → 58.20 -0.60 (2017-09-01 → 2017-12-01)
  • pmi_svc: 55.30 → 57.40 +2.10 (2017-09-06 → 2017-12-05)
  • policy_rate: 1.25 → 1.50 +0.25 (2017-10-01 → 2017-12-31)
  • slope_2s10s: 0.86 → 0.51 -0.35 (2017-09-29 → 2017-12-29)
  • unemployment: 4.20 → 4.10 -0.10 (2017-10-01 → 2017-12-08)
  • yield_10y: 2.33 → 2.40 +0.07 (2017-09-29 → 2017-12-29)
  • yield_2y: 1.47 → 1.89 +0.42 (2017-09-29 → 2017-12-29)
China
  • cpi_yoy: 1.80 → 1.70 -0.10 (2017-09-09 → 2017-12-09)
  • gdp: 6.90 → 6.80 -0.10 (2017-07-17 → 2017-10-19)
  • pmi_mfg: 51.60 → 51.60 0.00 (2017-10-01 → 2017-12-01)
  • pmi_svc: 55.40 → 55.00 -0.40 (2017-09-30 → 2017-12-31)
  • policy_rate: 4.30 → 4.30 0.00 (2017-09-30 → 2017-12-29)
  • slope_2s10s: 0.08 → 0.10 +0.02 (2017-09-30 → 2017-12-31)
  • yield_10y: 3.61 → 3.88 +0.27 (2017-09-30 → 2017-12-31)
  • yield_2y: 3.54 → 3.79 +0.25 (2017-09-30 → 2017-12-31)
Euro area
  • cpi_yoy: 1.50 → 1.50 0.00 (2017-09-29 → 2017-12-18)
  • gdp: 0.30 → 0.10 -0.20 (2017-09-18 → 2017-12-18)
  • pmi_mfg: 58.20 → 60.60 +2.40 (2017-09-22 → 2017-12-14)
  • pmi_svc: 55.60 → 56.50 +0.90 (2017-09-22 → 2017-12-14)
  • policy_rate: 0.00 → 0.00 0.00 (2017-09-07 → 2017-12-14)
  • unemployment: 9.10 → 8.80 -0.30 (2017-08-31 → 2017-11-30)
  • yield_10y: 1.15 → 0.88 -0.27 (2017-10-01 → 2017-12-01)
Japan
  • core_cpi: 0.00 → 0.10 +0.10 (2017-09-29 → 2017-12-26)
  • cpi_yoy: 0.70 → 0.60 -0.10 (2017-09-29 → 2017-12-26)
  • policy_rate: -0.10 → -0.10 0.00 (2017-09-21 → 2017-12-21)
  • unemployment: 2.80 → 2.70 -0.10 (2017-09-29 → 2017-12-26)
  • yield_10y: 0.07 → 0.04 -0.02 (2017-10-01 → 2017-12-01)

Busiest week: 2017-W39 (2 active mechanisms) · Quietest: 2017-W44 (0 active)

Synthesis

(historical period — no Claude narration run)

Decompose

2017-10
monthly board
2017-11
monthly board
2017-12
monthly board