Macro Intelligence · Yearly board

2015

Yearly aggregate · 52 week regimes · drill into children for finer reads

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Yearly

2015 — 52 weeks across 4 quarters

Dashboard from the materialized period object + the de-blended store. Actuals are deterministic; synthesis (below) is narrated for the current period only.

Headline — where each bloc stands

Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder

Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.

Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion

Indicators — pick a metric, compare blocs · recession shading + crosshair

One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.

Per-region breakdown — 2015 vs 2014, with trend

Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper

A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value

B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric

Whole-board snapshot — parallel coordinates · parallel coordinates

Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2015).

Audit trail — detail tables

📊 Data verdicts · 52 week(s) in period · deterministic, no narration

Standing regime — start → end, per bloc

United States

goldilocks / reflation → disinflationary stall

W14: goldilocks / reflation → deflation watch · W23: deflation watch → goldilocks / reflation · W36: goldilocks / reflation → deflation watch · W49: deflation watch → disinflationary stall

China

stall-speed, at target · held all period

Euro area

deflation watch → goldilocks / reflation

W14: deflation watch → goldilocks / reflation · W17: goldilocks / reflation → deflation watch · W19: deflation watch → goldilocks / reflation

Japan

stall-speed, at target → deflation watch

W22: stall-speed, at target → disinflationary stall · W31: disinflationary stall → deflation watch

Mechanisms fired across the period

United States

M5 ×9 growth_acceleration
M9 ×4 yield_spike
M6 ×4 growth_slowdown

China

M6 ×4 growth_slowdown

Euro area

M5 ×9 growth_acceleration
M9 ×9 yield_spike

Japan

M1 ×10 inflation_surprise_up
M2 ×8 inflation_surprise_down

Net indicator moves (first refreshed value → last)

United States

core_cpi: 0.09 → 0.20 +0.11 (2015-01-01 → 2015-12-15)
core_pce: 1.21 → 1.30 +0.09 (2015-01-01 → 2015-12-23)
cpi_yoy: -0.23 → 0.50 +0.73 (2015-01-01 → 2015-12-15)
gdp: 3.60 → 2.00 -1.60 (2015-01-01 → 2015-12-22)
pmi_mfg: 55.50 → 48.60 -6.90 (2015-01-02 → 2015-12-01)
pmi_svc: 59.30 → 55.90 -3.40 (2014-12-03 → 2015-12-03)
policy_rate: 0.25 → 0.50 +0.25 (2015-01-04 → 2015-12-27)
slope_2s10s: 1.46 → 1.22 -0.24 (2015-01-02 → 2015-12-24)
unemployment: 5.70 → 5.00 -0.70 (2015-01-01 → 2015-12-04)
yield_10y: 2.12 → 2.25 +0.13 (2015-01-02 → 2015-12-24)
yield_2y: 0.66 → 1.03 +0.37 (2015-01-02 → 2015-12-24)

China

cpi_yoy: 1.40 → 1.50 +0.10 (2014-12-10 → 2015-12-09)
gdp: 7.30 → 6.90 -0.40 (2014-10-21 → 2015-10-19)
pmi_mfg: 49.80 → 49.70 -0.10 (2015-01-01 → 2015-12-01)
pmi_svc: 54.10 → 53.60 -0.50 (2015-01-01 → 2015-12-01)
policy_rate: 5.51 → 4.30 -1.21 (2015-01-04 → 2015-12-25)
slope_2s10s: 0.31 → 0.37 +0.06 (2015-01-04 → 2015-12-25)
yield_10y: 3.63 → 2.81 -0.82 (2015-01-04 → 2015-12-25)
yield_2y: 3.31 → 2.44 -0.88 (2015-01-04 → 2015-12-25)

Euro area

cpi_yoy: 0.30 → 0.20 -0.10 (2014-12-17 → 2015-12-16)
gdp: -0.20 → -0.10 +0.10 (2014-12-17 → 2015-12-16)
pmi_mfg: 50.60 → 53.10 +2.50 (2015-01-02 → 2015-12-16)
pmi_svc: 51.90 → 53.90 +2.00 (2014-12-16 → 2015-12-16)
policy_rate: 0.05 → 0.05 0.00 (2014-12-04 → 2015-12-03)
unemployment: 11.50 → 10.70 -0.80 (2014-11-28 → 2015-12-01)
yield_10y: 1.27 → 1.19 -0.07 (2015-01-01 → 2015-12-01)

Japan

core_cpi: 2.10 → 0.90 -1.20 (2014-12-26 → 2015-12-25)
cpi_yoy: 2.40 → 0.30 -2.10 (2014-12-26 → 2015-12-25)
policy_rate: 0.10 → 0.10 0.00 (2014-12-19 → 2015-12-18)
unemployment: 3.50 → 3.30 -0.20 (2014-12-30 → 2015-12-25)
yield_10y: 0.28 → 0.27 -0.01 (2015-01-01 → 2015-12-01)

Busiest week: 2015-W23 (4 active mechanisms) · Quietest: 2015-W07 (0 active)

Synthesis

(historical period — no Claude narration run)

Decompose

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