Macro Intelligence · Quarterly board

2015-Q4

Quarterly aggregate · 13 week regimes · drill into children for finer reads

Quarterly

2015-Q4 — 13 weeks across 3 months

Dashboard from the materialized period object + the de-blended store. Actuals are deterministic; synthesis (below) is narrated for the current period only.

Headline — where each bloc stands

Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder

Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.

Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion

Indicators — pick a metric, compare blocs · recession shading + crosshair

One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.

Per-region breakdown — 2015-Q4 vs 2015-Q3, with trend

Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper

A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value

B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric

Whole-board snapshot — parallel coordinates · parallel coordinates

Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2015-Q4).

Audit trail — detail tables

📊 Data verdicts · 13 week(s) in period · deterministic, no narration

Standing regime — start → end, per bloc

United States

deflation watch → disinflationary stall

W49: deflation watch → disinflationary stall

China

stall-speed, at target · held all period

Euro area

goldilocks / reflation · held all period

Japan

deflation watch · held all period

Mechanisms fired across the period

United States

M6 ×4 growth_slowdown

China

no fires

Euro area

M5 ×3 growth_acceleration

Japan

M1 ×5 inflation_surprise_up
M2 ×4 inflation_surprise_down

Net indicator moves (first refreshed value → last)

United States

core_cpi: 0.19 → 0.20 +0.01 (2015-10-01 → 2015-12-15)
core_pce: 1.18 → 1.30 +0.12 (2015-10-01 → 2015-12-23)
cpi_yoy: 0.13 → 0.50 +0.37 (2015-10-01 → 2015-12-15)
gdp: 0.70 → 2.00 +1.30 (2015-10-01 → 2015-12-22)
pmi_mfg: 50.20 → 48.60 -1.60 (2015-10-01 → 2015-12-01)
pmi_svc: 59.00 → 55.90 -3.10 (2015-09-03 → 2015-12-03)
policy_rate: 0.25 → 0.50 +0.25 (2015-10-04 → 2015-12-27)
slope_2s10s: 1.41 → 1.22 -0.19 (2015-10-02 → 2015-12-24)
unemployment: 5.10 → 5.00 -0.10 (2015-10-02 → 2015-12-04)
yield_10y: 1.99 → 2.25 +0.26 (2015-10-02 → 2015-12-24)
yield_2y: 0.58 → 1.03 +0.45 (2015-10-02 → 2015-12-24)

China

cpi_yoy: 2.00 → 1.50 -0.50 (2015-09-10 → 2015-12-09)
gdp: 7.00 → 6.90 -0.10 (2015-07-15 → 2015-10-19)
pmi_mfg: 49.80 → 49.70 -0.10 (2015-10-01 → 2015-12-01)
pmi_svc: 53.40 → 53.60 +0.20 (2015-10-01 → 2015-12-01)
policy_rate: 4.55 → 4.30 -0.25 (2015-09-30 → 2015-12-25)
slope_2s10s: 0.56 → 0.37 -0.19 (2015-09-30 → 2015-12-25)
yield_10y: 3.24 → 2.81 -0.43 (2015-09-30 → 2015-12-25)
yield_2y: 2.67 → 2.44 -0.24 (2015-09-30 → 2015-12-25)

Euro area

cpi_yoy: -0.10 → 0.20 +0.30 (2015-09-30 → 2015-12-16)
gdp: 0.00 → -0.10 -0.10 (2015-09-16 → 2015-12-16)
pmi_mfg: 52.00 → 53.10 +1.10 (2015-10-01 → 2015-12-16)
pmi_svc: 54.00 → 53.90 -0.10 (2015-09-23 → 2015-12-16)
policy_rate: 0.05 → 0.05 0.00 (2015-09-03 → 2015-12-03)
unemployment: 11.00 → 10.70 -0.30 (2015-09-30 → 2015-12-01)
yield_10y: 1.20 → 1.19 -0.01 (2015-10-01 → 2015-12-01)

Japan

core_cpi: 0.80 → 0.90 +0.10 (2015-09-25 → 2015-12-25)
cpi_yoy: 0.20 → 0.30 +0.10 (2015-09-25 → 2015-12-25)
policy_rate: 0.10 → 0.10 0.00 (2015-09-15 → 2015-12-18)
unemployment: 3.40 → 3.30 -0.10 (2015-10-02 → 2015-12-25)
yield_10y: 0.30 → 0.27 -0.03 (2015-10-01 → 2015-12-01)

Busiest week: 2015-W51 (3 active mechanisms) · Quietest: 2015-W44 (0 active)

Synthesis

(historical period — no Claude narration run)

Decompose