Macro Intelligence · Quarterly board

2015-Q3

Quarterly aggregate · 13 week regimes · drill into children for finer reads

Quarterly

2015-Q3 — 13 weeks across 3 months

Dashboard from the materialized period object + the de-blended store. Actuals are deterministic; synthesis (below) is narrated for the current period only.

Headline — where each bloc stands

Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder

Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.

Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion

Indicators — pick a metric, compare blocs · recession shading + crosshair

One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.

Per-region breakdown — 2015-Q3 vs 2015-Q2, with trend

Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper

A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value

B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric

Whole-board snapshot — parallel coordinates · parallel coordinates

Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2015-Q3).

Audit trail — detail tables

📊 Data verdicts · 13 week(s) in period · deterministic, no narration

Standing regime — start → end, per bloc

United States

goldilocks / reflation → deflation watch

W36: goldilocks / reflation → deflation watch

China

disinflationary stall → stall-speed, at target

W28: disinflationary stall → stall-speed, at target

Euro area

goldilocks / reflation · held all period

Japan

disinflationary stall → deflation watch

W31: disinflationary stall → deflation watch

Mechanisms fired across the period

United States

M5 ×5 growth_acceleration
M9 ×1 yield_spike

China

no fires

Euro area

no fires

Japan

M1 ×5 inflation_surprise_up

Net indicator moves (first refreshed value → last)

United States

core_cpi: 0.21 → 0.10 -0.11 (2015-07-01 → 2015-09-16)
core_pce: 1.18 → 1.23 +0.05 (2015-07-01 → 2015-09-01)
cpi_yoy: 0.23 → 0.20 -0.03 (2015-07-01 → 2015-09-16)
gdp: 1.60 → 3.90 +2.30 (2015-07-01 → 2015-09-25)
pmi_mfg: 53.50 → 51.10 -2.40 (2015-07-01 → 2015-09-01)
pmi_svc: 55.70 → 59.00 +3.30 (2015-06-03 → 2015-09-03)
policy_rate: 0.25 → 0.25 0.00 (2015-07-05 → 2015-09-27)
slope_2s10s: 1.76 → 1.47 -0.29 (2015-07-02 → 2015-09-25)
unemployment: 5.30 → 5.10 -0.20 (2015-07-02 → 2015-09-04)
yield_10y: 2.40 → 2.17 -0.23 (2015-07-02 → 2015-09-25)
yield_2y: 0.64 → 0.70 +0.06 (2015-07-02 → 2015-09-25)

China

cpi_yoy: 1.20 → 2.00 +0.80 (2015-06-09 → 2015-09-10)
gdp: 7.00 → 7.00 0.00 (2015-04-15 → 2015-07-15)
pmi_mfg: 50.00 → 49.80 -0.20 (2015-07-01 → 2015-09-01)
pmi_svc: 53.80 → 53.40 -0.40 (2015-07-01 → 2015-09-01)
policy_rate: 4.80 → 4.55 -0.25 (2015-07-03 → 2015-09-25)
slope_2s10s: 1.21 → 0.62 -0.60 (2015-07-03 → 2015-09-25)
yield_10y: 3.57 → 3.31 -0.26 (2015-07-03 → 2015-09-25)
yield_2y: 2.36 → 2.69 +0.33 (2015-07-03 → 2015-09-25)

Euro area

cpi_yoy: 0.20 → 0.10 -0.10 (2015-06-30 → 2015-09-16)
gdp: 0.20 → 0.00 -0.20 (2015-06-17 → 2015-09-16)
pmi_mfg: 52.50 → 52.00 -0.50 (2015-07-01 → 2015-09-23)
pmi_svc: 54.40 → 54.00 -0.40 (2015-07-03 → 2015-09-23)
policy_rate: 0.05 → 0.05 0.00 (2015-06-03 → 2015-09-03)
unemployment: 11.10 → 10.90 -0.20 (2015-06-30 → 2015-09-01)
yield_10y: 1.53 → 1.48 -0.05 (2015-07-01 → 2015-09-01)

Japan

core_cpi: 0.40 → 0.80 +0.40 (2015-06-26 → 2015-09-25)
cpi_yoy: 0.50 → 0.20 -0.30 (2015-06-26 → 2015-09-25)
policy_rate: 0.10 → 0.10 0.00 (2015-06-19 → 2015-09-15)
unemployment: 3.30 → 3.30 0.00 (2015-06-26 → 2015-08-28)
yield_10y: 0.41 → 0.35 -0.06 (2015-07-01 → 2015-09-01)

Busiest week: 2015-W28 (2 active mechanisms) · Quietest: 2015-W35 (0 active)

Synthesis

(historical period — no Claude narration run)

Decompose