Macro Intelligence · Quarterly board

2015-Q1

Quarterly aggregate · 13 week regimes · drill into children for finer reads

Quarterly

2015-Q1 — 13 weeks across 3 months

Dashboard from the materialized period object + the de-blended store. Actuals are deterministic; synthesis (below) is narrated for the current period only.

Headline — where each bloc stands

Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder

Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.

Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion

Indicators — pick a metric, compare blocs · recession shading + crosshair

One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.

Per-region breakdown — 2015-Q1 vs 2014-Q4, with trend

Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper

A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value

B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric

Whole-board snapshot — parallel coordinates · parallel coordinates

Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2015-Q1).

Audit trail — detail tables

📊 Data verdicts · 13 week(s) in period · deterministic, no narration

Standing regime — start → end, per bloc

United States

goldilocks / reflation · held all period

China

stall-speed, at target · held all period

Euro area

deflation watch · held all period

Japan

stall-speed, at target · held all period

Mechanisms fired across the period

United States

M9 ×2 yield_spike

China

M6 ×4 growth_slowdown

Euro area

M5 ×3 growth_acceleration

Japan

no fires

Net indicator moves (first refreshed value → last)

United States

core_cpi: 0.09 → 0.20 +0.11 (2015-01-01 → 2015-03-24)
core_pce: 1.21 → 1.30 +0.09 (2015-01-01 → 2015-03-02)
cpi_yoy: -0.23 → 0.00 +0.23 (2015-01-01 → 2015-03-17)
gdp: 3.60 → 2.20 -1.40 (2015-01-01 → 2015-03-27)
pmi_mfg: 55.50 → 52.90 -2.60 (2015-01-02 → 2015-03-02)
pmi_svc: 59.30 → 56.90 -2.40 (2014-12-03 → 2015-03-04)
policy_rate: 0.25 → 0.25 0.00 (2015-01-04 → 2015-03-29)
slope_2s10s: 1.46 → 1.37 -0.09 (2015-01-02 → 2015-03-27)
unemployment: 5.70 → 5.50 -0.20 (2015-01-01 → 2015-03-06)
yield_10y: 2.12 → 1.95 -0.17 (2015-01-02 → 2015-03-27)
yield_2y: 0.66 → 0.58 -0.08 (2015-01-02 → 2015-03-27)

China

cpi_yoy: 1.40 → 1.40 0.00 (2014-12-10 → 2015-03-10)
gdp: 7.30 → 7.30 0.00 (2014-10-21 → 2015-01-20)
pmi_mfg: 49.80 → 50.10 +0.30 (2015-01-01 → 2015-03-01)
pmi_svc: 54.10 → 53.90 -0.20 (2015-01-01 → 2015-03-01)
policy_rate: 5.51 → 5.30 -0.21 (2015-01-04 → 2015-03-27)
slope_2s10s: 0.31 → 0.35 +0.04 (2015-01-04 → 2015-03-27)
yield_10y: 3.63 → 3.57 -0.06 (2015-01-04 → 2015-03-27)
yield_2y: 3.31 → 3.21 -0.10 (2015-01-04 → 2015-03-27)

Euro area

cpi_yoy: 0.30 → -0.30 -0.60 (2014-12-17 → 2015-03-17)
gdp: -0.20 → 0.60 +0.80 (2014-12-17 → 2015-03-17)
pmi_mfg: 50.60 → 51.90 +1.30 (2015-01-02 → 2015-03-24)
pmi_svc: 51.90 → 54.30 +2.40 (2014-12-16 → 2015-03-24)
policy_rate: 0.05 → 0.05 0.00 (2014-12-04 → 2015-03-05)
unemployment: 11.50 → 11.20 -0.30 (2014-11-28 → 2015-03-02)
yield_10y: 1.27 → 0.95 -0.32 (2015-01-01 → 2015-03-01)

Japan

core_cpi: 2.10 → 2.00 -0.10 (2014-12-26 → 2015-03-28)
cpi_yoy: 2.40 → 2.20 -0.20 (2014-12-26 → 2015-03-28)
policy_rate: 0.10 → 0.10 0.00 (2014-12-19 → 2015-03-17)
unemployment: 3.50 → 3.60 +0.10 (2014-12-30 → 2015-03-01)
yield_10y: 0.28 → 0.40 +0.12 (2015-01-01 → 2015-03-01)

Busiest week: 2015-W04 (2 active mechanisms) · Quietest: 2015-W07 (0 active)

Synthesis

(historical period — no Claude narration run)

Decompose