Macro Intelligence · Quarterly board

2015-Q2

Quarterly aggregate · 13 week regimes · drill into children for finer reads

Quarterly

2015-Q2 — 13 weeks across 3 months

Dashboard from the materialized period object + the de-blended store. Actuals are deterministic; synthesis (below) is narrated for the current period only.

Headline — where each bloc stands

Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder

Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.

Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion

Indicators — pick a metric, compare blocs · recession shading + crosshair

One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.

Per-region breakdown — 2015-Q2 vs 2015-Q1, with trend

Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper

A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value

B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric

Whole-board snapshot — parallel coordinates · parallel coordinates

Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2015-Q2).

Audit trail — detail tables

📊 Data verdicts · 13 week(s) in period · deterministic, no narration

Standing regime — start → end, per bloc

United States

deflation watch → goldilocks / reflation

W23: deflation watch → goldilocks / reflation

China

stall-speed, at target → disinflationary stall

W24: stall-speed, at target → disinflationary stall

Euro area

goldilocks / reflation · held all period

Japan

stall-speed, at target → disinflationary stall

W22: stall-speed, at target → disinflationary stall

Mechanisms fired across the period

United States

M5 ×4 growth_acceleration
M9 ×1 yield_spike

China

no fires

Euro area

M9 ×9 yield_spike
M5 ×3 growth_acceleration

Japan

M2 ×4 inflation_surprise_down

Net indicator moves (first refreshed value → last)

United States

core_cpi: 0.25 → 0.10 -0.15 (2015-04-01 → 2015-06-18)
core_pce: 1.29 → 1.20 -0.09 (2015-04-01 → 2015-06-25)
cpi_yoy: -0.10 → 0.00 +0.10 (2015-04-01 → 2015-06-18)
gdp: 2.50 → -0.20 -2.70 (2015-04-01 → 2015-06-24)
pmi_mfg: 51.50 → 52.80 +1.30 (2015-04-01 → 2015-06-01)
pmi_svc: 56.90 → 55.70 -1.20 (2015-03-04 → 2015-06-03)
policy_rate: 0.25 → 0.25 0.00 (2015-04-05 → 2015-06-28)
slope_2s10s: 1.36 → 1.77 +0.41 (2015-04-03 → 2015-06-26)
unemployment: 5.50 → 5.50 0.00 (2015-04-03 → 2015-06-05)
yield_10y: 1.85 → 2.49 +0.64 (2015-04-03 → 2015-06-26)
yield_2y: 0.49 → 0.72 +0.23 (2015-04-03 → 2015-06-26)

China

cpi_yoy: 1.40 → 1.20 -0.20 (2015-03-10 → 2015-06-09)
gdp: 7.30 → 7.00 -0.30 (2015-01-20 → 2015-04-15)
pmi_mfg: 50.10 → 50.20 +0.10 (2015-04-01 → 2015-06-01)
pmi_svc: 53.70 → 53.20 -0.50 (2015-04-01 → 2015-06-01)
policy_rate: 5.30 → 5.05 -0.25 (2015-04-03 → 2015-06-26)
slope_2s10s: 0.35 → 1.29 +0.93 (2015-04-03 → 2015-06-26)
yield_10y: 3.57 → 3.61 +0.04 (2015-04-03 → 2015-06-26)
yield_2y: 3.22 → 2.32 -0.90 (2015-04-03 → 2015-06-26)

Euro area

cpi_yoy: -0.10 → 0.30 +0.40 (2015-03-31 → 2015-06-17)
gdp: 0.60 → 0.20 -0.40 (2015-03-17 → 2015-06-17)
pmi_mfg: 52.20 → 52.50 +0.30 (2015-04-01 → 2015-06-23)
pmi_svc: 54.30 → 54.40 +0.10 (2015-03-24 → 2015-06-23)
policy_rate: 0.05 → 0.05 0.00 (2015-03-05 → 2015-06-03)
unemployment: 11.30 → 11.10 -0.20 (2015-03-31 → 2015-06-03)
yield_10y: 0.85 → 1.66 +0.81 (2015-04-01 → 2015-06-01)

Japan

core_cpi: 2.00 → 0.40 -1.60 (2015-03-28 → 2015-06-26)
cpi_yoy: 2.20 → 0.50 -1.70 (2015-03-28 → 2015-06-26)
policy_rate: 0.10 → 0.10 0.00 (2015-03-17 → 2015-06-19)
unemployment: 3.50 → 3.30 -0.20 (2015-04-01 → 2015-06-26)
yield_10y: 0.34 → 0.46 +0.12 (2015-04-01 → 2015-06-01)

Busiest week: 2015-W23 (4 active mechanisms) · Quietest: 2015-W17 (0 active)

Synthesis

(historical period — no Claude narration run)

Decompose