Macro Intelligence · Yearly board

2013

Yearly aggregate · 52 week regimes · drill into children for finer reads

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Yearly

2013 — 52 weeks across 4 quarters

Dashboard from the materialized period object + the de-blended store. Actuals are deterministic; synthesis (below) is narrated for the current period only.

Headline — where each bloc stands

Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder

Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.

Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion

Indicators — pick a metric, compare blocs · recession shading + crosshair

One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.

Per-region breakdown — 2013 vs 2012, with trend

Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper

A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value
B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric

Whole-board snapshot — parallel coordinates · parallel coordinates

Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2013).

Audit trail — detail tables
📊 Data verdicts · 52 week(s) in period · deterministic, no narration

Standing regime — start → end, per bloc

United States
stall-speed, at target → goldilocks / reflation
W05: stall-speed, at target → expansion, at target · W14: expansion, at target → disinflationary stall · W15: disinflationary stall → stall-speed, at target · W20: stall-speed, at target → disinflationary stall · W22: disinflationary stall → stall-speed, at target · W31: stall-speed, at target → expansion, at target · W35: expansion, at target → goldilocks / reflation · W37: goldilocks / reflation → expansion, at target · W40: expansion, at target → goldilocks / reflation · W48: goldilocks / reflation → expansion, at target · W50: expansion, at target → goldilocks / reflation
China
stall-speed, at target → overheating / late-cycle
W10: stall-speed, at target → overheating / late-cycle · W15: overheating / late-cycle → stall-speed, at target · W28: stall-speed, at target → disinflationary stall · W37: disinflationary stall → stall-speed, at target · W42: stall-speed, at target → overheating / late-cycle
Euro area
disinflationary stall → goldilocks / reflation
W23: disinflationary stall → stall-speed, at target · W40: stall-speed, at target → disinflationary stall · W51: disinflationary stall → goldilocks / reflation
Japan
deflation watch → stall-speed, at target
W34: deflation watch → disinflationary stall · W52: disinflationary stall → stall-speed, at target

Mechanisms fired across the period

United States
  • M5 ×34 growth_acceleration
  • M9 ×5 yield_spike
  • M6 ×4 growth_slowdown
  • M2 ×2 inflation_surprise_down
China
  • M5 ×9 growth_acceleration
  • M9 ×1 yield_spike
Euro area
  • M9 ×28 yield_spike
  • M13 ×10 contraction_easing
  • M3 ×9 policy_easing
  • M5 ×5 growth_acceleration
  • M6 ×2 growth_slowdown
Japan
  • M1 ×18 inflation_surprise_up
  • M2 ×4 inflation_surprise_down
  • M9 ×4 yield_spike

Net indicator moves (first refreshed value → last)

United States
  • core_cpi: 0.22 → 0.20 -0.02 (2013-01-01 → 2013-12-17)
  • core_pce: 1.59 → 1.55 -0.04 (2013-01-01 → 2013-12-01)
  • cpi_yoy: 1.68 → 1.20 -0.48 (2013-01-01 → 2013-12-15)
  • gdp: 4.00 → 4.10 +0.10 (2013-01-01 → 2013-12-20)
  • pmi_mfg: 50.70 → 57.30 +6.60 (2013-01-02 → 2013-12-02)
  • pmi_svc: 56.10 → 53.90 -2.20 (2013-01-04 → 2013-12-04)
  • policy_rate: 0.25 → 0.25 0.00 (2013-01-06 → 2013-12-29)
  • slope_2s10s: 1.66 → 2.62 +0.96 (2013-01-04 → 2013-12-27)
  • unemployment: 7.80 → 7.00 -0.80 (2013-01-04 → 2013-12-06)
  • yield_10y: 1.93 → 3.02 +1.09 (2013-01-04 → 2013-12-27)
  • yield_2y: 0.27 → 0.40 +0.13 (2013-01-04 → 2013-12-27)
China
  • cpi_yoy: 2.00 → 3.00 +1.00 (2012-12-09 → 2013-12-09)
  • gdp: 7.40 → 7.80 +0.40 (2012-10-18 → 2013-10-18)
  • pmi_mfg: 50.40 → 51.00 +0.60 (2013-01-01 → 2013-12-01)
  • pmi_svc: 56.10 → 56.00 -0.10 (2013-01-03 → 2013-12-03)
  • policy_rate: 5.71 → 5.73 +0.02 (2013-10-25 → 2013-12-27)
  • slope_2s10s: 0.56 → 0.18 -0.38 (2013-01-06 → 2013-12-27)
  • yield_10y: 3.60 → 4.54 +0.95 (2013-01-06 → 2013-12-27)
  • yield_2y: 3.04 → 4.36 +1.33 (2013-01-06 → 2013-12-27)
Euro area
  • cpi_yoy: 2.20 → 0.90 -1.30 (2013-01-04 → 2013-12-17)
  • gdp: 0.40 → -0.10 -0.50 (2013-01-01 → 2013-12-17)
  • pmi_mfg: 46.10 → 52.70 +6.60 (2013-01-02 → 2013-12-16)
  • pmi_svc: 47.80 → 51.00 +3.20 (2013-01-04 → 2013-12-16)
  • policy_rate: 0.75 → 0.25 -0.50 (2012-12-06 → 2013-12-05)
  • unemployment: 11.70 → 12.10 +0.40 (2012-11-30 → 2013-11-29)
  • yield_10y: 2.39 → 3.31 +0.92 (2013-01-01 → 2013-12-01)
Japan
  • core_cpi: -0.50 → 0.60 +1.10 (2012-12-26 → 2013-12-26)
  • cpi_yoy: -0.20 → 1.50 +1.70 (2012-12-26 → 2013-12-26)
  • policy_rate: 0.10 → 0.10 0.00 (2012-12-20 → 2013-12-20)
  • unemployment: 4.10 → 4.00 -0.10 (2012-12-30 → 2013-11-29)
  • yield_10y: 0.78 → 0.69 -0.09 (2013-01-01 → 2013-12-01)

Busiest week: 2013-W13 (5 active mechanisms) · Quietest: 2013-W17 (0 active)

Synthesis

(historical period — no Claude narration run)

Decompose

2013-Q1
quarterly board
2013-Q2
quarterly board
2013-Q3
quarterly board
2013-Q4
quarterly board