Macro Intelligence · Quarterly board

2013-Q2

Quarterly aggregate · 13 week regimes · drill into children for finer reads

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Quarterly

2013-Q2 — 13 weeks across 3 months

Dashboard from the materialized period object + the de-blended store. Actuals are deterministic; synthesis (below) is narrated for the current period only.

Headline — where each bloc stands

Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder

Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.

Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion

Indicators — pick a metric, compare blocs · recession shading + crosshair

One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.

Per-region breakdown — 2013-Q2 vs 2013-Q1, with trend

Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper

A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value

B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric

Whole-board snapshot — parallel coordinates · parallel coordinates

Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2013-Q2).

Audit trail — detail tables

📊 Data verdicts · 13 week(s) in period · deterministic, no narration

Standing regime — start → end, per bloc

United States

disinflationary stall → stall-speed, at target

W15: disinflationary stall → stall-speed, at target · W20: stall-speed, at target → disinflationary stall · W22: disinflationary stall → stall-speed, at target

China

overheating / late-cycle → stall-speed, at target

W15: overheating / late-cycle → stall-speed, at target

Euro area

disinflationary stall → stall-speed, at target

W23: disinflationary stall → stall-speed, at target

Japan

deflation watch · held all period

Mechanisms fired across the period

United States

M6 ×4 growth_slowdown
M9 ×2 yield_spike

China

no fires

Euro area

M13 ×6 contraction_easing
M3 ×5 policy_easing
M9 ×5 yield_spike

Japan

M1 ×6 inflation_surprise_up
M9 ×4 yield_spike
M2 ×3 inflation_surprise_down

Net indicator moves (first refreshed value → last)

United States

core_cpi: 0.02 → 0.20 +0.18 (2013-04-01 → 2013-06-18)
core_pce: 1.38 → 1.46 +0.08 (2013-04-01 → 2013-06-01)
cpi_yoy: 1.14 → 1.40 +0.26 (2013-04-01 → 2013-06-14)
gdp: 1.10 → 1.80 +0.70 (2013-04-01 → 2013-06-26)
pmi_mfg: 51.30 → 49.00 -2.30 (2013-04-01 → 2013-06-03)
pmi_svc: 54.40 → 53.70 -0.70 (2013-04-03 → 2013-06-05)
policy_rate: 0.25 → 0.25 0.00 (2013-04-07 → 2013-06-30)
slope_2s10s: 1.48 → 2.16 +0.68 (2013-04-05 → 2013-06-28)
unemployment: 7.60 → 7.60 0.00 (2013-04-05 → 2013-06-07)
yield_10y: 1.72 → 2.52 +0.80 (2013-04-05 → 2013-06-28)
yield_2y: 0.24 → 0.36 +0.12 (2013-04-05 → 2013-06-28)

China

cpi_yoy: 3.20 → 2.10 -1.10 (2013-03-09 → 2013-06-09)
gdp: 7.90 → 7.70 -0.20 (2013-01-18 → 2013-04-15)
pmi_mfg: 50.60 → 50.10 -0.50 (2013-04-01 → 2013-06-01)
pmi_svc: 55.60 → 54.30 -1.30 (2013-04-03 → 2013-06-03)
slope_2s10s: 0.53 → 0.29 -0.23 (2013-04-07 → 2013-06-28)
yield_10y: 3.49 → 3.51 +0.02 (2013-04-07 → 2013-06-28)
yield_2y: 2.96 → 3.22 +0.26 (2013-04-07 → 2013-06-28)

Euro area

cpi_yoy: 1.70 → 1.40 -0.30 (2013-04-03 → 2013-06-14)
gdp: 1.20 → 0.10 -1.10 (2013-04-01 → 2013-06-14)
pmi_mfg: 46.80 → 48.70 +1.90 (2013-04-02 → 2013-06-20)
pmi_svc: 46.40 → 48.60 +2.20 (2013-04-04 → 2013-06-20)
policy_rate: 0.75 → 0.50 -0.25 (2013-04-04 → 2013-06-06)
unemployment: 12.00 → 12.20 +0.20 (2013-04-02 → 2013-05-31)
yield_10y: 2.86 → 3.07 +0.21 (2013-04-01 → 2013-06-01)

Japan

core_cpi: -0.90 → -0.40 +0.50 (2013-03-28 → 2013-06-25)
cpi_yoy: -0.70 → -0.30 +0.40 (2013-03-28 → 2013-06-25)
policy_rate: 0.10 → 0.10 0.00 (2013-04-04 → 2013-06-11)
unemployment: 4.30 → 4.10 -0.20 (2013-04-01 → 2013-06-29)
yield_10y: 0.59 → 0.82 +0.23 (2013-04-01 → 2013-06-01)

Busiest week: 2013-W25 (5 active mechanisms) · Quietest: 2013-W17 (0 active)

Synthesis

(historical period — no Claude narration run)

Decompose