Macro Intelligence · Quarterly board

2013-Q3

Quarterly aggregate · 13 week regimes · drill into children for finer reads

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Quarterly

2013-Q3 — 13 weeks across 3 months

Dashboard from the materialized period object + the de-blended store. Actuals are deterministic; synthesis (below) is narrated for the current period only.

Headline — where each bloc stands

Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder

Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.

Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion

Indicators — pick a metric, compare blocs · recession shading + crosshair

One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.

Per-region breakdown — 2013-Q3 vs 2013-Q2, with trend

Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper

A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value

B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric

Whole-board snapshot — parallel coordinates · parallel coordinates

Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2013-Q3).

Audit trail — detail tables

📊 Data verdicts · 13 week(s) in period · deterministic, no narration

Standing regime — start → end, per bloc

United States

stall-speed, at target → expansion, at target

W31: stall-speed, at target → expansion, at target · W35: expansion, at target → goldilocks / reflation · W37: goldilocks / reflation → expansion, at target

China

stall-speed, at target · held all period

Euro area

stall-speed, at target · held all period

Japan

deflation watch → disinflationary stall

W34: deflation watch → disinflationary stall

Mechanisms fired across the period

United States

M5 ×13 growth_acceleration
M9 ×1 yield_spike

China

M5 ×4 growth_acceleration

Euro area

M9 ×5 yield_spike
M5 ×3 growth_acceleration

Japan

M1 ×7 inflation_surprise_up

Net indicator moves (first refreshed value → last)

United States

core_cpi: 0.23 → 0.10 -0.13 (2013-07-01 → 2013-09-17)
core_pce: 1.49 → 1.53 +0.04 (2013-07-01 → 2013-09-01)
cpi_yoy: 1.89 → 1.50 -0.39 (2013-07-01 → 2013-09-14)
gdp: 3.50 → 2.50 -1.00 (2013-07-01 → 2013-09-26)
pmi_mfg: 50.90 → 55.70 +4.80 (2013-07-01 → 2013-09-03)
pmi_svc: 52.20 → 58.60 +6.40 (2013-07-03 → 2013-09-05)
policy_rate: 0.25 → 0.25 0.00 (2013-07-07 → 2013-09-29)
slope_2s10s: 2.33 → 2.30 -0.03 (2013-07-05 → 2013-09-27)
unemployment: 7.60 → 7.30 -0.30 (2013-07-05 → 2013-09-06)
yield_10y: 2.73 → 2.64 -0.09 (2013-07-05 → 2013-09-27)
yield_2y: 0.40 → 0.34 -0.06 (2013-07-05 → 2013-09-27)

China

cpi_yoy: 2.10 → 2.60 +0.50 (2013-06-09 → 2013-09-09)
gdp: 7.70 → 7.50 -0.20 (2013-04-15 → 2013-07-15)
pmi_mfg: 50.30 → 51.10 +0.80 (2013-07-01 → 2013-09-01)
pmi_svc: 53.90 → 53.90 0.00 (2013-07-03 → 2013-09-03)
slope_2s10s: 0.37 → 0.22 -0.14 (2013-07-05 → 2013-09-29)
yield_10y: 3.51 → 4.00 +0.49 (2013-07-05 → 2013-09-29)
yield_2y: 3.15 → 3.78 +0.63 (2013-07-05 → 2013-09-29)

Euro area

cpi_yoy: 1.60 → 1.30 -0.30 (2013-07-01 → 2013-09-16)
gdp: 0.10 → 0.10 0.00 (2013-06-14 → 2013-09-16)
pmi_mfg: 48.80 → 51.10 +2.30 (2013-07-01 → 2013-09-23)
pmi_svc: 48.30 → 52.10 +3.80 (2013-07-03 → 2013-09-23)
policy_rate: 0.50 → 0.50 0.00 (2013-07-04 → 2013-09-05)
unemployment: 12.10 → 12.10 0.00 (2013-07-01 → 2013-08-30)
yield_10y: 3.10 → 3.41 +0.31 (2013-07-01 → 2013-09-01)

Japan

core_cpi: -0.40 → -0.10 +0.30 (2013-06-25 → 2013-09-25)
cpi_yoy: -0.30 → 0.90 +1.20 (2013-06-25 → 2013-09-25)
policy_rate: 0.10 → 0.10 0.00 (2013-06-11 → 2013-09-05)
unemployment: 4.10 → 4.10 0.00 (2013-06-29 → 2013-09-29)
yield_10y: 0.79 → 0.67 -0.12 (2013-07-01 → 2013-09-01)

Busiest week: 2013-W27 (3 active mechanisms) · Quietest: 2013-W28 (2 active)

Synthesis

(historical period — no Claude narration run)

Decompose