Macro Intelligence · Quarterly board

2013-Q4

Quarterly aggregate · 13 week regimes · drill into children for finer reads

Quarterly

2013-Q4 — 13 weeks across 3 months

Dashboard from the materialized period object + the de-blended store. Actuals are deterministic; synthesis (below) is narrated for the current period only.

Headline — where each bloc stands

Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder

Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.

Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion

Indicators — pick a metric, compare blocs · recession shading + crosshair

One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.

Per-region breakdown — 2013-Q4 vs 2013-Q3, with trend

Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper

A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value

B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric

Whole-board snapshot — parallel coordinates · parallel coordinates

Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2013-Q4).

Audit trail — detail tables

📊 Data verdicts · 13 week(s) in period · deterministic, no narration

Standing regime — start → end, per bloc

United States

goldilocks / reflation · held all period

China

stall-speed, at target → overheating / late-cycle

W42: stall-speed, at target → overheating / late-cycle

Euro area

disinflationary stall → goldilocks / reflation

W51: disinflationary stall → goldilocks / reflation

Japan

disinflationary stall → stall-speed, at target

W52: disinflationary stall → stall-speed, at target

Mechanisms fired across the period

United States

M5 ×8 growth_acceleration
M9 ×1 yield_spike

China

M9 ×1 yield_spike

Euro area

M9 ×5 yield_spike
M3 ×4 policy_easing
M5 ×2 growth_acceleration

Japan

M1 ×5 inflation_surprise_up

Net indicator moves (first refreshed value → last)

United States

core_cpi: 0.09 → 0.20 +0.11 (2013-10-01 → 2013-12-17)
core_pce: 1.45 → 1.55 +0.10 (2013-10-01 → 2013-12-01)
cpi_yoy: 0.88 → 1.20 +0.32 (2013-10-01 → 2013-12-15)
gdp: 3.50 → 4.10 +0.60 (2013-10-01 → 2013-12-20)
pmi_mfg: 56.20 → 57.30 +1.10 (2013-10-01 → 2013-12-02)
pmi_svc: 54.40 → 53.90 -0.50 (2013-10-03 → 2013-12-04)
policy_rate: 0.25 → 0.25 0.00 (2013-10-06 → 2013-12-29)
slope_2s10s: 2.33 → 2.62 +0.29 (2013-10-04 → 2013-12-27)
unemployment: 7.20 → 7.00 -0.20 (2013-10-01 → 2013-12-06)
yield_10y: 2.66 → 3.02 +0.36 (2013-10-04 → 2013-12-27)
yield_2y: 0.33 → 0.40 +0.07 (2013-10-04 → 2013-12-27)

China

cpi_yoy: 2.60 → 3.00 +0.40 (2013-09-09 → 2013-12-09)
gdp: 7.50 → 7.80 +0.30 (2013-07-15 → 2013-10-18)
pmi_mfg: 51.40 → 51.00 -0.40 (2013-10-01 → 2013-12-01)
pmi_svc: 55.40 → 56.00 +0.60 (2013-10-03 → 2013-12-03)
policy_rate: 5.71 → 5.73 +0.02 (2013-10-25 → 2013-12-27)
slope_2s10s: 0.22 → 0.18 -0.04 (2013-09-30 → 2013-12-27)
yield_10y: 4.00 → 4.54 +0.55 (2013-09-30 → 2013-12-27)
yield_2y: 3.77 → 4.36 +0.59 (2013-09-30 → 2013-12-27)

Euro area

cpi_yoy: 1.10 → 0.90 -0.20 (2013-09-30 → 2013-12-17)
gdp: 0.10 → -0.10 -0.20 (2013-09-16 → 2013-12-17)
pmi_mfg: 51.10 → 52.70 +1.60 (2013-10-01 → 2013-12-16)
pmi_svc: 52.20 → 51.00 -1.20 (2013-10-03 → 2013-12-16)
policy_rate: 0.50 → 0.25 -0.25 (2013-10-02 → 2013-12-05)
unemployment: 12.00 → 12.10 +0.10 (2013-10-01 → 2013-11-29)
yield_10y: 3.16 → 3.31 +0.15 (2013-10-01 → 2013-12-01)

Japan

core_cpi: -0.10 → 0.60 +0.70 (2013-09-25 → 2013-12-26)
cpi_yoy: 0.90 → 1.50 +0.60 (2013-09-25 → 2013-12-26)
policy_rate: 0.10 → 0.10 0.00 (2013-10-04 → 2013-12-20)
unemployment: 4.10 → 4.00 -0.10 (2013-09-29 → 2013-11-29)
yield_10y: 0.59 → 0.69 +0.10 (2013-10-01 → 2013-12-01)

Busiest week: 2013-W51 (4 active mechanisms) · Quietest: 2013-W44 (0 active)

Synthesis

(historical period — no Claude narration run)

Decompose