Macro Intelligence · Quarterly board

2013-Q1

Quarterly aggregate · 13 week regimes · drill into children for finer reads

Quarterly

2013-Q1 — 13 weeks across 3 months

Dashboard from the materialized period object + the de-blended store. Actuals are deterministic; synthesis (below) is narrated for the current period only.

Headline — where each bloc stands

Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder

Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.

Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion

Indicators — pick a metric, compare blocs · recession shading + crosshair

One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.

Per-region breakdown — 2013-Q1 vs 2012-Q4, with trend

Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper

A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value

B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric

Whole-board snapshot — parallel coordinates · parallel coordinates

Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2013-Q1).

Audit trail — detail tables

📊 Data verdicts · 13 week(s) in period · deterministic, no narration

Standing regime — start → end, per bloc

United States

stall-speed, at target → expansion, at target

W05: stall-speed, at target → expansion, at target

China

stall-speed, at target → overheating / late-cycle

W10: stall-speed, at target → overheating / late-cycle

Euro area

disinflationary stall · held all period

Japan

deflation watch · held all period

Mechanisms fired across the period

United States

M5 ×13 growth_acceleration
M2 ×2 inflation_surprise_down
M9 ×1 yield_spike

China

M5 ×5 growth_acceleration

Euro area

M9 ×13 yield_spike
M13 ×4 contraction_easing
M6 ×2 growth_slowdown

Japan

M2 ×1 inflation_surprise_down

Net indicator moves (first refreshed value → last)

United States

core_cpi: 0.22 → 0.20 -0.02 (2013-01-01 → 2013-03-15)
core_pce: 1.59 → 1.48 -0.11 (2013-01-01 → 2013-03-01)
cpi_yoy: 1.68 → 2.00 +0.32 (2013-01-01 → 2013-03-17)
gdp: 4.00 → 0.40 -3.60 (2013-01-01 → 2013-03-28)
pmi_mfg: 50.70 → 54.20 +3.50 (2013-01-02 → 2013-03-01)
pmi_svc: 56.10 → 56.00 -0.10 (2013-01-04 → 2013-03-05)
policy_rate: 0.25 → 0.25 0.00 (2013-01-06 → 2013-03-31)
slope_2s10s: 1.66 → 1.62 -0.04 (2013-01-04 → 2013-03-28)
unemployment: 7.80 → 7.70 -0.10 (2013-01-04 → 2013-03-08)
yield_10y: 1.93 → 1.87 -0.06 (2013-01-04 → 2013-03-28)
yield_2y: 0.27 → 0.25 -0.02 (2013-01-04 → 2013-03-28)

China

cpi_yoy: 2.00 → 3.20 +1.20 (2012-12-09 → 2013-03-09)
gdp: 7.40 → 7.90 +0.50 (2012-10-18 → 2013-01-18)
pmi_mfg: 50.40 → 50.90 +0.50 (2013-01-01 → 2013-03-01)
pmi_svc: 56.10 → 54.50 -1.60 (2013-01-03 → 2013-03-03)
slope_2s10s: 0.56 → 0.50 -0.05 (2013-01-06 → 2013-03-29)
yield_10y: 3.60 → 3.54 -0.06 (2013-01-06 → 2013-03-29)
yield_2y: 3.04 → 3.03 -0.00 (2013-01-06 → 2013-03-29)

Euro area

cpi_yoy: 2.20 → 1.80 -0.40 (2013-01-04 → 2013-03-15)
gdp: 0.40 → 0.40 0.00 (2013-01-01 → 2013-03-01)
pmi_mfg: 46.10 → 46.60 +0.50 (2013-01-02 → 2013-03-21)
pmi_svc: 47.80 → 46.50 -1.30 (2013-01-04 → 2013-03-21)
policy_rate: 0.75 → 0.75 0.00 (2012-12-06 → 2013-03-07)
unemployment: 11.70 → 11.90 +0.20 (2012-11-30 → 2013-03-01)
yield_10y: 2.39 → 3.03 +0.63 (2013-01-01 → 2013-03-01)

Japan

core_cpi: -0.50 → -0.90 -0.40 (2012-12-26 → 2013-03-28)
cpi_yoy: -0.20 → -0.70 -0.50 (2012-12-26 → 2013-03-28)
policy_rate: 0.10 → 0.10 0.00 (2012-12-20 → 2013-03-07)
unemployment: 4.10 → 4.20 +0.10 (2012-12-30 → 2013-03-01)
yield_10y: 0.78 → 0.49 -0.28 (2013-01-01 → 2013-03-01)

Busiest week: 2013-W13 (5 active mechanisms) · Quietest: 2013-W01 (2 active)

Synthesis

(historical period — no Claude narration run)

Decompose