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2012

Yearly aggregate · 53 week regimes · drill into children for finer reads

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Yearly

2012 — 53 weeks across 4 quarters

Dashboard from the materialized period object + the de-blended store. Actuals are deterministic; synthesis (below) is narrated for the current period only.

Headline — where each bloc stands

Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder

Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.

Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion

Indicators — pick a metric, compare blocs · recession shading + crosshair

One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.

Per-region breakdown — 2012 vs 2011, with trend

Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper

A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value
B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric

Whole-board snapshot — parallel coordinates · parallel coordinates

Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2012).

Audit trail — detail tables
📊 Data verdicts · 53 week(s) in period · deterministic, no narration

Standing regime — start → end, per bloc

United States
overheating / late-cycle → stall-speed, at target
W09: overheating / late-cycle → expansion, at target · W11: expansion, at target → overheating / late-cycle · W13: overheating / late-cycle → expansion, at target · W15: expansion, at target → goldilocks / reflation · W18: goldilocks / reflation → expansion, at target · W27: expansion, at target → stall-speed, at target
China
overheating / late-cycle → stall-speed, at target
W28: overheating / late-cycle → stall-speed, at target
Euro area
stagflationary → disinflationary stall
W03: stagflationary → disinflationary stall
Japan
deflation watch · held all period

Mechanisms fired across the period

United States
  • M5 ×17 growth_acceleration
  • M6 ×8 growth_slowdown
  • M9 ×3 yield_spike
China
  • M5 ×16 growth_acceleration
  • M13 ×5 contraction_easing
  • M6 ×4 growth_slowdown
Euro area
  • M13 ×11 contraction_easing
  • M6 ×8 growth_slowdown
  • M3 ×6 policy_easing
  • M9 ×4 yield_spike
Japan
  • M1 ×14 inflation_surprise_up
  • M2 ×4 inflation_surprise_down

Net indicator moves (first refreshed value → last)

United States
  • core_cpi: 0.21 → 0.10 -0.11 (2012-01-01 → 2012-12-14)
  • core_pce: 2.06 → 1.69 -0.37 (2012-01-01 → 2012-12-01)
  • cpi_yoy: 3.01 → 1.80 -1.21 (2012-01-01 → 2012-12-15)
  • gdp: 3.40 → 3.10 -0.30 (2012-01-01 → 2012-12-20)
  • pmi_mfg: 52.70 → 49.50 -3.20 (2011-12-01 → 2012-12-03)
  • pmi_svc: 52.00 → 54.70 +2.70 (2011-12-05 → 2012-12-05)
  • policy_rate: 0.25 → 0.25 0.00 (2012-01-01 → 2012-12-30)
  • slope_2s10s: 1.64 → 1.46 -0.18 (2011-12-30 → 2012-12-28)
  • unemployment: 8.30 → 7.70 -0.60 (2012-01-01 → 2012-12-07)
  • yield_10y: 1.89 → 1.73 -0.16 (2011-12-30 → 2012-12-28)
  • yield_2y: 0.25 → 0.27 +0.02 (2011-12-30 → 2012-12-28)
China
  • cpi_yoy: 4.20 → 2.00 -2.20 (2011-12-09 → 2012-12-09)
  • gdp: 9.10 → 7.40 -1.70 (2011-10-18 → 2012-10-18)
  • pmi_mfg: 50.50 → 50.60 +0.10 (2012-01-01 → 2012-12-01)
  • pmi_svc: 56.30 → 55.60 -0.70 (2012-01-01 → 2012-12-03)
  • slope_2s10s: 0.61 → 0.51 -0.10 (2011-12-31 → 2012-12-28)
  • yield_10y: 3.42 → 3.58 +0.15 (2011-12-31 → 2012-12-28)
  • yield_2y: 2.81 → 3.06 +0.26 (2011-12-31 → 2012-12-28)
Euro area
  • cpi_yoy: 3.00 → 2.20 -0.80 (2011-12-15 → 2012-12-14)
  • gdp: 0.30 → -0.20 -0.50 (2012-01-01 → 2012-12-01)
  • pmi_mfg: 46.90 → 46.30 -0.60 (2011-12-15 → 2012-12-14)
  • pmi_svc: 48.30 → 47.80 -0.50 (2011-12-15 → 2012-12-14)
  • policy_rate: 1.00 → 0.75 -0.25 (2011-12-08 → 2012-12-06)
  • unemployment: 10.30 → 11.70 +1.40 (2011-11-30 → 2012-11-30)
  • yield_10y: 3.90 → 2.10 -1.81 (2012-01-01 → 2012-12-01)
Japan
  • core_cpi: -1.10 → -0.50 +0.60 (2011-12-26 → 2012-12-26)
  • cpi_yoy: -0.50 → -0.20 +0.30 (2011-12-26 → 2012-12-26)
  • policy_rate: 0.10 → 0.10 0.00 (2011-12-21 → 2012-12-20)
  • unemployment: 4.50 → 4.10 -0.40 (2011-12-30 → 2012-12-30)
  • yield_10y: 0.96 → 0.78 -0.18 (2012-01-01 → 2012-12-01)

Busiest week: 2012-W21 (4 active mechanisms) · Quietest: 2012-W02 (1 active)

Synthesis

(historical period — no Claude narration run)

Decompose

2012-Q1
quarterly board
2012-Q2
quarterly board
2012-Q3
quarterly board
2012-Q4
quarterly board