Macro Intelligence · Quarterly board

2012-Q1

Quarterly aggregate · 13 week regimes · drill into children for finer reads

Quarterly

2012-Q1 — 13 weeks across 3 months

Dashboard from the materialized period object + the de-blended store. Actuals are deterministic; synthesis (below) is narrated for the current period only.

Headline — where each bloc stands

Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder

Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.

Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion

Indicators — pick a metric, compare blocs · recession shading + crosshair

One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.

Per-region breakdown — 2012-Q1 vs 2011-Q4, with trend

Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper

A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value

B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric

Whole-board snapshot — parallel coordinates · parallel coordinates

Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2012-Q1).

Audit trail — detail tables

📊 Data verdicts · 13 week(s) in period · deterministic, no narration

Standing regime — start → end, per bloc

United States

overheating / late-cycle · held all period

China

overheating / late-cycle · held all period

Euro area

stagflationary → disinflationary stall

W03: stagflationary → disinflationary stall

Japan

deflation watch · held all period

Mechanisms fired across the period

United States

M5 ×5 growth_acceleration
M9 ×1 yield_spike

China

M5 ×8 growth_acceleration

Euro area

M3 ×2 policy_easing
M13 ×2 contraction_easing
M6 ×1 growth_slowdown

Japan

M1 ×5 inflation_surprise_up

Net indicator moves (first refreshed value → last)

United States

core_cpi: 0.21 → 0.10 -0.11 (2012-01-01 → 2012-03-16)
core_pce: 2.06 → 2.04 -0.02 (2012-01-01 → 2012-03-01)
cpi_yoy: 3.01 → 2.90 -0.11 (2012-01-01 → 2012-03-16)
gdp: 3.40 → 3.00 -0.40 (2012-01-01 → 2012-02-29)
pmi_mfg: 52.70 → 52.40 -0.30 (2011-12-01 → 2012-03-01)
pmi_svc: 52.00 → 57.30 +5.30 (2011-12-05 → 2012-03-05)
policy_rate: 0.25 → 0.25 0.00 (2012-01-01 → 2012-03-25)
slope_2s10s: 1.64 → 1.88 +0.24 (2011-12-30 → 2012-03-23)
unemployment: 8.30 → 8.30 0.00 (2012-01-01 → 2012-03-09)
yield_10y: 1.89 → 2.25 +0.36 (2011-12-30 → 2012-03-23)
yield_2y: 0.25 → 0.37 +0.12 (2011-12-30 → 2012-03-23)

China

cpi_yoy: 4.20 → 3.20 -1.00 (2011-12-09 → 2012-03-09)
gdp: 9.10 → 8.90 -0.20 (2011-10-18 → 2012-01-17)
pmi_mfg: 50.50 → 53.10 +2.60 (2012-01-01 → 2012-03-01)
pmi_svc: 56.30 → 57.30 +1.00 (2012-01-01 → 2012-03-01)
slope_2s10s: 0.61 → 0.58 -0.03 (2011-12-31 → 2012-03-23)
yield_10y: 3.42 → 3.53 +0.11 (2011-12-31 → 2012-03-23)
yield_2y: 2.81 → 2.94 +0.14 (2011-12-31 → 2012-03-23)

Euro area

cpi_yoy: 3.00 → 2.70 -0.30 (2011-12-15 → 2012-03-14)
gdp: 0.30 → 0.50 +0.20 (2012-01-01 → 2012-03-01)
pmi_mfg: 46.90 → 47.70 +0.80 (2011-12-15 → 2012-03-22)
pmi_svc: 48.30 → 48.70 +0.40 (2011-12-15 → 2012-03-22)
policy_rate: 1.00 → 1.00 0.00 (2011-12-08 → 2012-03-08)
unemployment: 10.30 → 10.70 +0.40 (2011-11-30 → 2012-03-01)
yield_10y: 3.90 → 3.28 -0.62 (2012-01-01 → 2012-03-01)

Japan

core_cpi: -1.10 → -0.90 +0.20 (2011-12-26 → 2012-02-25)
cpi_yoy: -0.50 → 0.10 +0.60 (2011-12-26 → 2012-02-25)
policy_rate: 0.10 → 0.10 0.00 (2011-12-21 → 2012-03-13)
unemployment: 4.50 → 4.50 0.00 (2011-12-30 → 2012-02-29)
yield_10y: 0.96 → 0.97 +0.01 (2012-01-01 → 2012-03-01)

Busiest week: 2011-W52 (3 active mechanisms) · Quietest: 2012-W02 (1 active)

Synthesis

(historical period — no Claude narration run)

Decompose