Macro Intelligence · Quarterly board

2012-Q2

Quarterly aggregate · 13 week regimes · drill into children for finer reads

Quarterly

2012-Q2 — 13 weeks across 3 months

Dashboard from the materialized period object + the de-blended store. Actuals are deterministic; synthesis (below) is narrated for the current period only.

Headline — where each bloc stands

Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder

Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.

Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion

Indicators — pick a metric, compare blocs · recession shading + crosshair

One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.

Per-region breakdown — 2012-Q2 vs 2012-Q1, with trend

Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper

A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value

B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric

Whole-board snapshot — parallel coordinates · parallel coordinates

Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2012-Q2).

Audit trail — detail tables

📊 Data verdicts · 13 week(s) in period · deterministic, no narration

Standing regime — start → end, per bloc

United States

expansion, at target · held all period

China

overheating / late-cycle · held all period

Euro area

disinflationary stall · held all period

Japan

deflation watch · held all period

Mechanisms fired across the period

United States

M5 ×8 growth_acceleration

China

no fires

Euro area

M6 ×4 growth_slowdown
M9 ×4 yield_spike

Japan

M1 ×9 inflation_surprise_up

Net indicator moves (first refreshed value → last)

United States

core_cpi: 0.19 → 0.20 +0.01 (2012-04-01 → 2012-06-14)
core_pce: 1.97 → 1.82 -0.15 (2012-04-01 → 2012-06-01)
cpi_yoy: 2.27 → 1.70 -0.57 (2012-04-01 → 2012-06-14)
gdp: 1.80 → 1.90 +0.10 (2012-04-01 → 2012-05-31)
pmi_mfg: 52.40 → 53.50 +1.10 (2012-03-01 → 2012-06-01)
pmi_svc: 57.30 → 53.70 -3.60 (2012-03-05 → 2012-06-05)
policy_rate: 0.25 → 0.25 0.00 (2012-04-01 → 2012-06-24)
slope_2s10s: 1.90 → 1.38 -0.52 (2012-03-30 → 2012-06-22)
unemployment: 8.20 → 8.20 0.00 (2012-04-01 → 2012-06-01)
yield_10y: 2.23 → 1.69 -0.54 (2012-03-30 → 2012-06-22)
yield_2y: 0.33 → 0.31 -0.02 (2012-03-30 → 2012-06-22)

China

cpi_yoy: 3.20 → 3.00 -0.20 (2012-03-09 → 2012-06-09)
gdp: 8.90 → 8.10 -0.80 (2012-01-17 → 2012-04-13)
pmi_mfg: 53.30 → 50.20 -3.10 (2012-04-01 → 2012-06-01)
pmi_svc: 58.00 → 55.20 -2.80 (2012-04-01 → 2012-06-01)
slope_2s10s: 0.64 → 0.97 +0.32 (2012-04-01 → 2012-06-21)
yield_10y: 3.52 → 3.40 -0.12 (2012-04-01 → 2012-06-21)
yield_2y: 2.88 → 2.43 -0.44 (2012-04-01 → 2012-06-21)

Euro area

cpi_yoy: 2.60 → 2.40 -0.20 (2012-03-30 → 2012-06-14)
gdp: 1.30 → -0.10 -1.40 (2012-04-01 → 2012-06-01)
pmi_mfg: 47.70 → 44.80 -2.90 (2012-03-22 → 2012-06-21)
pmi_svc: 48.70 → 46.80 -1.90 (2012-03-22 → 2012-06-21)
policy_rate: 1.00 → 1.00 0.00 (2012-03-08 → 2012-06-06)
unemployment: 10.70 → 11.00 +0.30 (2012-03-01 → 2012-06-01)
yield_10y: 3.38 → 3.41 +0.02 (2012-04-01 → 2012-06-01)

Japan

core_cpi: -0.60 → -0.30 +0.30 (2012-03-27 → 2012-05-26)
cpi_yoy: 0.30 → 0.40 +0.10 (2012-03-27 → 2012-05-26)
policy_rate: 0.10 → 0.10 0.00 (2012-03-13 → 2012-06-15)
unemployment: 4.50 → 4.50 0.00 (2012-03-31 → 2012-05-30)
yield_10y: 0.91 → 0.79 -0.12 (2012-04-01 → 2012-06-01)

Busiest week: 2012-W21 (4 active mechanisms) · Quietest: 2012-W22 (1 active)

Synthesis

(historical period — no Claude narration run)

Decompose