Macro Intelligence · Quarterly board

2012-Q4

Quarterly aggregate · 13 week regimes · drill into children for finer reads

Quarterly

2012-Q4 — 13 weeks across 3 months

Dashboard from the materialized period object + the de-blended store. Actuals are deterministic; synthesis (below) is narrated for the current period only.

Headline — where each bloc stands

Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder

Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.

Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion

Indicators — pick a metric, compare blocs · recession shading + crosshair

One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.

Per-region breakdown — 2012-Q4 vs 2012-Q3, with trend

Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper

A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value

B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric

Whole-board snapshot — parallel coordinates · parallel coordinates

Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2012-Q4).

Audit trail — detail tables

📊 Data verdicts · 13 week(s) in period · deterministic, no narration

Standing regime — start → end, per bloc

United States

stall-speed, at target · held all period

China

stall-speed, at target · held all period

Euro area

disinflationary stall · held all period

Japan

deflation watch · held all period

Mechanisms fired across the period

United States

M5 ×4 growth_acceleration
M6 ×4 growth_slowdown

China

M5 ×8 growth_acceleration

Euro area

M13 ×2 contraction_easing
M6 ×1 growth_slowdown

Japan

no fires

Net indicator moves (first refreshed value → last)

United States

core_cpi: 0.16 → 0.10 -0.06 (2012-10-01 → 2012-12-14)
core_pce: 1.89 → 1.69 -0.20 (2012-10-01 → 2012-12-01)
cpi_yoy: 2.16 → 1.80 -0.36 (2012-10-01 → 2012-12-15)
gdp: 0.50 → 3.10 +2.60 (2012-10-01 → 2012-12-20)
pmi_mfg: 51.50 → 49.50 -2.00 (2012-10-01 → 2012-12-03)
pmi_svc: 55.10 → 54.70 -0.40 (2012-10-03 → 2012-12-05)
policy_rate: 0.25 → 0.25 0.00 (2012-10-07 → 2012-12-30)
slope_2s10s: 1.48 → 1.46 -0.02 (2012-10-05 → 2012-12-28)
unemployment: 7.80 → 7.70 -0.10 (2012-10-05 → 2012-12-07)
yield_10y: 1.75 → 1.73 -0.02 (2012-10-05 → 2012-12-28)
yield_2y: 0.27 → 0.27 0.00 (2012-10-05 → 2012-12-28)

China

cpi_yoy: 2.00 → 2.00 0.00 (2012-09-09 → 2012-12-09)
gdp: 7.60 → 7.40 -0.20 (2012-07-13 → 2012-10-18)
pmi_mfg: 50.20 → 50.60 +0.40 (2012-10-01 → 2012-12-01)
pmi_svc: 53.70 → 55.60 +1.90 (2012-10-03 → 2012-12-03)
slope_2s10s: 0.53 → 0.51 -0.01 (2012-09-29 → 2012-12-28)
yield_10y: 3.46 → 3.58 +0.12 (2012-09-29 → 2012-12-28)
yield_2y: 2.93 → 3.06 +0.13 (2012-09-29 → 2012-12-28)

Euro area

cpi_yoy: 2.70 → 2.20 -0.50 (2012-09-28 → 2012-12-14)
gdp: 0.70 → -0.20 -0.90 (2012-10-01 → 2012-12-01)
pmi_mfg: 46.10 → 46.30 +0.20 (2012-10-01 → 2012-12-14)
pmi_svc: 46.10 → 47.80 +1.70 (2012-10-03 → 2012-12-14)
policy_rate: 0.75 → 0.75 0.00 (2012-10-04 → 2012-12-06)
unemployment: 11.40 → 11.70 +0.30 (2012-10-01 → 2012-11-30)
yield_10y: 2.31 → 2.10 -0.21 (2012-10-01 → 2012-12-01)

Japan

core_cpi: -0.50 → -0.50 0.00 (2012-09-25 → 2012-12-26)
cpi_yoy: -0.40 → -0.20 +0.20 (2012-09-25 → 2012-12-26)
policy_rate: 0.10 → 0.10 0.00 (2012-10-05 → 2012-12-20)
unemployment: 4.20 → 4.10 -0.10 (2012-09-29 → 2012-12-30)
yield_10y: 0.76 → 0.78 +0.02 (2012-10-01 → 2012-12-01)

Busiest week: 2012-W43 (3 active mechanisms) · Quietest: 2012-W44 (1 active)

Synthesis

(historical period — no Claude narration run)

Decompose