Macro Intelligence · Quarterly board

2012-Q3

Quarterly aggregate · 14 week regimes · drill into children for finer reads

Quarterly

2012-Q3 — 14 weeks across 3 months

Dashboard from the materialized period object + the de-blended store. Actuals are deterministic; synthesis (below) is narrated for the current period only.

Headline — where each bloc stands

Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder

Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.

Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion

Indicators — pick a metric, compare blocs · recession shading + crosshair

One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.

Per-region breakdown — 2012-Q3 vs 2012-Q2, with trend

Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper

A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value

B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric

Whole-board snapshot — parallel coordinates · parallel coordinates

Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2012-Q3).

Audit trail — detail tables

📊 Data verdicts · 14 week(s) in period · deterministic, no narration

Standing regime — start → end, per bloc

United States

expansion, at target → stall-speed, at target

W27: expansion, at target → stall-speed, at target

China

overheating / late-cycle → stall-speed, at target

W28: overheating / late-cycle → stall-speed, at target

Euro area

disinflationary stall · held all period

Japan

deflation watch · held all period

Mechanisms fired across the period

United States

M6 ×4 growth_slowdown
M9 ×2 yield_spike

China

M13 ×5 contraction_easing
M6 ×4 growth_slowdown

Euro area

M13 ×7 contraction_easing
M3 ×4 policy_easing
M6 ×2 growth_slowdown

Japan

M2 ×4 inflation_surprise_down

Net indicator moves (first refreshed value → last)

United States

core_cpi: 0.15 → 0.10 -0.05 (2012-07-01 → 2012-09-14)
core_pce: 1.77 → 1.69 -0.08 (2012-07-01 → 2012-09-01)
cpi_yoy: 1.42 → 1.70 +0.28 (2012-07-01 → 2012-09-14)
gdp: 0.60 → 1.30 +0.70 (2012-07-01 → 2012-09-27)
pmi_mfg: 53.50 → 49.60 -3.90 (2012-06-01 → 2012-09-04)
pmi_svc: 53.70 → 53.70 0.00 (2012-06-05 → 2012-09-06)
policy_rate: 0.25 → 0.25 0.00 (2012-07-01 → 2012-09-30)
slope_2s10s: 1.34 → 1.42 +0.08 (2012-06-29 → 2012-09-28)
unemployment: 8.20 → 8.10 -0.10 (2012-07-01 → 2012-09-07)
yield_10y: 1.67 → 1.65 -0.02 (2012-06-29 → 2012-09-28)
yield_2y: 0.33 → 0.23 -0.10 (2012-06-29 → 2012-09-28)

China

cpi_yoy: 3.00 → 2.00 -1.00 (2012-06-09 → 2012-09-09)
gdp: 8.10 → 7.60 -0.50 (2012-04-13 → 2012-07-13)
pmi_mfg: 50.10 → 49.80 -0.30 (2012-07-01 → 2012-09-01)
pmi_svc: 56.70 → 56.30 -0.40 (2012-07-01 → 2012-09-03)
slope_2s10s: 0.97 → 0.53 -0.45 (2012-06-29 → 2012-09-29)
yield_10y: 3.33 → 3.46 +0.13 (2012-06-29 → 2012-09-29)
yield_2y: 2.35 → 2.93 +0.58 (2012-06-29 → 2012-09-29)

Euro area

cpi_yoy: 2.40 → 2.70 +0.30 (2012-06-29 → 2012-09-28)
gdp: -0.10 → 0.40 +0.50 (2012-07-01 → 2012-09-01)
pmi_mfg: 44.80 → 46.00 +1.20 (2012-06-21 → 2012-09-20)
pmi_svc: 46.80 → 46.00 -0.80 (2012-06-21 → 2012-09-20)
policy_rate: 1.00 → 0.75 -0.25 (2012-06-06 → 2012-09-06)
unemployment: 11.00 → 11.30 +0.30 (2012-06-01 → 2012-08-31)
yield_10y: 3.25 → 2.42 -0.83 (2012-07-01 → 2012-09-01)

Japan

core_cpi: -0.60 → -0.50 +0.10 (2012-06-25 → 2012-09-25)
cpi_yoy: 0.20 → -0.40 -0.60 (2012-06-25 → 2012-09-25)
policy_rate: 0.10 → 0.10 0.00 (2012-06-15 → 2012-09-19)
unemployment: 4.40 → 4.20 -0.20 (2012-06-29 → 2012-09-29)
yield_10y: 0.78 → 0.76 -0.02 (2012-07-01 → 2012-09-01)

Busiest week: 2012-W27 (4 active mechanisms) · Quietest: 2012-W31 (1 active)

Synthesis

(historical period — no Claude narration run)

Decompose