Macro Intelligence · Yearly board

2011

Yearly aggregate · 52 week regimes · drill into children for finer reads

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Yearly

2011 — 52 weeks across 4 quarters

Dashboard from the materialized period object + the de-blended store. Actuals are deterministic; synthesis (below) is narrated for the current period only.

Headline — where each bloc stands

Regime scatters — connected over time · connected scatter / Gapminder

Per bloc: the path over recent periods; filled dot = this period, arrow from the prior. First is the growth×inflation map with named, shaded quadrants.

Animated regime map — growth × inflation over time · Gapminder motion

Indicators — pick a metric, compare blocs · recession shading + crosshair

One pane; switch the metric, all blocs overlaid on a comparable basis (GDP shown YoY for every bloc). Grey bands = US GDP-contraction quarters. Hover for a readout.

Per-region breakdown — 2011 vs 2010, with trend

Change views — table-lens & slope · Datawrapper

A Table-lens — color = change · sparkline = trend · text = dated value
B Slope — prior → now per bloc, one panel per metric

Whole-board snapshot — parallel coordinates · parallel coordinates

Each bloc crosses all metric axes (min–max normalized across blocs for 2011).

Audit trail — detail tables
📊 Data verdicts · 52 week(s) in period · deterministic, no narration

Standing regime — start → end, per bloc

United States
expansion, at target → overheating / late-cycle
W13: expansion, at target → overheating / late-cycle · W15: overheating / late-cycle → goldilocks / reflation · W17: goldilocks / reflation → overheating / late-cycle
China
overheating / late-cycle · held all period
Euro area
expansion, at target → stagflationary
W15: expansion, at target → goldilocks / reflation · W17: goldilocks / reflation → overheating / late-cycle · W22: overheating / late-cycle → goldilocks / reflation · W29: goldilocks / reflation → disinflationary stall · W30: disinflationary stall → stall-speed, at target · W39: stall-speed, at target → overheating / late-cycle · W43: overheating / late-cycle → stagflationary
Japan
deflation watch · held all period

Mechanisms fired across the period

United States
  • M5 ×25 growth_acceleration
  • M9 ×3 yield_spike
China
  • M5 ×12 growth_acceleration
  • M6 ×4 growth_slowdown
Euro area
  • M9 ×17 yield_spike
  • M5 ×8 growth_acceleration
  • M4 ×8 policy_tightening
  • M6 ×8 growth_slowdown
  • M3 ×8 policy_easing
  • M13 ×2 contraction_easing
Japan
  • M1 ×17 inflation_surprise_up
  • M2 ×10 inflation_surprise_down

Net indicator moves (first refreshed value → last)

United States
  • core_cpi: 0.21 → 0.20 -0.01 (2011-01-01 → 2011-12-16)
  • core_pce: 1.12 → 1.97 +0.85 (2011-01-01 → 2011-12-01)
  • cpi_yoy: 1.70 → 3.40 +1.70 (2011-01-01 → 2011-12-15)
  • gdp: -0.90 → 1.80 +2.70 (2011-01-01 → 2011-12-22)
  • pmi_mfg: 56.60 → 52.70 -3.90 (2010-12-01 → 2011-12-01)
  • pmi_svc: 55.00 → 52.00 -3.00 (2010-12-03 → 2011-12-05)
  • policy_rate: 0.25 → 0.25 0.00 (2011-01-02 → 2011-12-25)
  • slope_2s10s: 2.69 → 1.75 -0.94 (2010-12-31 → 2011-12-23)
  • unemployment: 9.10 → 8.60 -0.50 (2011-01-01 → 2011-12-02)
  • yield_10y: 3.30 → 2.03 -1.27 (2010-12-31 → 2011-12-23)
  • yield_2y: 0.61 → 0.28 -0.33 (2010-12-31 → 2011-12-23)
China
  • cpi_yoy: 5.10 → 4.20 -0.90 (2010-12-11 → 2011-12-09)
  • gdp: 9.80 → 9.10 -0.70 (2011-01-20 → 2011-10-18)
  • pmi_mfg: 52.90 → 50.30 -2.60 (2011-01-01 → 2011-12-01)
  • pmi_svc: 58.80 → 55.90 -2.90 (2011-01-01 → 2011-12-01)
  • slope_2s10s: 0.51 → 0.63 +0.12 (2010-12-31 → 2011-12-23)
  • yield_10y: 3.88 → 3.48 -0.40 (2010-12-31 → 2011-12-23)
  • yield_2y: 3.37 → 2.85 -0.52 (2010-12-31 → 2011-12-23)
Euro area
  • cpi_yoy: 1.90 → 3.00 +1.10 (2010-12-16 → 2011-12-15)
  • gdp: 0.60 → 0.10 -0.50 (2011-01-01 → 2011-12-01)
  • pmi_mfg: 56.80 → 46.90 -9.90 (2010-12-16 → 2011-12-15)
  • pmi_svc: 53.70 → 48.30 -5.40 (2010-12-16 → 2011-12-15)
  • policy_rate: 1.00 → 1.00 0.00 (2010-12-02 → 2011-12-08)
  • unemployment: 10.10 → 10.30 +0.20 (2010-11-30 → 2011-11-30)
  • yield_10y: 3.93 → 4.09 +0.16 (2011-01-01 → 2011-12-01)
Japan
  • core_cpi: -0.90 → -1.00 -0.10 (2010-12-26 → 2011-11-25)
  • cpi_yoy: 0.10 → -0.20 -0.30 (2010-12-26 → 2011-11-25)
  • policy_rate: 0.10 → 0.10 0.00 (2010-12-21 → 2011-12-21)
  • unemployment: 5.00 → 4.40 -0.60 (2010-12-30 → 2011-11-29)
  • yield_10y: 1.21 → 0.97 -0.24 (2011-01-01 → 2011-12-01)

Busiest week: 2011-W05 (5 active mechanisms) · Quietest: 2011-W18 (0 active)

Synthesis

(historical period — no Claude narration run)

Decompose

2011-Q1
quarterly board
2011-Q2
quarterly board
2011-Q3
quarterly board
2011-Q4
quarterly board